Thursday, November 12, 2015

Day 3, Going Backwards, Comment Responses

First let's do some comment responses.

Tony Bigcharles said:
 
even if u get $10,000 once u get it, u will see its not enough, still worry ill be broke

Tony you are degen machine player and I am not.  My idea of being a  machine player is $5 in a penny slot machine from time to time just for fun.  If I go broke with 30 buyins then obviously something's wrong with my game. 


Pokerdogg said:
Sounds like a good plan playing 10NL cash. 2NL is too low to try and build a roll up. Considering you can reload in a few weeks, you don't need to be as conservative with BR management in NL cash game. Best of luck.

When you say you don't need to be too conservative does that mean you feel I can make the jumps to the higher levels with less than 30 buyins?   If so what would be your recommendatuon for the step up to $20NL?


Bradtastic said:
Pokerdogg has a point, unless your play changes if you happen to get short. It's not unreasonable to be down 6-10 buy-ins on a run bad night when 4 tabling. Down $60-100 can affect how people play hands, overbetting big hands preflop to avoid suckouts, or not calling huge implied on hands because the draws aren't coming in

Brad I've already seen how the swings can go.  Yesterday I was up $41 and ended up losing about $16 for the session nearly a 6 buyin turnaround.  If the swings can be 10 buyins multi-tabling 4 tables of No Limit cash games online then perhaps my thinking about 30 buyins is too small. 


lightning36 said:
I think someone mentioned once before putting some money toward large inexpensive tournaments. It might be the only way to get a significant bump to jump start your bankroll. Otherwise, you are at the mercy of rake, variance and the nasty beats that happen against poor players

And he also said:
Is it just me or does the plan keep changing? And as perhaps others have suggested, have you given thought to just stopping for now and building a bankroll you can really work with? Oftentimes people without sufficient funding change their game and are "scared money," which often has disastrous results

As soon as I can I am going to be playing at least a few tournaments each month live to see if we can boost up the bankroll.  As for the plan changing you are absolutely right.  It has changed and for various reasons, but I think I'm on the correct train of thought now because eventually grinding $1/$2 11 no limit cash games live is something that I've always wanted to do, but never thought I would be able to.  Iread about Rob's adventures and you and Nick, and Joel and I woukd think to myself damn I want to be able to do that but would always talk myself out of it telling myself I'm just a tournament player, I'm  not a cash game player, but finally decided there's nothing I can't do in poker without the priper dedication and if this is what I have trueky wanted fir quite sone time now, then I need to stop thinking it and start doing it.  A lot of times when you're so used to doing a certain thing it's a bit overwhelming to try to enter a brand new world.

And now on to the cash game report........... It sucks!!!   4900 hands and down 1.3 buyins. The problem is I don't know if it's me or is this typical of no limit cash games.  I did decide to make a slight change which I initialized last night and will continue with today.  It involves starting hand selection where I have moved a couple of hands from early position to middle position and a couple of hands for middle position to late position. Bradtastic says that 6 to 10 buyin swings are not  uncommon.  I experienced a little bit of that in yesterday's session where I was up $41 and ended up losing $16 for the session.  Flop top 2 with AK, but find I'm up against a set, an opponent with 77 getting a 2 outer on the river for a set, things like that. I'm playing an aggressive style, I'm playing a tight game, but sometimes it seems like I'm just getting unlucky.  If this is normal short-term variance then I can accept that, but if its something to do with me then I need to figure out what it is.  To any reader that knows' how long or how many hands does a typical struggle period last.  Is 5000 hands absolutely nothing and just keep playing without concerning myself about it?  I guess my question is how many hands would be needed showing a loss before you start to say there's a problem here.  Also how many hands do you need to have played to ascertain a true earn rate?  If any knowledgeable readers have input on this I would appreciate it.

Going to get started on the tables at 11 a.m. this morning which is usually typical as I started at 11 or 12 the last couple of days, but I'm going to increase my 10 hour sessions to 12 hours.  That will definitely guarantee me a minimum 2000 hands a day.  I'm hoping the limited bankroll can hold out because I've got a lot of bonus money headed my way within the next month actually less than that.   Going into last night I had $120 of uncleared bonus on this site and cleared $10 of it last night, for every hundred points you get $10.  According to my calculations I can clear $80 before its expiration on December 5th not to mention I've been in contact with Support because they have a promotion called The Climb going on which has not automatically been offered to me but should be within 72 hours and it will be retroactive to 2 days ago.  If the bankroll can hold out according to my calculations I should get about 600 points which should be good for $50 cash and an additional $20 in bonus money which I can have cleared in 6 days flat.   

I know there has been a lot of changes to plans and procedures lately, but I'm staying on this one.   This will get me to be doing what I truly want to do and just like live, the online the cash game players seem to get all the perks.  That's all for now.  Time to hit the tables in 30 minutes.  Take care, have a great day, and I'll see you at the tables. 


8 comments:

  1. You are smashing your head against the wall for 5000 hands. I think the biggest thing you need right now is to do some study on your game. If you can't beat a $2 tournament frequently how do you expect to beat players risking more money? The difficulty only goes up the more you have on the table. You are dedicating 8-12 hours a day to playing. You should try to change that to 7-11 hours playing and 1 hour of solid studying. That is going to help your bankroll more than anything else.

