Friday, April 29, 2016

Final Approach

After withdrawing everything off my WSOP account on April 17th I began April 18th with $0 in that account.  It was supposed to be the start of a break but that never seemed to transform as money seem to keep finding me and giving me the ability to play, but none the less beginning on April 18th, 2016 I did in fact start with $0 and as of this posting have worked that out to just over $158 ending things tonight.  

Before I fully Institute those rules that I had posted a couple of entries back I was forced to withdraw $50 in an attempt to avoid starving for the last 5 or 6 days of the month.   Beginning in May those personal rules that I posted will take effect and I will more than attempt to budget my monthly money much better so that no further withdraws need to be taken from the online account.  On May 3rd I fully intend on putting that $50 back as that is part of the $0 to $158 stretch that I am currently in.  I like the fact that my online account is nothing but earnings and no money put in me by me perse.  All the previous profits and earnings have already been spent mostly just having fun, hanging out, and playing poker live.   If you take the at least $800 earned online and add to that the over $400 earned in two specific $2/$4 limit sessions and the Linq tourney chop the fun times have cost over $1200.   I don't regret it, but i also realize that it is 60% of the $2000 I am currently striving for.  As I said in that previous post it's time to buckle down and make some serious strides to get to where I want to be and I think going from $0 to $158 is definitely a positive move in the right direction.  

I don't think there is an overwhelming need to top off the online account to the $200 I had originally intended to as I think what I have right now for what I am playing will be more than enough.  As I said previously I will be returning that $50 withdrawal as that is part of the $0 - $158 run, but I don't see a need to add any more to that on the 3rd of May.  I'm still going to be utilizing $200 as a base bankroll so I have a little more work to do and as of late in the tournaments I have been running absolutely horrendous.  My AA vs QJs all in preflop and my opponent hits a queen on the turn and a jack on the river.  It is annoyingly frustrating, but at the same time I know that is the nature of tournaments and I just have to play through it.  The same plan is still in motion.  $200 being the base bankroll and once I get to $220 I will throw in the $20 Deepstack, at $240 the $2P Midnight Madness is added, and at $260 and I add in the $20 Knockout so obviously I still have some work to do. 
$70 of this $158 was from the fixed-limit leaderboard.  As you can see from the breakdown on the right side of this blog so far my best performance has been at limit Omaha H/L.  I am also showing profits in limit Hold'em as well but the reason behind why the Omaha H/L is so much better is that was a $1/$2 game and in limit Hold'em I had a session where I won $25, but I also had a session where I lost $25 so they canceled each other out.  I would like nothing better than to be able to grind limit cash games on WSOP instead of these tournaments, but that just is not possible.  I really think the only reason there has been any limit cash games has been because of the fixed the fixed limit leaderboard promotion and even with that they're scarce at best.  Once that promotion is over the limit games will be a virtual ghost town so it's the tournament play since I absolutely want nothing to do with no limit cash games whether that be online or live.   You will notice there has been some play and profits made at the $2 and I'll tables but that was at the beginning when I was trying to earn a reasonable buy-in for a $10 PLO8 game that was going.  Those profits in the NL game we're actually in two different sessions one where I sat in with $0.40 and one where I sat in with $0.44.  

I did not bother playing the 12:15 a.m. and 1 a.m. tournaments tonight as I just felt too tired tonight and knew I would not be able to give them my full concentration. Tomorrow morning it is laundry day, a day which I absolutely abhor, but a day which must be dealt with.  Therefore I will not be playing probably until 2:15 p.m.  Hoping to turn this rough stretch around soon. 

On a personal note I have not missed a single dose of my medication since I left the hospital as the reminder app for that very purpose has been working out wonderfully.  I had my appointment with the pulmonologist and before he will allow me to no longer use the oxygen at night he wants me to do a sleep study but it's a study that will be done overnight at the apartment in my own bed.  He also has put me on a new medication and inhaler called Spiriva which needs to be taken only once a day and is supposed to help people with my type of breathing condition.
After I deposit after I return the $50 that was withdrawn according to my calculations after I set aside everything that I need for the month that should give me about $200 left over.  Part of that money will go towards a $65 tournament at the Mirage that I will play when Mr. Lightning is here.  I am looking forward to meeting him and hopefully I will do well in that tournament.  I might be able to play a cash session at $2/$4, but as far as that goes I'm just going to have to play it by ear and see what happens.

