Tuesday, November 24, 2015

Study And Research And Projections

Unless a last minute household disaster arises, which since I'm putting out $523 out of an $822 check if it does they will have to figure it out some other way, I will be making a deposit at Planet Hollywood onto WSOP.com on December 3rd, 4th, 5th, or 6th in the amount of $150, a full 15 buyins for the $10NL cash games which I will grind from 12pm to 12am, 4 tabling provided 4 tables are available, each day I play.  I will obviously take breaks during the course of these "work days", but it will equate to a minimum 2000 hands of poker played each playing day.  Unfortunately, the bonuses availavable will expire by that time, but nothing I can do about that.  I may have $10 coming to me from "The Climb" but will not know for sure until December hits. 

Sunday night I finished 30th in the $500 invitational freeroll for a $2.  Played some $2NL cash games that night and Monday and earned $1.28 in a couple of hundred hands.  Monday night I finished 3rd out of 600 in the nightly $100 freeroll for $7.40.  Ended Monday night with a balance of $10.68. 
A special shout out to "Bradtastic" for his suggestion on changing the cards on the site to a specific style.  I have done so and the numbers are so huge with the specific style of cards he recommended using, 4 tabling and seeing everything will not be an issue in any way so thanks Brad, much appreciated. 

I can't wait to get started grinding, in December, but I've been using my time for some study and also research on win rates and bankroll management requirements.   Let's talk win rates.  First off, assuming I actually show some profits in December, I was way off about expected earn rates previously.  If you recall I said my goal was 10bb/100.  That was so far off the mark I wasn't even close.  In doing some research on this very subject I came across a consensus from some respectable sources that says and shows 4bb/100 to 6bb/100 is a more reasonable expectation.  Therefore when I start grinding full time again my expectation will be right in the middle at 5bb/100.  

As for bankroll management requirements those seem to fluctuate wildly depending on which source it comes from.  For live play I saw recommendations as low as 10 buyins, I saw some for 20 or 25 buyins, a couple others stated 40 buyins, and finally I found one recommendation for 50 buyins.   Resources for these were Poker Atlas, Poker Listings, 2 + 2, and highstakesdb.  The general consensus stated that the overall average professional full time players settle on is 40 buyins.  I'm not even going to bother discussing 10 buyins for the live cash game.  Considering the fact that I want my ROR or risk of ruin, to be as low as possible and if it's good enough for the pros its good enough for me I think 40 is a good number.  

The online consensus says that 15-20 buyins should be sufficient, but I don't mind erring on the side of caution on something like this so whether online or live I am going with the 40 buyin number and although I am starting out with 15 buyins that's okay because that's on the low end of acceptability, just not completely in my comfort zone, but at the same time I do not mind earning my way into that said comfort zone. 

For my study time I have begun utilizing some Ed Miller approaches.  Opening up my range, and while I will never be the LAG that he may suggest I have opened up my range while remaining a tight aggressive player.  I have also seriously increased that aggression by raising and isolating limpers with hands that previously I would have thought to be moderate holdings at best, but when you are isolating limpers and creating a heads up or even three to the flop situation many times those moderate holdings are indeed the best hand going in.  Whereas before with a couple of limpers I would have limped along with a KJo I am firing raises 5.5 - 6.5 times the blind when in position.  Many times it takes down the pot right then and there and usually worst case scenario it puts me in a heads up position.   I am also opening up my range in what I will open raise with in the cutoff and on the button.   Previously, especially taking a $10NL game where blinds are only $0.15 I was of the opinion why fight for a lousy $0.15, but Ed Miller in one of the articles I read specifically addresses this and after reading that article I realize that my thinking was incorrect on that for as he points out those blinds will add up over the course of time or I guess you could say over the long run as it so often the case about everything in poker.  In tournament play it's much easier to know whether or not to do these things because the blinds raise every so often and keep raising, but making this transition to cash game play while I always knew elements and approaches in cash games are different than in a tournament I am realizing they are even more different than I originally expected or suspected.  Utilizing these approaches has shown me a small profit so far in the cash games and also utilizing these approaches in the tournament I think was a big part to my finishing 3rd out of 600 players in the $100 freeroll.
 
The only area I could be considered a bit stubborn is my refusal to drop to lower than $10NL once I make the deposit.  Although I'm playing a little bit of $2NL right now with the few dollars I have on the site there is no way I will make the drop down lower than $10NL once the deposit is made.  The fact of the matter is I can replenish it if I have to each month and $10NL is the lowest I find acceptable.

The earn rate or should I say the new reasonable expected earn rate means it is going to take longer to accomplish final goals than I first anticipated.  First off I need $12k for the bankroll.   I won't need living expenses because the money I should be able to save from my disability payments each month will cover that.   Once I am making decent monthly earnings from the live cash games I will then be able  to tell disability they can keep their money and that I no longer need it.  Assuming I am successful making anywhere from $10-$20 per hour playing $1/$2 live I cannot for the life of me believe they will look at it as gambling winnings and not earnings.  However, if they do decide to look at it as the former under their rules I will allow them to keep paying me each month, but I will be aboveboard with them about the situation.  I have no desire for a fraud charge a few years down the road and a subsequent stopover in a federal penitentiary.