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  2. I'm absolutely convinced my play is not what's causing this. I am running into some vicious bad beats. Already today down $22 in the first 570 hands. my AK got beat by AJ we were all in preflop, I hit a full house and still lost, and I flopped trips and got 2 outted on the turn. There is no possible way to prevent that

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    Replies
    1. Even the best players study all the time. You have the time to do it and it only takes 1 small change to switch you from being .94 to being 1.01 BB per hour. It's a recommendation. You said yourself that you played primarily tournament poker. That plays way different than cash games.

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    2. Good points there Steven. Studying is essential if one wants to succeed in playing poker professionally. I used to spend at least 10 hours a week working on my game the first few years. Finding it hard to study much nowadays, but I do carry my latest book purchase with me sometimes.

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  3. Be careful about long sessions. It's better to play great for 5-6 hours than good-mediocre for 10-12 when on a limited bankroll. I know you want the bonuses, but it doesn't help to lose >$10 to get $10. I study the game at least a few hours a day and break up sessions with Hearthstone.

    It's hard to determine anything in 5000 hands. Maybe 50,000. If you trend up or down after 50K hands, you can determine if you're actually beating the games or not.

    I know some decent players who've had 20 buy-in downswings over two days with numerous set over set & Aces cracked type spots. Sometimes when it rains it pours. I've also gone up 30 buyins over two days from being on the badass end of variance, and I don't play that many hours.

    You can also play the SNGs and $1 Big Buck if you're better at tourney play. Your bankroll can handle that. Cash plays much different (obv because of no blind increases or ante). You can pick your spots. And be careful with raising mediocre hands with short stacks behind you. About half or fewer players on tables seem to play with an topped-off 100BB stack; the ones who do are usually tougher regs. Keep track of both auto-top off and min-buy players.

    Also be careful not to dismiss all run bad spots as just bad beats. Analyzing the hand afterward can reveal misplayed streets that would've kept you out of those spots. Sometimes it is just run bad: https://instagram.com/p/9_Bpewl6Q-/ - in that spot it was a three-way all-in flop. I got my money in good against them, got a bad river. It's seems like there's nothing to learn from that hand, but that's not quite true. I made notes on both players to remind me that they put there money in bad like slot machine players (had a few examples of them doing that) so I now know I can call them down with top pair decent kicker a lot of the time.

    Also noteworthy: just assume I always have the nuts. https://instagram.com/p/9_AEqzF6eS/
    :-)

    Last, if you can beat 20NL online, you can crush $1-2 live. My internet due to weather in Reno is too crappy at the moment to play actual money on WSOP, but I play $1-2 live. It's easier than 10NL online I think. Maybe slightly harder than 2NL. No problems really grinding it with 25 buyins. I've been lucky enough to catch some bonus hands, too, which is nice because Royals and quads online generally aren't worth much. I'm probably ahead of the bonus $1 rakes.

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    Replies
    1. Good points. When I play online cash games, I usually do it in 2-3 hours sessions. I usually play 10-12 tables, and it gets too exhausting any longer than that.

      I have often seen the 50,000 hands mentioned as the minimum for estimating online winrate. FWIW, I have 30,000 hands of 10nl @15BB/100, so I think 10BB/100 is certainly doable.

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    2. I average around 15 per 100 live, which is maybe 2.75 hrs. For a few months straight it was like 10BB/35. Online, 10BB/100 is kind of a required minimum to make it worth the time. That's less than $1 per hour per table. I get just under 1BB per hand at 2NL, and it's not that hard. People spew buy-ins at 2NL especially late at night. They just don't play with proper frequencies there and overvalue all of their hands. Things like 3&4bets are so rare, if I'm OOP with a weak opening hand, I can just fold almost 100% of the time. Countless times I've run my Aces and Kings into crap like KJo, KQs and ATs all-in preflop. People don't really make those mistakes above 2NL and its worth a lot. Almost no one exploits leaks.

      So at the moment, I can make more at 2NL than people make at 10NL with almost no downswing. On a bad day I'm down about 100-150BB per hour, 4 tables. On a good day, I'm up about 400. It's not really any decent money; I play more for fun and hand reading practice because a lot of the 2NL plays happen at $1-2 live. People doing stuff like calling big flop all-ins with middle pair plus runner-runner draws, sometimes to the nuts but not always.

      Currently I think I have around 110K hands on WSOP.

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  4. Hi Flushdraw, when I said you can be less conservative in BR management, I meant it is fine to play 10nl with your current bankroll right now. I don't think there is any hard and fast rule for this. If I were in your situation, I probably will keep playing 10nl until I have at least 20 buyins for the next level before making the jump. In this case let's say you move up to 20nh @ $400. I would set a loss limit at $200 and drop back down to 10nl if you get that low.

    I wouldn't do this above the 20nl level though for several reasons. At 10nl and 20nl level, your ability to replenish your BR is fairly good. Once you get above 20nl, you can't really replenish your BR at that level and you have to drop back to 10nl. Another reason is the game gets tougher online when you get to 50nl and above. Remember the math analysis from before, as one's winrate gets lower, the bankroll requirement gets higher for the same risk of ruin. When you play higher, your winrate will drop, and it becomes more and more risky to play with a short bankroll (in terms of the buyins).

    By the way, you can consider buying in short to reduce the risk a bit. I don't mean play short stack strategy, more like buying in at 50 to 60 BB level. The play is almost the same as 100BB, but you get almost the double of buyins in case you get on an unlucky streak.

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