Monday, December 7, 2015

A Concern Regarding Earnings

I have played 4500 hands in 3 days time and have earned $35.76 in profit for an earn rate currently going into today's action of 7.9bb/100.  I should be extraordinarily happy about that, but I have major concerns overall.  If it were not for that single hand with four of us all-in, if we throw that one hand out in which I had a $60 profit. If we take that away in 4500 hands I am down $25 and for the life of me I can't figure out why. 

I have combed over the hands that have been dealt to me and while they do not keep them on the hard drive they do list them on the software itself and what I can do is it shows me at a quick glance what I personally bet in the hand and if there was a return from me so the hands where I had that at least three or four dollars bet and there was not a return was an obvious loss and I have been checking those hands and with the exception of the four hands that I've posted in my opinion I have not misplayed any of the 4500. 

I suppose it's possible I've been running a bit cold, it's also possible I do not double barrel my continuation bets enough.  It's possible that i should take the Skansky starting hand recommendations and utilize them  even more than I have so far.  it's possible i need make the C-bets larger and instead of three quarter pot size I should be doing for pot size on the flip and instead of half pot size on the turn I should be doing three quarters.  Yeah a lot of possibles and it was up to me to figure out just what it was.  Since this is still all a learning experience, since it's still all trial and error, I had to trial and error some more going into day day 4. 

Going into today the first thing I decided to do was to tweak my starting hands range.  Switched a couple of things around and opened it up even more just slightly.  The second thing I did was I decided to go pot size instead of three quarters pot size on my continuation bets and to double barrel more under the right circumstances.  Today was just insane.  I know I was getting a good run of cards, I had quads once where my opponent with top pair and a queen kicker to go along with the pair on the board decides to go all in for $14 after I check raised him a min raise on the turn and for the first time in a long time I also stacked off a shorter stack when I hit a royal flush.  Haven't seen one of those in I can't remember how long, but I wish I could tell whether or not the adjustments I made had anything to do with it as well.  At one point I was up $70, seven full buy-ins.  Ended up losing half of it in the space of four hands when variance decided to turn around and bite me in the ass where I lost 2 buyins in a single hand when my QQ ran up against KK, but in the end I still ended up with a $32 profit in a little over 1,200 hands.  I decided to call it an early night when I took those bad hits to make sure I booked a profit for tonight and I know that's probably an incorrect thing to do, but I was feeling a little tired anyway and quite frankly there were a couple of hands after that 2 buyin loss to KK where I questioned if I wasn't getting just a little bit tilty so I decided calling it a night and booking the $32 profit was the best course of action.

I started late today at 2 p.m.  I've come to the realization that 2000 hands a day is not feasible, but 1500 hands on days that I actually do play from 12 noon to 10 p.m. is feasible.  Less volume than I first anticipated but since I averaged 1500 hands a day for the first 3 days that seems to be what I'm probably going to run at.  Actually when I put in full 10 hour days I will surpass 1500 hands, but that's the daily goal.  Right now I am totally surpassing the 5bb/100 earn rate goal, but that huge hand where I profited $60 in a single hand completely skews those results.  The $32 earned today in 1200 hands surpasses it as well, but I'm not going to be convinced about anything until I have at least 50,000 hands played.  Right now the only thing I'm focusing on is getting the bankroll up to get to $20NL.  That's my focus, one step at a time. 

Tomorrow I should get  in a full 10  hour shift from 12 p.m. to 10 p.m. however Tuesday I have a first appointment with a new primary care physician here in Las Vegas so that will be a short session.  My doctors appointment is at 1:15 in the afternoon and god knows what time I'll get back but even on Tuesday and I should be able to get in at least 5 hours.   I will also definitely be clearing another bonus of $10 tomorrow as I only have seven points to go for the next installment.
You can imagine there weren't too many trouble hands in today's  session, but I did have a couple that I would like input on.




Villain 3 to my right had raised preflop 3.5x.  Villain on my right called as did I.  The flop C-bet was nothing outrageous.  He bet the turn, maybe 2/3rds nothing out of the ordinary, then the river they ram and jam.  WTF!!!

Ok now I got a club, a definite blocker to either one of them flopping a flush.  The odds that either of them flopped a flush are 118-1.  But would either one of them be jammin this river with anything less than the flopped flush??  $20 in that pot and I'm getting nearly 3-1 or is 3-1 inconsequential here because of the obvious representation.  







Ughhh what's your move.  Did he flop a set and I'm behind??  Did he flop 2pair???  Did he flop a flush??  If I call and I'm wrong it's 2 full buyins gone in one shot or should the amount of money not be part of any consideration?


No questions on these next 3,just sharing.




12th hand into the session.  Not the best start in the world,but of course it got much better after the first few hundred hands.






 It warms the heart to see your opponent shove all-in here lol.








We were all-in on the turn.