Time for me to grab some sleep as I am setting the alarm for 9:30 a.m. so I can get this laundry over and done with as fast as possible.  Got a nice little writeup on my blog as did many others in the blogging community at yourhandsucks.com  It felt nice to be recognized and included with some of the best blog writers out there.  Until next time, take care everyone, and I'll see you at the tables. 


Thursday, April 28, 2016

Let's Air This Out

Okay, I decided that I need to address what some of my readers have been commenting about lately.  I want to get it out there so that hopefully everybody that reads this blog will understand.  First of all, I do not have a death wish, but apparently I don't fear it as much as others do and maybe it's not so much not fearing it as I have this almost invincibility attitude about myself.  Yes, I know we're not invincible, but it's an attitude of mind, heart, and spirit more than anything.  I've been near death before guys and I'll probably be near death again, but at the same time I'm not going to let the threat of that dictate my actions.   

When I was 11 years old I had a fractured skull and fell into a short coma.  When I was 28 years old I had 7 blood clots in my body at the same time, fell into a coma for 10 days, during those 10 days according to the medical professionals working on me I nearly died and it was a miracle I survived and before you ask no I never saw any tunnel or white lights.  During my marriage I unknowingly had pneumonia and passed out behind the wheel with the cruise control at 65 miles an hour, ran off the highway, went airborne, and woke up on impact.  I walked away with a single cut and a bruises.   Back in February when the blood clot in the lung put me in the hospital the doctor told me at the time I was near death and he didn't think I would make it out to the sidewalk which was less than 50 yards away. Was he over embellishing it, who knows, but if we take it at face value that's the fourth time in my life I nearly died.

Now, if I just laid back and stopped living every time I nearly died what would be the point of that.  I am going to live life on my terms as I see it and if I end up dying, unfortunate as that would be, I would be with my wife finally so there's a positive aspect to everything.  It's not what I want to happen, but I refuse to roll over and stop doing what I want in this world.  Tomorrow is never promised and when my wife died suddenly even though I knew it before then it totally made me realize you have to go after each and everything you want each and every day you're here because you never know what tomorrow could bring.  Because I have not yet quit smoking does not mean I have a death wish.  I've been smoking for 30 years and if you think that just everyone can just up and quit, you're wrong.  For me it's going to take a good amount of time.  If you think I have a death wish because I got into a fight with emergency room personnel well that's crazy too.  Are you telling me you just blindly accept  whatever rule somebody may have and even if you don't like it you go along with it or would you say "no that rule is wrong and if that's going to be the condition of our interaction then I will find  another agency to interact with."  Its not like they were the only hospital in this town and I knew that there would be another hospital that was less stringent about certain things so I went to it I was admitted and I was discharged.   If I truly had a death wish I would not have let myself be admitted and I would not have stayed until the doctor said it was ok to leave.
I will be the first to admit I do not take authority very well, I never have, and I doubt highly I ever will.  I've always been the rebellious type, the one who will fight back when someone tells me you have to do this, or it has to be this way, or it can't be that way, and a lot of times in that rebelliousness I will attempt to do the complete opposite.  Is that a flaw or a positive aspect of my personality.  If you asked a hundred people you may get 50 answers one way and 50 the other and I'm not even going to attempt to answer it, but I know it is what I've always done for nearly half a century of life on this Earth and will continue to do so for quite some time to come.   Since I've left the hospital the second time I have taken my medication religiously, I've already seen a pulmonologist who is referring me to a hematologist that I will also go to see.  I will be utilizing an additional medication that needs to be taken once a day that my doctor recommended and I also agree, to an overnight sleep study that will be conducted in my own bed by the use of technology.  The bottom line is I'm doing everything I can to get through this, but I will not stop playing poker, I will not stop taking caffeine pills to get me through my poker sessions, and quite frankly the doctor did not tell me that I need to do either. I did a little Google search and found out a quote from a doctor in San Diego I believe it was that you can safely take 400 milligrams of caffeine a day.

As for my close friend that happens to be a nurse hell I drive her insane with my lackadaisical attitude.  The same could be said for my buddy Joseph (maninblack)   Half the time my brutha from another mother wants to crack me upside the head and tie me in a chair in the nearest doctor's office but they also both know that I'm going to do what I do and they get somewhat insistent when the need arises.  They are both awesome friends.  

