Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Throw It To The Wind

So I really couldn't put together anything after winning that $2 tournament and ended up losing the $36.  Had a few extra expenses this month, but still had $170 I was ready to deposit online today, but that has now been cancelled.  The problem is those $3 rebuys that I was planning on grinding specifically.  50% of the field gets the initial rebuy to start with a double stack so if I don't do that then I am at a disadvantage to half the field.  There is a $4,500 addon at the first break which considering the blinds are only 40-80 or 50-100 it would be absolutely insane not to addon and adding in excess of 40 big blinds to your stack.  The problem is that makes the total cost of that tournament $8.46.  if I put the $170 online that gives me 20 buyins and thats all.  There are only a couple of $2 tournament during the day and the $1 tournament have so few people with just a couple of exceptions it doesn't make it worth it.  Besides, I don't want to play online anyway.    

So many ridiculous bad beats after winning that $2 tournament that I don't want to put any money on there.  Take the last $3 rebuy.  I have 77 and flop a full house.  Get it all in and I'm up against JJ.  Jack on the turn and jack on the river and I'm knocked out.  Flopped 2 pair twice and my opponent hits a 2 outer on the turn and knocked me out of two other ones.   Ran my KK into AA 3 times in 12 tournaments.  I guess it doesn't matter what online site you play on mathematical inprobability is commonplace, but  there's absolutely no enjoyment in playing online for me anymore.  I guess part of the reason is because I'm in Las Vegas now and love live play so much that online will never be the same to me again.  

$170 is not enough to do anything.  I don't want to play the electronic tables at the Plaza anymore and tournaments anywhere else it's going to be at least a $45 buy in and $5 a day for transportation costs.  By my calculations that gives me 3 tries somewhere.  Considered theowing $150 on a NL game, but thought better of it.  

I decided to return to 2/4 limit but not at the Nugget.  Gonna try it at the Orleans. Who knows maybe I'll make some money at the same time.  Probably not, but you never can tell.  All I know is right now grinding up a bankroll does not seem plausible in any way, shape, or form in any venue,  but if there is a possibility doing it from the very limited amount of extra money I have each month it's going to be at the 2/4 limit table.  The variance is less then tournaments, it's less than no limit insofar as major amounts of money being won or lost in one shot.  It's a slow climb, but what the hell I have time, and with that said, I'll see you at the tables. 

8 comments:

  1. FlushhDraw, poker can be such a soul sapper sometimes, especially when you are working with a tiny bankroll. You can make all the right decisions, and still get killed time and time again. It doesn't matter if it is live poker on online, it is all the same. I have been playing mostly online the last few months, and believe me, it can drive you bonkers sometimes. I have seen so many people hit their 2-4 outers against me the last week to last a lifetime. However, once I step back and consider how many hands per hour I play online, it is not surprising how beat up one can feel playing online. However, a couple of those days I feel totally abused by the deck and violated by the players, I look at my results and I only lost a little or broke even, that kind of puts things into perspective. I have seen every manner of bad beat playing live also in >10,000 hours of live poker, it just doesn't seem as bad when you only play 30 hands/hour.

    Having said all that, poker is all about making the right (and +ev) decisions. That applies to how you play each hand, risk/BR management, table selection, and game selection. Make enough of good decisions over time, and your BR will grow.

    As far as playing with a $170 bankroll, assuming you are equally proficient in all forms of poker online or live, there are a few ways you can grind up a BR. Online low stakes cash games, online MTTs, online SNGs, these are all good options. If you must play live, you can take a shot at tourneys (go big or go home, but don't pay 25-30% juice), you can put it all on the time for one shot at NL cash game, you can short stack a 1/1 game (I believe at least one place in Vegas spreads it). But 2/4 limit game, that is probably a very bad idea unless you can find a no rake home game. At any average casino, the rake makes the game virtually unbeatable. I hope you reconsider if your primary goal is to grind up your BR.

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  2. just bet the Broncos -6.5 against the Colts, if u arent going to work a p/t job to earn $$$$$$$ to spend on poker

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  3. 2/4 at any locals room, i.e. The Orleans, is a guaranteed loss. You will never come out on top after the rake and the BBJ chasing retirees. Your better off hitting a 1/2NL strip room game and playing like a total nit. You will get a hand paid off eventually, get up, relocate, rinse and repeat. Hit and run for small gains up and down the strip all day until you got a comfortable enough roll.

