Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Tomorrow Starts A New Day 1

You may or may not have noticed that the area on the right hand side of a blog where I was tracking hands played, profits or in my case losses, and ROI which I never really had a chance to calculate has been reset to zero.  That's because tomorrow starts a new day 1 and the reason for this is as I was going through another session of hideousness I had recall that time when I was on another site, one I would never ever frequent again, and I was playing some cash games one time for a couple of weeks I believe it was and I was tracking my progress back then, but of course I wasn't playing then for the reason I am now, but I digress, it started out with a couple of tables then when I was comfortable kicked it up to 4 tables and after a week or two of this I was looking at my statistics and realized how incredibly much my earn rate had dropped when I made the step up to the additional tables.  This memory struck me today as I was 4 tabling and I decided to cut it down to two tables.
I know I can't equate the past situation with my situation now, and I in no way expected anything to come from it, but if it even toned down the fluctuations and variance I would be okay with it for today.  This was just a very temporary change just to try to calm things down a bit.   My online account was at $100 even which made me exactly break even from what I started with which I was not too happy about, actually at end of a lot to become the bonus I cleared, but better than it could have been.  So I played on two tables for a little while and was absolutely astonished by what happened almost from the start.  

The very first thing was obviously with only playing two tables I was able to increase the size of the screen so that it went completely from the top of my screen pretty much the bottom and also widened it.  The two tables overlap but they are so much bigger and the cards are so easy to see.  My eyesight is not the best and as a matter of fact technically speaking I've failed my last drivers license eye test or at least my left eye did so being able to see the cards so clearly was the very first thing I noticed.
The second thing I noticed was I was so easily able to follow the action that was going on at the table when I wasn't an active participant in the hand and how I was able to do this with both tables almost at the same time even though they overlap.  I immediately realized that I was going to be able to take a lot more notes on my opponents especially the regulars and it was the overall ability to observe almost every detail of what was going on even after I folded my cards that really astonished me.  I wouldn't have thought it would be such a huge differential between playing two tables are playing four, but I immediately recognized that there was.  Since WSOP Nevada does not allow third party tracking software of any kind observation and note taking have got to be an absolute key to success.  
The final thing was the fluctuation and variance.  I noticed an almost immediate difference, but I really can't take too much from it since the 2 tabling session was extremely short, but the fact of the matter was it was immediately noticeable.  I also actually turned a profit of $11.15 which was also immediately noticeable.  Again with the amount of hands played I can take nothing from it, but even if the improvement in seeing the cards and the ability to observe and take notes on opponents were the only two positive aspects of it, which I believe the latter will equate to steady and consistent profits of what earn rate I am unsure of at this point, but if the first two improvements that I saw where the only thing to base this on it would be more than enough for me to make the switch permanently to 2 tabling only.  It's really nice not getting timed out and being able to see what you're doing at all times. 

The session went a little over 330 hands for a profit of $11.15 giving me $111.15.  I decided to take a $1.15 and either running up to $10 or lose it playing $0.01/$0.02 PLO.  I in fact lost the $1.15 and ended the night with $110, eleven full buyins.  Even with the $10 bonus I cleared I am exactly even from the day of the deposit.  Tonight was a test, tomorrow, the official day 1 of the two tabling grind, I play a full session of 2 tabling and see what happens.  1000 hands minimum.  It made no sense to record results of 2 tabling and 4 tabling together as I really believe that would be like trying to mix oil and water together.  It's just not done successfully.  

On one of the tables I played 149 hands.  Out of that in other positions that are not the blinds also known as "other positions" I saw a flop 20 out of 112 times for 17% so I'm pretty happy with that.  I saw the flop a total of 32 times, I won 5 of 13 hands I went to showdown with and won 14 pots without going to showdown which gave me a won when saw flop or "wwsf" percentage of 59%.  On the other table I played 134 hands, in other positions I went to the flop 14 out of 100 times for 14%.  I saw the flop a total of 28 times of the 134 hands, was 5 for 8 at  showdown, and won 11 pots without going to show down, and had a wwsf percentage of 57%.   I played on a couple of other tables during that two tabling session but they were only 31 and 19 hands respectively so no sense in quoting any figures from those. 

So what's this all mean.  Well it means no more 2000 hands per day it means the minimum goal is 1000 and if I have to play beyond my 12pm-10pm planned poker work day to achieve those 1000 hands that is what I will do, but I was averaging 115 hands an hour so i should be able to accomplish the goal in under 9 hours of table time each day.   Pokerdogg stated that for 30,000 hands of $10NL he is at 15bb/100 hands and I certainly do not have the no limit cash game experience he does, but if he makes 15 per 100 even with my lack of cash game experience I believe 10 per 100 or 1/3 less than what a more exoerienced player has been able to accomplish is a reasonable expectation. 
I plan on making another $100 deposit on December 3rd.  As soon as I can get the account to $610 I withdraw $210 and grind $20NL with a 5 buyin stop loss and then use that $210 plus a few extra dollars from my personal money for a couple of Friday night $125 deep stack tournaments at the Orleans and the online grind at that point is with pure poker earnings.  I don't expect any of my readers for one second to believe I will accomplish this because up to this point I have done nothing to show I can accomplish this, but my tenacity is intense and I'm the type of person that will continue trying and trying until all options have been utilized.  Surrender is not an option.  I know I have the skill to do this, I got the moves and I got the touch, now it's time to prove it to not just my readers, but to myself as well.  