Bottom line is you don't have to agree with my decisions but don't be saying I have some sort of death wish because I don't.   I guess in the end I simply wait until the absolute last possible second before I finally address my medical issues that arise, but the difference between me and Tony is I do address them so take that "Tonyism" bullshit and stuff it lmao.  Now no one take that last part overly personal, I was laughing when I wrote it. 


Sunday, April 24, 2016

Introspection And Hospitalization

For those of you that don't follow me on Twitter I ended up back in the hospital again with a blood clot in my right lung again.  According to the doctor it's not so much a new one as the old one which grew in size most likely due to my forgetfulness to take my medication specifically my blood thinner.  The hospitalization lasted about two and a half days.  I was at UMC, University Medical Center, over on Charleston and Shadow Lane.  It is definitely a much nicer place than the one I was in last time which was North Vista Hospital.  As a matter of fact I originally went to North Vista hospital but we had, shall we say, a personality conflict where due to their so-called rules I told them to fuck off, they were acting like assholes, and got escorted out by security.  I will never step foot in that place again, my choice not theirs, but UMC I like very much.  The staff was great with the exception of a couple of nurses on a power trip and overall it was a very positive experience except for the fact that I had to be hospitalized in the first place.

It turns out the blood clot that nearly killed me back in February takes about 6 months to completely eradicate from one's body and because of my forgetfulness with my medication that caused the increase in size of the original pulmonary embolism and explains my lack of stamina lately and also why my inhaler has not been doing squat and why the pain in my right lung has grown recently.  I downloaded an app a few days ago which gives me a reminder and will continue to give me a reminder until I take a course of action by telling it I have taken my medication or to skip if I had already taken it and I believe with this app assisting me my forgetfulness for medication will and has come to an end.  The doctor says this is a long road to recovery and because of that said forgetfulness we have pretty much started this six-month time frame again.  I need to take it as easy as much as possible and just let my body heal.  This does not mean that I will not be going out and getting out from time to time, but it does mean that I will definitely cut back on it and not just because of the hospitalization, but also some introspection that I've done within myself, but I will admit the hospitalization also aided in that introspection.

I cannot deny that in the last 6 months living in Las Vegas, I've had a lot of fun, the most fun that I've had in many years.  Granted my alcohol intake is definitely up since I moved here, but you know this place is a playground for adults and while I haven't gone overboard on it I've enjoyed myself.  I've taken the last 6 months and just really had some fun.  Ive hung out with friends, I've played tournaments at The Orleans, Golden Nugget, Linq, Plaza, and Mirage.  I've seen cash game action at The Orleans, Golden Nugget, Flamingo, and Stratosphere and every single time I spent the night out whether playing in a tournament or playing in cash game session lasting several hours, or hanging out I've had a very very enjoyable time win lose, or draw, but during this downtime is serving me well. 
It's reminding me that while Las Vegas is meant for fun it is also meant to make a living, to pay bills, and to go on with normal everyday life.  Yes, my monthly disability payment does pay my basic living expenses, but I want more than that, I want to be in a better financial situation then depending on that alone every month and with that said, I'm not going to get there by doing what I've done for the last 6 months.  It's time to settle in and buckle down and do what I need to do and I think this borderline break that I was on and this introspect that I am going through at this time has really made me realize this more so than ever before.  It's probably the best thing I could have done not just for poker, but for me and where my life is going specifically on a financial level.

During the last 6 months in my feeble attempts to build up a bankroll and I say feeble because although I've won money, up to this point, I have been spending it almost as fast as I make it in some cases, but during this time my readers have seen me flip back and forth between the approach taken
to achieve these goals and I think the flipping back and forth is to be attributed to a great deal to my own impatience which is obviously a lack of that discipline that I value so much and pride myself on.  Obviously I've slipped in that department.  Poker is about the long-term and is not about fast results and I think that's what I've been looking for too much is fast results.  Again this borderline break is providing a lot of introspect in my own attitudes and approaches.  

