Monday, March 21, 2016

A Comment Resonse

Pokerdogg said in part:

We can debate whether 2/4 limit is beatable or not, but it really doesn't matter because you will believe what you believe, and only you can prove it for yourself. I hope you will keep good records and see in the long run how you do, I for one would love to be proven wrong. 

I use an app called Poker Income and many months back I paid the $10 for this app so I have the full version.  I was using this app to keep track of my tournaments at the Plaza and will continue to do so to keep track of my $2/$4 games beginning with the most recent session at the Nugget.

I am confused about one thing though, you did this whole calculation about how much you need to play 2/4, 3/6, etc. Then a few paragraphs later, you already plan to take the $400 expected in April and spend it on higher buyin tournaments and also cash games.

Well let's face some reality.  Tournaments online, even the $3 deep stack rebuys, assuming a 25% ROI, is only about $125 in earnings a month and would take a fair amount of time to get up to that magic $2,000 mark I now seek.  The money from April for instance will be used for at least one or two Golden Nugget tournaments at a cost of $65 each and a $2/$4 cash session where $200 will be reserved for this.   The reason for playing these is pretty simple as I believe that these choices is going to be the best way to get that $2,000 as fast as possible.  I suppose it could be said that saving that money and adding it to the bankroll might be a more safer approach, but since I have a lot of confidence in both of my limit cash game skills and my tournament skills I believe investing that $330 is the best way to get me to my current goal as fast as possible.   Another possibility is the Friday night $125 tournament at The Orleans.  I pull a top 3 finish in that and I've got I got the two grand in one shot. 

You change directions more often than TBC changes his pants.Worse yet, you change the stats you keep (from what we can see here) almost as often.

You have to remember that the transition to cash games was an experiment.  I didn't know whether I would like it, I didn't know if it was something that I would want to do long term, I didn't know if it was something that I would want to take the chance of financial risk upon and that's why I tried that transition online because of the lower amounts such as $0.05/$0.10 blinds.  At first I enjoyed it, but I think a large part of that was due to it being something new to me and I realized after a couple of months it was just something I did not want to do.  I ended up earning over $450 in those cash games online so I have no real complaints.  For some reason at that time playing limit cash games  didn't even dawn on me so at the time it seemed like I had two choices No Limit cash or tournaments.  I erased the statistics from online when I started playing at the Plaza because as far as I was concerned I was never returning to online play again.  I never fathomed that the Plaza which had seemed to have increased the amount of Interest their tournaments we're generating recently compared to when I played there previously was going to shut down on me and force me back to online.  I was broadsided by that one and never even considered that possibility.  As I explained to that creature lucky b I wasn't considering limit cash games as a possible full time venture until I played that session at the Golden Nugget and no unlike what he may believe it didn't have anything to do with the nice profit I pulled and it had everything to do with the enjoyment, and I'll be honest the limited financial risk.  Sure no limit players may make more than me, but we each define success to our own standards. just because no limit players may make $25 an hour and maybe the best I can hope for is $16 an hour playing $4/$8 limit games if that's good enough for me then isn't that what it's really all about??

Speaking of stats, I have a hard time understanding how you can have 80% winning sessions in 2/4 limit assuming it is a normally raked game.

It's not like I was playing every day or every week, but the times that I did get to play at Chumash Casino I would play $2/$4 I had many many many winning sessions when I did so.  80% is a rough estimation.

3 comments:

  1. Good luck beating 2-4 with high rake and jackpot drop sounds tough....Orleans has the lowest rake in Vegas....watch your tokes...the dealers won't be too happy with you...only play 10 handed short game will break you

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  2. Geezer when you say short handed are you talking 6 handed or less?

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  3. I know I am repeating myself but timing and game selection are everything. My son began at UNLV in 2004 and lived in Vegas until around 2011. During that time I would go visit him around 6 times a year, including during the WSOP. I still visit Vegas a few times a year. During all those visits I only play 2/4 or 4/8 limit (and the occasional tournament). I've played at all of the strip casinos, all the downtown casinos and a few of the off strip casinos. Unfortunately because I was on vacation I didn't keep stats but I can honestly say that losing sessions were few and far between. I had a miserable 4/8 session at the Bellagio that remains in my memory and a session at the Flamingo where the Irish whiskey was flowing and I should have just lit my money on fire. The more touristy my table the better. I learned to stay away in the mornings and to avoid rooms that had 'play x hours' promotions as that attracted locals who were playing just to get their hours in. These promotions may offer some value for you but in general did not for me because much of the time I wasn't going to be around for the freeroll or whatever. My favorite room for the last couple of years has been the flamingo (mostly cause I usually stay midstrip). The most profitable times for me are the NFR and the WSOP. During WSOP I avoid the cash games at the RIO and seek out where the off duty poker dealers are playing. In the last few years that has been the Orleans but in reality the action is good in most all the poker rooms.

    While I agree that in general the rake and jackpot drops make it a difficult game to beat I do believe that some of that can be overcome with table selection. If you get in a good 2/4 game with lot's of action you only need to win a couple of big pots to double up or better.

    With the action of course comes an increase in variance. You will get run down. The things I have mentally worked on is getting over the sense of entitlement. In 2/4 action games you must have a high show down value. You are going to see the river and you are going to need a hand to win. I have worked on suspending disbelief. If I am playing a bunch of fish the whole put them on a range line of thought goes right out the window. If the dude UTG plays every hand than it is entirely possible that he has played 7,2 in EP and I must act accordingly. Just because I have AA's if the board doesn't come my way, I ain't winning.

    The other strategy that has helped me keep cool is when I am at the table with someone who plays and raises every hand, every street, I just start mentally playing the next level up, if I'm playing 2/4 I simply start mentally playing 4/8 and do the calcs accordingly.

    I totally agree with Geezer about short handed. The pots are too small to stay ahead of the rake, even if it's reduced.

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