If the 10bb/100 is something I can accomplish then I need 40,000 hands to reach $610.  That's 40 days of playing 1000 hands a day.  By my estimates with probable days off from poker because of holidays or hanging with friends I estimate completion of those first 40,000 hands sometime in January. 

That's a wrap for tonight.  This 2 tabling has got to work because as far as online goes I see no further options for me.  If this fails it's back to electronic tables at the Plaza with a few hundred each month hoping I get on a heater and that is something I don't even want to think about.  I have to make this work.  Take care everyone and as always, I'll see you at the tables. 

7 comments:

  1. Your poker blog is pretty interesting. I like the frankness of it.

    Playing two tables is a good place to start, however if you can manage to see the action on four, four tabling the 2NL is likely more profitable than 2table 10NL. It requires an adjusted play style that could hypothetically be exploited easily — except only a few people ever do, and I just adjust when they’re in the hand. I tried playing 6 tables during the double APP hours and the cards are a bit small on my MacBook and reading the chatter is basically impossible. I like to know what people are saying because it reveals a lot of leaks.

    I like to know when someone is calling another playing names or cussing them out for a suckout, since good players never really do this... which makes sense. Why would you want to insult dead money? To chase it away? As soon as I was confident that I could absolutely crush the games, I stopped being at all upset that I lost a suckout or coin flip. Sure, it kinda sucks, by definition; being on the bad end of variance, but it’s baked into the game and if I can’t manage (emotionally) these things, there’s no reason to play.

    Confidence is a big thing. If you feel more confident with two tables, you will play better. Personally I’ll just log off if there’s only two tables with 6-9 players and maybe another table with 3-5. I feel a bit... bored, maybe. It just feels slow. I’d rather play Hearthstone or drive 10-15 minutes to play live.

    From your stated stats, it seems like you’re maybe playing too tight. It’s hard to tell from so few hands because maybe you’ve just been getting the bottom half of hands, but you could probably open, call and 3bet more hands. This will increase variance, naturally. A lot of medium strength hands will flop garbage so they get tossed post flop, but occasionally you end up with nut draws and stack people. It’s probably harder mentally to open weaker hands when playing with a short bankroll, but it’s really the only way to see decent profit. My VPIP is about 35-40% depending on the table dynamics; when I’m card dead it’s about 20-25%.

    I think I may have to start writing more about poker at saysbrad.com — your blog here kind of inspired that thought.

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    1. I think Flushdraw's VPIP of 17-20% is just fine for 10nl. At 10nl, 35-40% is what your average opponent plays. You mostly have to have a strong hand at showdown to win. At higher stakes, you can represent your hands, and outplay your opponents more, and you get paid off more with big hands when you play a loose aggressive style, but at microstakes, it just doesn't matter.

      Anther thing about playing 4 tables of 2NL being more profitable than 2 tables of 10NL. I am not sure how this is possible, unless 2NL is really that much easier than 10NL. You have to have 2.5 times higher winrate at 2NL just to make them equivalent. I think that would be very difficult to achieve playing on a laptop with no software assist.

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    2. It's what I do routinely. People play ridiculously bad at 2NL. On WSOP, there aren't that many hands that go to showdown; few enough that I can overbet and represent nutted hands, and a call represents that they likely have close to what I'm trying to represent. They might as well play face up. A three bet basically always means a high pocket pair or AK meaning I can make very easy folds preflop. People merge the values of middle pair and bottom pair and almost never float or bluff at 2NL. For the past 10k hands I've averaged 1BB/hand for just over $200 profit, and I haven't been on some super heater. It's been slightly better than expected averages of starting cards. About a third is from button steals and barreling with air. About 1/3 is from all-ins and the rest is people calling against my value hands.

      I don't have any assists but I take notes and have a very, very good memory for hand histories and people's play styles. I post a lot of the insane stuff at Instagram. @bradtastic

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    3. 100bb/100? That is pretty amazing, even at the 2nl level. I am sure you are a very good player, but come one, you have got to be running hot as well. Let's check back at the 100k hands mark and see where the winrate is at.

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    4. I will def let y'all know. Late at night there are players that just shove all-in full stack 100BB with practically any two semi-decent cards. Over 80k hands on WSOP, I'm at about 70BB/100 at 2NL. But that was before making big adjustments to my 2NL game that wouldn't work live or at any higher level. I was playing mostly 10-20NL before but my net connection has been fritzy and I hate disconnecting with more than a few dollars in the pot. After a few of those, I just play real money live, 1-2 and 3-5.

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  2. Also, <a href="http://saysbrad.com/journal/2015/11/18/why-anti-gambling-laws-are-stupid.html”>I just posted an article you may find interesting about gambling laws.</a>

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  3. Flushdraw, reducing to 2 tables is a good idea. It take getting use to playing multiple tables, and without HUD on a small screen it is that much more challenging. You can always go to 3 (and then 4) in the future. Not sure how big the player pool is on WSOP.COM, but if it is like the local site I play on in BC, Canada, you will soon have good notes and know most of the players. Once you know the regulars well, it will be easier to add more table(s), and less need to make notes.

    GL

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