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  4. Why not just play micro cash games?

    play $0.02/$0.05..you'll have 40 buys in to work with if you have a roll of $200. Or even $0.01/$0.02 with $100. (I'm not even sure if these stakes are offered?)

    It seems like it's the only realistic (but difficult) way of truly grinding up a roll from almost nothing. You can try to take shots with that $170..and you might win a session or two...or even more...but you are pretty much delaying the inevitable and will go broke once an inevitable downswing occurs.

    Take shots at a higher level once you have 30 buy-ins at the next level and move down if you lose 5 buy-ins. You can also start mixing in some tournaments once your roll grows as it seems like you prefer tourny's over cash.

    Every other route including the $3 tournaments seems like it's just going to lead to going busto.

    Plus..if you can beat micro stakes then at least you know you can be a winning player...if you bust your 50 buy-in roll..then maybe poker for a living isn't your thing. Nothing wrong with that..poker is not easy..

    If you can turn the $200 to $4000 online let's say..then that is a really really good accomplishment...and you would for sure be able to beat $1/$2 live. At that point I would probably short buy in live 1/2...40*$100 buy-ins and try to make that work.

    Sounds like you are able to contribute $200 a month to your roll? I say...once a month just yolo it up and play a single $200 tourny as a treat.or maybe 4 seperate smaller tournies divided out weekly or whatever works for you..and think of your online balance as your real roll..and the $200 you spend on live tournies think of it as entertainment...Who knows..maybe you might win one? If you lose..it's just entertainment anyways..I guess it's the same thing as just taking shots...but just a different mindset if you bust...or just save up the $200/month until you have like $2000 saved up..if you can have discipline and keep yourself away from live tables..Why not try to turn $200 to $2000 in 10 months online..while also saving up $2000 in real life....and then you'll be able to shot take in 1/2nl

    Either way it's an uphill battle..I wish you luck!

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  5. I don't know who you are as your screen name more numbers then they have the value of pi lol but you sir, I assume a sir, have put forth some awesome ideas. It's actually funny because I did start grinding $2NL as they do offer that on wsop.com and in the first 998 hands I'm showing a profit in excess of $28 which I still can't even fathom how I accomplished that as I would not think winning 1400 big blinds in less than a thousand hands was even possible.

    Since I put the $100 on wsop.com I am utilizing the bankroll for both the $2NL cash games and $1 and $2 tournaments staying away from the $3 rebuys. Taking a shot at the higher cash games when 30 buyins fir the next level is reached is an excellent idea with the five butin stop loss and as soon as the online bankroll hits $300 I will be making a try at $10NL.

    As far as the $200 a month that I can put towards the bankrol there lies the dilemma. I love your idea of once a week playing a $50 tournament or if I have a little over $300 to add I could play four $65s. If I were to save that money it would really start to add up in a very short amount of time yet at the same time if I play the $125 Friday night tournament at the Orleans twice a month just one deep run there in one shot could give me what I need for that $1/$2 live game. It is definitely a dilemma, but quite frankly as a poker player I like the thought of playing the tournament once a week or even twice a month.

    The only thing I disagree with you on is the short stacking the $1/$2 live No Limit cash game when the time comes. I guess the real question would be how many buyins does a winning player require to get through with no limit cash game swings. There is no way I would want to be playing a $1/$2 game or$1/$3 game with less than the maximum allowed. The last thing in the world I want to do is hit a monster and potentially be all in with only $100. That just seems like negative EV to me.

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  6. I haven't played the limit games at the Orleans in awhile but when I did I found that there was a lot of folks who lived in Las Vegas who stopped by to play a short sessions after work, not as many tourists as on the strip. Doesn't necessarily mean the games aren't soft though. I continue to like to play limit mid strip (flamingo, ballys, etc.) In the early evenings to around 2 a.m. Mostly tourists. Many folks filling in time while their traveling companion is doing something else. No one is grinding 2-4. I swear I have been on 1-2 nl tables at the Venetian where I was the only non-local, non grinder. That is not a fun or profitable game for me.

    Just started reading your blog. I wish you all the best in your grind.

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