Saturday, December 12, 2015

Bankroll Not Enough

After a mediocre start I ended up losing about 15 buyins in two days.  Something is seriously wrong with that picture and I am not going to continue along with this facade any longer.  Tonight every single time I had a big hand someone had a bigger hand.  If I flopped 2 pair they flopped a set, if I flopped top two pair they flopped a straight, if I flopped a set I got no action if I got action they got runner runner to beat me almost every single time. The big pairs, AA, KK, QQ.  If I got action on them the KK was up against AA or the big pair was up against a lower pair who naturally flopped a set.  Every single buyin I lost, I went in with the best hand and got outdrawn.  I did a little checking from other online cash game players and 25 buyin downswings for multitablers are not uncommon.  So the last couple of days, aggrivating as it has been, is not unusual, but if that's the case I want nothing to do with online cash games.  

Rob not too long ago had one of the worst cash game trips he's ever had by his own account and the Trooper before his break went through some serious beats losing a lot of money and these guys are live players playing one table.  Then I realized you get twice as many hands online as you do live therefore one online table is equal to 2 live tables.  Since I play 4 tables I am playing the equivalent of 8 tables live.  Therefore if a person loses 16 buyins in a downswing to equate this to a live play it would be equivalent to losing 2 buyins live which is nothing hardly.  If the standard bankroll for live play is 40 buyins then the standard bankroll for online play has got to be 8 times that amount.   The funny thing is when I was doing some research online about online bankroll management I actually came across somebody that recommended 100 to 300 buyins for online cash games.  When I read that, and I don't remember what site it was, I thought to myself this person has to be absolutely insane.   Guess what, he's not.  He's absolutely on target and in fact he stated that for his online bankroll he keeps 300 buyins.  What I thought was insanity previously I now realize is actually necessity.  I saw many recommendations for a bare minimum of 100 buyins for a multitabler.   If 100 is the bare minimum for multitablers and 300 is extremely conservative then even if we go right in the middle, 200 buyins, for $10NL that would be a bankroll of $2,000.  I absolutely guarantee you I am not grinding $10NL online if I got $2000 in my pocket it is so not going to happen.

So, what is going to happen.  I have no idea what to do next.  I have $180 after this miniature disaster, but hey it's still more than $160 I had when I made the $108 deposit on the 3rd so I'm not sweatin it too much.  I have 3 options.  One option is to play the tournaments on WSOP, but with $180 I will only be able to play the $3 rebuys if I simply buyin for the $3, do not rebuy, and do not addon.  I know it sounds crazy and yes a good player starting with an $8,000 in chips instead of $4,000 has its advantages, but good solid play at the tables I believe can overcome any disadvantage.  If I cjoose this option, I fully intend on playing those $3 rebuys and letting my opponents up the prize pool and this is what my schedule should look like should I go this route. 

9 a.m. $3 deep Stack Rebuy
11 a.m. $2 Rebuy
12 p.m. $3 Deepstack Rebuy
1:30 p.m. $2 MTT
4 p.m. $3 Deepstack Rebuy
6 p.m. $2 MTT
7:30 p.m. $3 Deepstack Rebuy

The second option is to do a total withdraw and take the money and hold on to it, then add as much as is humanly possible from my January disability payment, put it all together, and start playing $1/$1 at the Linq.  Here is the huge problem though.  If I am not successful in my No Limit cash game try at the Linq what the hell do I do during the day, no poker to play, just hanging out in this house. I will go insane. 

The third option is to cut the tables to just 2 tables and return to grinding, but the problem is playing these low limit tables is ridiculous.  Pot size bets, 3/4 pot bets nothing matters they call, call, call.  That was the primary reason I kept getting outdrawn.  Its too easy to click a button, the money is not real to these players.  In a lot of ways its worse in the tournaments so I'm at a loss as to what direction to go.  This sucks.

Its almost 5am.  I'm gonna sleep and hopefully come up with a fresh idea.  Good night all and I'm not sure if I'll see you at the tables or not.

6 comments:

  1. Sorry to hear about your downswing. It sucks, but it is part of the game. I am typing on my phone right now, so just a few quick points that I will elaborate on later today.