According to my calculations I want to turn that $150 into $950, withdraw the original $150 that I deposited, leaving me $800 for $20NL which is 40 buyins and then all online poker will be played with pure earnings.  In order to earn that $800 at $10NL, with the projected earn rate should take 160,000 hands to accomplish.  Based on 2000 hands a day and hopefully grinding 12 hours even with breaks I will exceed that 2000 hands goal, but basing it on 2000 hands it should take me 80 playing days to accomplish.  

After that it gets tricky.  At $20NL the earn rate will drop to 4bb/100 and if I decide, when bankroll management rules allow, to play $50NL usually it is only two tables of that running so I would have to combine $20NL and $50NL to be able to 4 table.  $50NL I would expect the earn rate to drop to 3bb/100 and I have no desire to keep the amounts of money online it would take for $100NL so $50NL is as high as I will play online and even to do that I will need $2000.  To get to that point playing $20NL will require 150,000 hands played or 75 playing days.  So just to get to the $2000 mark will take at least 5 full months and thats if I never take a day off so according to my calculations I will not be at $2000 until approximately June 1st that is providing I actually have actual earnings doing this and that was not the case on my first try at the online cash game grind.  This just got very depressing very fast.  However during those nearly 8000 hands played I took 7 very bad beats that added up to ($78) in losses so if you take those away your looking at $38 in profits.  What a turnaround 7 little hands can make. 

It is quite obvious to me that I am going to have to add in the $3 deepstack rebuys as part of my daily play, but those things will cost $8.46 each and with four of them a day that is over $33 in entry fees each day.  Obviously there is no way in the world that I can realistically play those and grind the cash games utilizing the $150 deposit I'm going to make so I will be playing the $100 freeroll each and every night and all freeroll earnings from the nightly $100 freeroll and the weekly $500 invitational freeroll beginning in December will be utilized for an online tournament bankroll in an effort to grind some of the $3 deepstack rebuys.  I will also be using money left over each month over the next six months to be playing at least two or three $125 buyin live tournaments each month.   That's where the real boost can come from.  A win in one of those and we are talking thousands added to the bankroll in one shot. 

So that all for now.  It's after 3am and I'm going to be setting my alarm for 10 a.m. so that I can get on the tables and hopefully grind a  12 hour session tomorrow from 11 a.m. to 11 p.m. with the little over $10 that I have online.  I'm going to try to 4 table $2NL, but I only have 5 buyins so we will see what happens, but if you recall I made $25 initially at $2NL in just a thousand hands so anything can happen.   If I can earn anything doing this whatever earnings I have in November will be added to the $150 deposit being made in December.  Any additional cushion I can give myself at the $10NL tables in December I will gladly take.  Take care everyone, if I don't do another entry before Thursday I want to wish everyone who celebrates it the very happiest of Thanksgivings and I hope your day finds you surrounded with good family, good friends, and love and good times and as always, I'll see you at the tables.

2 comments:

  1. Hey Flushh, glad the card graphics change worked for you. On my 15" MBP I can play 6 tables with those cards, but have been sticking to four because for some reason my net gets sluggish on WSOP, and since the little snowstorm we had in Reno, it's been worse.

    I still think you can do better than 25BB/100 at 2NL, but it's obviously your call. I left earlier today to play Hearthstone because it was a little slow. Kinda like Sunday. Sunday I played for 2.5 hours and made $10.60. I like the games nice and soft and Ancer and a few others were making the games slightly tougher. When you were on my left on one table it made it harder to exploit people as well. Still haven't had a losing day in weeks at 2NL.

    Definitely check out the 2NL tables after 10pm. That's when people start really spewing money. It's not unusual to make $10 per hour between 10-midnight. Last week I started at just before 10pm and had at least $9 on each table by 11pm. Make sure you sit down with GrammaVegas. Habitual bluffer, calls with weak draws for stacks. SodaFlop seems to like to bluff in last position for full pot. There are a few people like DJVillain who will just open shove $2 every other hand, either preflop or post when he connects with the board in any way, has a runner-runner draw, or just as a bluff. Some of these people just seem to love giving away money.

    Last, I think the bankroll requirements for online are higher than live because the most profitable way to play is with auto top-off, but that means you'll always have a full stack at risk. (But it's worth it, because you'll catch stuff like Aces over Kings or sets vs two pair.) I think 40 buys is safe.

    You don't need that many at 2NL. I've never lost more than 5.5 at that level when I ran super cold; it happened once. I have dropped 4 a few times.

    Anyway, good luck. And if you we're at the same table, just remember that I always have it. Although I don't always catch runner-runner quad Kings. That was a small blind special.
    :-)

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  2. Not sure what add Miller recommends (and I would listen to him over me any day) but I hate the thought of ever limping or calling with KJo. I prefer to raise or fold my trouble hands (not pairs, non suited connectors and non suited aces). This makes post flop decisions easier as trouble hands typically only win small pots when others miss. Granted small stakes might be a little different. Only exception might be the hands like AQ facing an early position raise where you don't want to 3bet and fold a value hand to a 4bet but you're to strong to fold originally.

    Good luck. I see no issues playing 10NL.

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