Wednesday, February 24, 2016

Let's Look At The Numbers

Readers and friends alike often wonder why I insist on pushing so many hours a day even when my body is sending me clear messages it doesn't like it.  Why I insist on playing 9 to 12 hours a day when my body only wants me to play five or six and I need the caffeine pills to get me through.  I have been given suggestions of taking a nap during the middle of the session to playing only 5 or 6 hours a day and these suggestions are valid no doubt about it, but for me it won't work and the inability to take these suggestions and implement them which I easily could all has to do with time frame involved. 

I want this goal achieved as fast as humanly possible without dying in the process.  Do I believe for one second that grinding poker caused my recent issues of course not.  I've had blood clot problems since I was 28 years old I just hadn't had any go to the lung in a good 18 years and I was a poker player for 7 or 8 of those years so that's not what caused the problems.  The caffeine pills raise the blood pressure which there is an inherent risk in that but one that I'm willing to accept in order to get the volume in.  When it comes right down to it let's look at the numbers.

The total bankroll is over $500 so we will use $500 as a base meaning I still have $9,500 to go to reach my $10,000 goal.  My earn rate at the $10 tables is 9bb/100 and if, and this is a big if, but if we can assume that at the $50 tables I can expect an earn rate of 4bb/100 based on 1500 hands a day which takes me a good 7 or 8 hours to complete at the bare minimum that would be an average daily profit of $30 per day at those tables and thus with $9,500 left to go would take approx 318 days to complete my task.  If I cut back on the volume has been suggested and only played half that much you are looking at 636 days to complete the task and that does not even come close to acceptable to me.  I got news for you 318 days is not acceptable to me that's why I push as many hands in a day as I can.  

I probably average 1500 but there are days that I get 1800 in.  I want 2000 unfortunately that would take at least in my mind a 12 hour session and even with the caffeine pills I don't think I can do that much but supposing I could, supposing I find a way to make 2000 hands a day my daily routine it would still take, based on a 4bb/100 earn rate, 237 more days to complete this.   That is 237 playing days and remember I am going to have days that I take off, I'm going to have days and I'm hanging out with my friends, days where doctors appointments will interfere in the grind so you're not talking 237 days you're talking even longer because its 237 days that I actually play poker.  Even 237 days is not completely acceptable to me and therefore that is why I am trying to increase this bankroll by adding in a couple of live tournaments each month to the mix, saving up and playing in Colossus ll, and adding tournament play to the daily schedule so that I can eventually be playing the $20 deep stack each and everyday I play.  In all honesty I want this to happen within the next 6 months.  Within the next 6 months I want that $10,000 available to me so that I can start grinding the $1/$2 tables or the $1/$1 tables over at the Linq.  That means I want to be playing full time live by September 1st.  The only question is can I actually make it happen.  

Yesterday the cash games were actually a profit at the $10 tables as I ended up with earnings of just over a Full buying in 1864 hands. You know I only played less than 9 hours and still got 1864 hands in so I'm thinking that a 10 hour session, uninterrupted of course, can produced the 2000 hands a day I'm looking for.  Perhaps my sessions should simply not be based on time, but based on hands played. Play as long as it takes to get those 2000 hands.  I'm going to try that today and see what happens.

The tournament are going absolutely horrendous.  I played the $20 Deepstack yesterday but that has now been suspended until I see signs that I am coming out of this.  I got knocked out of the $20 Deepstack when I had any one of 15 outs that I could have hit on the turn and river and missed every single one of them on both streets.  Other than that I played two $2 tournament and a $1 tournament and check out the final hands that got me knocked out of each of those.  

Ughhhh can you say run bad??   I will get on the tables today at noon and fire up the cash games.  The 130pm $2 MTT will be up first for tournament play, the 6pm $2 MTT will also be played unless the 130pm shows signs of me coming out of this tournament funk then I will play the $20 Deepstack, but not until I see a sign of change.  If I am knocked out of the 130pm early there is a 315pm $1 MTT I can jump in and if I am knocked out of the 6pm tournament early there is a 715pm $1 MTT.  I am keeping the tournament costs ultra low until I see some cashes in the lower buy-ins and a few less hideous eliminations.

That's all for now.  The numbers are the main reasons why I refuse to back down from the grind.  I always want 3 cash games going at a minimum so that I can hopefully get those 2000 hands in a day starting today so with that said,let's hit it.  Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.


  1. Not planning to move up to 100NL? Just get quality hours in, and move up as quickly as you can.

  2. u are lucky to have so many who care about ur health--right there in ur city. wish i did. mine are located other cities. one is a nurse, so listen.

    and u dont need $10k. i need much more, but u need much less--why? cause u getting monthly check. u could start live with 20 buyins of $150, (little as $3000 roll)