    1) your math is way off on BR requirement re: online vs live play. It makes no difference just because you play the same number of hands in 1/8 the time

    2) poker has a long feedback loop. You are making changes way faster than the feedback allows

    3) I have played over 2 millions hand online, I have never come close to a 100 buyins downswing. I think 300 buyins is ridiculously conservative, assuming one has a decent winrate

    4) you decided to open up your range and increase the aggression level. A direct consequence would be variance

    5) I have brought this up before, you need to work on your mental game. Elements of Poker is a good place to start. Spend the next few days to study and regroup, then get back to it

    6) 12 or even 10 hours are really long days. You have to work up to it. Stick with shorter days and take more breaks

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  2. Probably a bad idea to play in a rebuy tournament if you don't plan to rebuy or addon. You are going to cash less often an get you even more frustrated. Why are you fixated on rebuy tourneys, aren't there freeze out tourneys on WSOP?

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  3. to play the $3 rebuys if I simply buyin for the $3, do not rebuy, and do not addon.

    How many chips do you get for the add-on?

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  4. Just my honest thoughts here. I don't mean to offend, but I'm just telling it like I see it. Keep in mind that I am certainly no expert in poker, but I consider myself a process person -- someone who continually looks at the way a system is running and improves it or designs an entirely new system.

    We have played together (remember when we both went deep in that huge Cardschat tournament around a year ago?) and I railed you two or three times when you were successful in Bovada tournaments. I have seen you be successful.

    I think your current strategy makes no sense at all. This is 2015, not 2005. There are not thousands of fishy poker dudes learning the game each day and hopping online. Who is playing the cash games you are playing? Likely grinders trying to do the same thing as you. Why would you expect to win from them? You want to be playing inexperienced players, drunk players, people who don't give a crap about dropping money, ... I just don't think you see people like that playing micro limits online.

    You are hoping to now win with a bankroll of $180? $180 is not a bankroll. Truthfully, even for $1/2 NL hacks like me, it is not even a buy-in. Just with variance and rake your margin for error is so tight.

    As I previously suggested, you might just have to admit that you are swimming in shark infested waters and you are, maybe at best, a baby shark getting swallowed whole. Yet, you are living in the biggest aquarium in the world and are not taking advantage of all the fish there.

    I do not know or remember if there are work limitations you have to abide by to keep your disability money. If not, you need to take all those hours you are grinding poker and instead get some job -- any job -- with an hourly wage. Then squirrel away every cent you can until your bankroll is big enough to play the fishy $1/2 dollar games that are in town.

    The essence of successful poker is to prey on the weak and put yourself in the best situations to win. Even guys like TBC have been successful by playing smart, tight, fundamental poker and taking money from those who are weaker, drunk or who don't really care. You are in the perfect poker playground. Get yourself a real bankroll and take advantage of it.

    Best of luck in whichever way you go from here.

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    Replies
    1. Lightning, this is good basic advice except for the online grinding part. The game at the 10nl is pretty fishy still, at least at the sites I've been playing on. This is not a bad way to grind up a bankroll, and is good training for when he plays for bigger money live. Much better trying to fix the problems while playing 5/10 cents than $1/2.

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    2. Flushdraw, I'm back on my computer, hopefully I will make more sense when not forced to be terse.

      1) There are only three factors that determines bankroll requirement: winrate, standard deviation, and risk of ruin tolerance. When you play online and multitable, you play a lot more hands in a given time period than live, but that is not the reason (or can be used as a multiplier) for your BR requirement. Your BR requirement is higher online because your winrate is going to be much lower than @ live game, and the more tables you play, the lower it gets in general.

      2) you already know it takes 50,000 hands or more to get an idea of one's winrate, yet you have been making big fundamental changes every few thousand hands. You are never going to find out if something is working if you don't give it enough time.

      3) I really think 300 buyins is overkill. Even 100 buyins is too conservation for 10nl in your situation, because you can replenish your bankroll every month. Yes, it is quite possible to be down 25 buyins, may be 50 buyins even, but it doesn't matter because you can start over in a few days/weeks if you go bust. Having said that, losing 12 buyins in one day is quite a lot, you should review your session and see where the leaks are

      4) I meant to say increase variance. If you want to lower variance, go back to what you were doing before. Double and triple barrelling, great when it works, but costly when it doesn't

      5) They don't call it a grind for no reason. It can be very challenging when things don't go smoothly at the tables. You will be faced with the same things whether you play online, live, tourneys, VBJ, it doesn't matter. Better to work on your mental game while playing micro stakes than when you play 1/2 or higher. There are a number of good books out there including the one I mentioned

      6) I don't know how long you play between breaks, but I know it is really easy to just keep playing when you are chasing loses. Trust me I know, you and I are not the first ones to play through the night trying to win it all back. That is part of the mental game that I continually work on, refer to point 5). The main point is, multitable takes a lot of mental focus, and your brain, like any muscles, need to rest from time to time


      Hope this all makes some sense to you. I would be happy to recommend other reading materials I have found useful


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