Over the course of these past 6 months I have found or maybe I should say confirmed certain things that I probably already knew, but it's always good to be shown it or have some sort of self confirmation.  One of those things I think is pretty obvious is that I do not like nor do I want anything to do with no limit cash games.  Whether it is playing them online or whether it is playing them live on my own or on a stake I don't like them.  I hate them.  Yes I could make money in them in the long term, but I do not like the insane swings, I do not like the fact of losing a full buyin on the turn of one card, and I would rather grind out $8 an hour in a $2/$4 limit game than make $15 an hour grinding no limit cash.  I know that many of you are probably convinced because of that statement I have lost my ever lovin mind.  I enjoy the grind of limit games, I love the fact that the tourists are so loose the are chips flyin, I love the fact that a $200 buyin, even in a losing night, can last for hours and hours as opposed to 12 seconds on a 2 out river no limit session.  As far as I'm concerned no limit to me, and this is just to me personally, should be reserved for tournaments only and cash games, for me is definitely a limit based proposition.  

My goals ate the same.  I am out to create a $2,000 bankroll so that I can start playing $2/$4 limit cash games on a daily basis.  There are so many convinced that it's not beatable because of the rake and I've talked about this here before, and there is just no changing people's minds.  Pretty much everybody I would imagine that almost all the players playing $10/$20 and $40/$80 over at Bellagio at one time or another started out at $2/$4.  Obviously the rake can be beat and I will simply prove that when the time comes, but the more important aspect is how will I get to that $2,000 and whatever I choose to do, don't step back from it.   I think my position on the beatable aspect can best be expressed by simple math and if after this, any of my readers are still convinced it is unbeatable because of the rake, it will simply be my job to prove my point at the tables. 

Everything in poker is the long run and averages so that's exactly what we will focus on in this example based on 20 hands.  If we assume that I win 40% of my flops seen, the numbers come down to this.  20 flops seen and i will win 8 of them.  If the average hand i play costs me personally $10 each and I have say 3 opponents also contributing with me which is typical at $2/$4 then here is the breakdown. 

20 flops seen costing an average of $10 that is $200 invested.  Eight of these i will win with an avg pot of $35.  $200 invested, $280 won, $40 in rake and tokes, is a grand profit of $40.  These loose games have so many chips and pot odds for the skilled player that most likely I will see those 20 flops in 4 hours or less which equates to $10 per hour or 2-3 big bets per hour won which is what I have been saying is probable and sustainable all along.  Like many aspects in poker the math rules and numbers don't lie.  

Pulmonary embolisms in the lung it's a fact that they can kill you at any time and really when you think about it anyone of us can go at anytime so this has made me realize that whatever goals we set for ourselves in life we need to achieve them as quickly as possible.  To that to that end I have decided to create 3 personal rules for myself that must not ever be broken.

1.  All bankroll money must not be spent on anything else.  If that means going without food so be it, if that means an emergency has to be put off so be it.  It simply means I need to budget my monthly disability payment better to cover anything and everything that could come up. 

2.  Under no circumstances change whatever approach is decided on.   There are no exceptions and no excuses. 

3.  Days off from the grind must be limited to important issues.  A friend in need, if I'm sick with a cold or flu, tiredness and fatigue, or being hospitalized is about the only reasons that I can think of not to be grinding.   "I just don't feel like playing today" is heretofore unacceptable.  

4.  Even with the potential of selling shares I am completely cancelling Colossus and this year's WSOP.  The $2k takes top priority and any money I would have put into that is better served putting towards earning profits that will get me to the $2k bankroll. 


I was planning on depositing $200 into my online account on May 3rd when I get paid, but the situation has arisen where I may still end up doing that, but on the other hand I might not have to.  My account was completely cleared and on April 18th I had absolutely zero dollars in that account not even a single penny so I started playing a few freerolls.  My account was credited with promotional money.  I used that promotional money to pay for some tournaments and also hopefully utilized it to create more promotional money specifically the fixed-limit leaderboard.  Now not counting the days I was in the hospital since April 18th I have played 14 tournaments, ten $1 MTTs and four $2 MTTs.  I am 5 for 14 with two wins.  Total MTT profits are $32.44 and grouping any and everything else together in Misc profits those are at $12.65 for a total bankroll of $45.09.  It's obvious to me that MTTs are going to be the way I am going to get to my $2,000 and if I can do it from pure profits starting with $0 available I am all for that.  If I don't have to make that $200 deposit I can utilize that for a session of $2/$4 at the Golden Nugget which by the way all future live play will be done without any alcoholic refreshment.  If there is even a chance that one or two drinks affects my decision-making process it's not worth it.  $200 will be the base bankroll as that is 100 buyins of the $2 tournaments and 200 buyins of the $1 tournaments.  When the bankroll is $220 I will add in the $20 DeepStack, if it is $240 the $20 DeepStack and $20 Midnight Madness will be played and if it's $260 or more I will add in the $20 Knockout. As you can see there will be strict bankroll management for the base $200 and then shots with the $20 tournaments above $200 which is where the real progression towards $2k will come from obviously.  