I am extraordinarily happy to say that Misty has found herself a  boyfriend.  Now that she has someone new to focus on it should prevent me from having to hear about the fact that I didn't give her the time she needed 3 and a half months ago when I called things off.  I truly want her to find happiness however I will say that I've seen a new side of her that's not particularly appealing.  I won't go into details, but suffice it to say some people start to show a different aspect of themselves when they get involved in a relationship.  Since her and I straightened things out from the huge argument I rescinded my 60 day notice, but to be totally honest I would like to move out of here on or about March 3rd.  However, I promised her out of friendship, that I wouldn't leave until she got through her medical stuff.  

This is not something that she wants because of the financial aspect because as far as that's concerned it looks like my share of things in January should be a 3-way split as Ray has procured employment so I'm keeping my fingers crossed everything works out with that and then in February it should be a four way split because in January Cathy starts to work full time.  She will have a couple of weeks of orientation in December but not enough to put in any share in January and that's fine by me.  A 3-way split is only going to cost me about $300 to $320 so I'm good with that.
  
As for Misty's different attitude, the funny part about that is her and the boyfriend have only been whatever they are for 3 days and I've already noticed the difference in her.  She will notice, most likely in very short order that I barely speak to her and that's the way I'm going to keep it until her attitude changes.  I much prefer to keep to myself when everybody's home anyway and just do my thing and my thing of course is grinding poker.   She calls me her best friend so often, but in the last few days she hardly talks to me and has become extraordinarily distant.  If that's the way she wants it that's fine with me because the next time she needs a favor I might just look at her and say why don't you ask your boyfriend to do it.  When someone, especially a friend, becomes distant with me or changes their attitude in an obvious way I tend to shut down and will hardly speak to that person. I'm reactionary and I react to what I see, hear  and experience.  I guess I'm still not totally trusting of her since our big argument.  I'm a Scorpio and when you destroy the trust of a Scorpio it's very difficult to get it back.  I'm not into astrology by any means, but I know I have a lot of scorpion traits.  It could also be completely unintentional on her part and simply be a case that she's just excited about the new relationship and she doesn't realize how she's acting towards me specifically and it makes me wonder if she's disappointed that I'm not jealous in any way about her new relationship.  As far as I'm concerned this is the best thing that could happen to her and me at the same time if you know what I mean lol.  Now maybe she'll stop making her comments where she has me hooked up with every woman in Las Vegas and every single woman I talk to online and offline.   There's no way in the world I would tell her at this point who I'm seeing or who I'm involved with or how many.  Sometimes I don't know if she does it as a joke or not, but I do know it gets tiring after awhile.  I will say this. in more than one way knowing what I know and  seeing what I've seen there's many aspects about her that I would not have thought possible and sadly she has lost some of the respect I once had for her.  

That's a wrap for tonight.  Bankroll is just over $238 and I'm so close to  the next $10 bonus you probably could say I'm just under $250 which is nearly 25 full buyins and is starting to enter a little more of a comfort zone in that area.  I'll be totally comfortable with 50 buttons.  I'll be back at it tomorrow and I will continue playing with the adjustments that I made today and hopefully we'll see if those adjustments have a direct result on my results, but I know it may take many many sessions to know whether they truly do or not. Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

2 comments:

  1. Hey! I have been a lurker on your blog, and I enjoy the content. Thanks for taking the time to write it. Poker is a passion of mine, a hobby for me. I am interested in your progress as I have a similar BR and play the same stakes (I am in EU so on Stars.) The AA hand you posted is interesting. The advice I give is of course not to worry about the money, but when you factor in the psychological effects of such a big swing (if you lose the hand), and also the current status of your BR (below 25 BI for the level, and still in the beginning stages of growth towards the 40 or 50 we want it to be at) then it might be best to take a lower variance route and pass in spots like these.

    Against flopped 2 pair you have 51%, against a flopped set you have 35%, and against flopped flush you have about 30%. If you are an optimist and your opponent holds KdK or QdQ, then you are over 90%.
    All that said, fold there. Results to that hand?


    The first hand...fold. What do you possibly beat? Were these players going crazy and playing loose? If so, then maybe an arguement for a call. But at these stakes, if the first guy shoving the river doesn't have it, then the guy calling most definitely does I would say, but in my life I have been called a donk and a nit, so I am not authority by any means.

    Good luck at the tables.

    Andrew

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  2. soon she might move her boyfriend in, then the house will definitely be crowded. of course, she will have u pay his share of the rent. this is why i dont deal with living with others unless its one person i trust fully. id never want to live at any womens place unless she was in love with me and only me. would never ever be dating more than one person either. this is why i dont fit in, and feel the world nowdays is evil and immoral and think most people are such awful people how can i listen to anything they say? sex isnt supposedly to be with more than 1, and u are supposed to love them, so its wrong to not immediately be in love with any new potential girlfriend. its why i couldnt handle claudia going back to NY and snapped and destroyed my roll.

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