Tuesday, January 5, 2016

Downswing

I am currently experiencing a downswing.  Dating back to December 29th including yesterday's play in which I took a $34 loss in just under 2700 hands played during a 13 hour online grind, and was down as large as 6.5 buyins at one point, but patience on one particular table where I knew eventually me ans a specific player wouls tangle and based on the numerous notes that I have on him I knew he personally would help me recoup some of it and it finally did happen.  I saw this player lose over 5 buyins he had on table in the space of 10 minutes in which over two of those went to me helped  recoup some of the losses from yesterday.

Overall the downswing is 7 days, covers 7945 hands, and am down 7.4 buyins in the process.  You name it, it's happening.  My AA vs AK once unsuited once not, all in preflop, & I lose both times.  Those two hands alone cost in excess of $28.   Big draws are not hitting and I don't mean just having a nut flush draw and missing, I mean huge draws where you have the flush draw and the openender to go with it or the flush draw with a gutshot and two overcards to the board and missing you every single time and these situations are costing me a good deal of money.  

The downswing has brought my earn rate down to just over 10bb/100 and I know it will rise once again once I get through this. I've been starting my sessions later and ending them later taking advantage of some very loose night time tables and more aggro donks in the process which can provide good profits but also increases the variance, but since I keep such a high bankroll as for the amount of buyins at the present time, it really doesn't concern me much at all.  Yesterday's session was the longest one I've had so far and the reason I'm playing so long is not because I'm chasing losses and it wasn't because I was trying to recoup something, but the fact of the matter is during a downswing I know that I have to play through it.  If a downswing is going to go 10,000 hands and you play a thousand hands a day it's going to take 10 days to get through it.  However, if you can play 2500 a day you can get through that same diwnswing in just 4 days.  I just want to get through this foolishness as soon as possible.  I know that there are times where I want to step back because things are going bad, but I realize I must not pull back, I still have to keep playing my game, keep the aggression up, and keep doing what I need to do.  I cannot be result oriented.

Well that's all for now.  Going to play from 5 p.m. till 3 a.m. and hopefully the few buyins that I picked up right at the end of yesterday's session is a sign that I'm coming out of this.  So take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

7 comments:

  1. I've been doing a little grinding myself lately. I am finding myself questioning one of the fundamental poker sayings "Getting it all in with the best hand". If you know that it is likely that your opponent will call your all in (given prior observations) does it make more sense to get to the flop without shoving and re-evaluate from there? Given that AA wins about 33% of the time and loses the rest if I know I am getting called and will lose all or most of my stack if I get beat doesn't it make some sense not to go all in until I am more sure that it's going to be one of those times in the 33%? If we both have $10 buyins over the course of 100 hands I would win $330 but lose $670 for a net loss of $340. Am I nuts?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Personally I will always play my whole stack with AA pre flop if I can. I don’t like getting tricky with AA because I’d rather play an all-in pot heads up than a smaller pot with multiple callers. The only time I may choose to be careful with AA is if there are more than two donks at my table who will call all-in flop or turn bets. If I can utilize post flop advantages against them, I’m fine with making smaller raises pre flop, especially if they fold out their utter crap to preflop 3bets but play junk the rest of the time and call with any pair.

      Heads up AA does very well, or with two callers. Much better than 33%.

      Delete
  2. Ah I see the problem with my math. AA v KK(best possible opposing hand) AA will win 81% of the time. So in theorey I should win $810 bucks, lose 190 for a net win of $620. But I still feel like I would be better off for controlling my bankroll if I don't abdicate control so early in the hand.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Keep your head up man. It will get better

    ReplyDelete
  4. I’ve been playing very swingy poker, but I haven’t had the chance to play much these past few weeks. In that time, I hit a RF with AT spades, and a straight flush three times, twice with both hole cards. But I’d lost buyins because I wasn’t hitting sets, and when I did, I couldn’t get action. Also several times I had AK run down by AJ, QQ killed by Kx and KK crushed by stuff like A6o. I just make notes when people play stuff like 75o OOP in re-raised pots. I know the math will play out in my favor overall. It’s still a bit frustrating.

    Recently though I’ve been super busy with work and have been having a lot of fun with Hearthstone, so I haven’t logged on much. I’ll probably only get a $10 bonus this month on WSOP.

    Good luck FD and Happy New Year.

    ReplyDelete
  5. AgSweep said in part:

    "AA will win 81% of the time. So in theory I should win $810 bucks, lose 190 for a net win of $620. But I still feel like I would be better off for controlling my bankroll if I don't abdicate control so early in the hand."

    To what end Ag?? When we're dealing with AA are you advocating not getting it all-in until the flop?? A well laid trap could increase the profits from AA perhaps, but the situations in certain coordinated flops could and would bring about more difficult decisions with that top overpair.

    One thing I do that I picked up as a recommendation from one of the "Splitsuit" videos on YouTube which I utilize as part of my poker studies is the limp/3bet preflop when I am in early position with AA and I will also do it with KK. It works wonders provided you have some aggros to your left that you're fairly certain will come in for a raise in position. So many times you pop it to 3 bets in this manner and they will shove over the top from either stubbornness or the belief that I'm pulling a preflop bluff.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don’t get that tricky with AA or KK. Occasionally when you do this it will just limp around at small stakes, and that’s bad. More often, from UTG or +1 you will have the opportunity to 3bet but end up with too many callers, especially if the guy behind you makes the call, giving better odds to each successive caller. Sometimes you end up with the dream when there’s a squeeze because original raiser 4bets and you five bet.

      I’d rather just always come in with a raise from EP, because I don’t want to limp lesser/mediocre hands there to disguise nutted hands, or have to 3bet bluff and play OOP with a crushed hand when called.

      Delete