There are 15 tournaments a day with start times from 11am to 1am in the $1 and $2 range.  Not all will be played as not all go off as planned.  Also if I already have 4 tournaments being played I will not add a 5th, and the fact is I am up usually til 3am watching baseball, basketball and hockey playoffs, and WPT broadcasts so the schedule is not as crazy as it first appears.  If I'm awake anyway I might as well have a tournament or two going.

That's a wrapup on this one.  I got so much sleep during the hospital stay that I didn't fall asleeptil8am this morning and up at 11am for the 1115am tournament.   The caffeine pills will definitely be needed today.  Until next time take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.


Saturday, April 16, 2016

Taking A Break

Hideous session.  Got myself right back where I started pretty much couple of bucks ahead.  Nothing works.  Tried tournaments but hate rebuys.  Tried cash games the swings are absolutely insane even before tonight's session $97 win and pretty much break even for four sessions who needs it.  If I go back to tournaments I'm stuck with $1 and $2 tournaments because as I said before I despise rebuys.  Even if I could maintain the 50% ROI I achieved in tournaments over 200+ played your talking a maximum of  $240 a month in earnings. That will take forever, but if I use those profits to play some $20 tournaments it could accelerate things drastically.  I need a day or 2 to cool off.   I cashed out and I'm gonna go play $2/$4 as soon as the withdraw is processed and see what I can grind up to from $160 however with much less amounts of alcohol in me.  Had to withdraw $50 last week so thats why $160 available.  if I have a nice profitable $2/$4 session at the Nugget I will probably go back and make a deposit.  If I don't have a good session at the Nugget then I'm taking a break until May and will just play freerolls to kill time but for the rest of tonight and tomorrow I'm getting the hell away from this online shit.  In any case, one way or the other, I'll see you at the tables.

A 3000 Hand Session

I got back to the online grind today and prior to the start I had been trying to figure out what is the best start time.  In the limited sessions I've had so far the best session that I've had is when I started at 1 p.m. and as I was able to take advantage of some of the more spewy players that you get after 9pm then I realized something.  So far I've been playing 2000 hands and when I hit that I stopped playing for the day which is not a bad idea on the surface, but then the thought occurred to me what if I could take advantage of both worlds.  Get started at 11am and play to 11pm thus getting a couple of hours during that "spewy time" as I call it.  It is a 12 our grind in which I always allow myself a dinner break, but the good part about it is that I will get in more than 2000 hands a day and instead of focusing on the amount of hands I'm playing it would simply be a certain start time a certain end time.  This is exactly what I plan on doing when I am playing the live limit games on a daily basis and I'm quite sure those sessions will go 12 hours as well, so why not implement that now.  My sessions usually run 9 or 10 hours and an extra 2 or 3 hours shouldn't matter and as a matter of fact would give me the opportunity to take an extra break if I wanted to so going into today's action that's exactly what I decided to do.  If I felt fatigued and tired I would simply pop a caffeine pill as I definitely did want to get a couple of hours played during that "spewy time" because although the variance during that time is definitely increased as opposed to other times during the day and early evening it can definitely pay some very high dividends.

So today's session I saw myself set a personal record for volume. Roughly 12 hours maybe a little less and 3086 hands played.  I have never before played that many hands in a single session.  Thing started out very well as within the first 800 hands played I was up 4.6 buyins, a nice $46.  I knew it really didn't mean anything except that I had gotten a quick positive start because even in a 2000 hand session I know how variance shows itself throughout and I kinda had a feeling that if I did pull the full 12 hours that I might come close to hitting 3000 hands so if 2000 hands had variance throughout I could only imagine what an extra thousand hands would include.
As great as the first 800 hands went the following 800 hands were atrocious.  In those following 800 hands I went from a $46 profit to down $26 for the session a $73 downswing in a single session or 7.3 buyins.  It is the nature of multi-tabling, but let me tell you something it can be both depressing and frustrating at the same time.  That's the thing about a session like three 3000 hands.  You can go through a complete downswing and come out of it all in the same session.
So 1610 hands in I'm down $26 for the session and 1000 hands later I was up $7.  It was a recovery of 3.3 buyins and things were improving and just 150 hands later I was up $24 for the session which was a full five buyin increase and when it was all said and done just under 300 hands later I ended the night up $27.76 which was exactly to earnings expectation of 9bb/100.

Some readers in the past have expressed concern that longer sessions generate worse results and I was quite happy to see, although I knew that was not accurate, but I was happy to see it with my own eyes today that had I stopped at 2,000 hands like I normally have been it would have been a losing situation but because I put those extra thousand hands in today it turned into a day of profit.  It's kind of funny I played five sessions now and when you add four of them together I'm winning less than a dollar in about nine thousand hands and then there's one 2000 hand session where I won $97. It's just funny how it runs sometimes.  Poker is such a crazy game.   The reason longer sessions do not affect me adversely is because if I get tired or fatigued I will call it a night, but quite frankly the caffeine pills this morning got me through the entire day.   The only fatigue I felt was the last half-hour so all in all the 12 hour such an experiment was a success.

My earn rate which I originally thought would be 10 has been reduced to 9.  My style of play, combined with the stakes I'm playing, and the player pool I'm up against, 9bb/100 seems to be what is me expectation.  It's what it was over the first 50,00p hands played and it continues to be that or actually just a smidgen under that, over the first 11,000 hands that I've played this time around and I'm quite satisfied with 9bb/100 because especially with the increased hands per day it will easily get me in excess of 60,000 hands a month and quite possibly over 70,000, but even if we base things on the lower amount of 60,000 hands, the proven earn rate of 9bb/100 and 60 APPs per session that equals $540 in earnings and $60 in rakeback for total earnings of $600 a month.   Add the $200 I started the switch back to nl cash games with and that's my $2k in 3 months and this is based on only 20 days played each month.  Now, I got a slightly late start for the month of April but still should get a minimum 40,000 hands played for the month of April.  So April should be $360 in earnings, another $35 in rakeback and this is all based on play at $10NL.  If I can show success at $20NL it will go even faster, but worse case scenario is I am grinding $2/$4 live limit games with a $2,000 bankroll no later than August 1st, 2016.

The staked session I played at the Mirage with "Alan" on Thursday was absolutely horrendous.  I ended up losing two full $200 buyins.  This will be the end of any further No Limit cash game stakes.  It was one of those games where you got some fat head aggro who at the same time was a complete luckbox.  The kind of guy that would call a raise with Q4o and Flop 2 pair, raise with garbage and turn 2 pair, that sort of thing, completely disgusting.  He would continuation bet flop and turn and I had several draws against him and every single one of the draws died a lonely death.  The loss of the second buy-in came when I had flopped a set of tens, was all in on the turn and the guy next to me ends up getting a straight but at least it wasn't the fathead luckbox.  Not much of a consolation but nonetheless I'm glad it wasn't him.   It was just one of those sessions that nothing could go right for me or "Alan" for that matter.  Obviously no limit cash games, even though I am grinding those online to build up the bankroll I want for full time limit play, these No Limit cash games still are not my complete comfort zone area.  Yes, I can play them and play them well, but I'm much more adept, much more comfortable, and no doubt much more successful in limit games.  As a matter of fact I already know that Alan does not want to further pursue any sort of stake, but even if he did I would tell him don't put me in the $1/$2 No Limit game.  If he were going to risk future $200 buyins it would be much more intelligent to put me into a limit game, but as we all know those profits come more slowly.  I was extraordinary apologetic for the session, but in the email Alan told me not to beat myself up as in which the way I lost the second buyin there's not a lot I could do over a situation like that which made me feel a little bit better, but I am still reeling from the fact that I lost.  If it were my own money I wouldn't give a damn, but when it belongs to somebody else, when I'm playing for someone else it really affects me deeply with more remorse and regret than I would have if it was my own money being risked.  Some people may think that's foolish, but that's simply the way I am. 

That's all for now.  Total earnings just under 10 full buyins in the first 11,00p hands so it's a so far so good kind of situation.  Alarm set for 10 a.m. so I can get right back at it tomorrow.  Still trying to juggle finances to see if I can sneak in a live $2/$4 session when I get paid in a couple of weeks, still crunching numbers so we'll see if that's going to be feasible.  Until next time, take care everyone, and I'll see you at the tables.

Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Colossus ll Decision And What Is The Real Earn Rate Expectation

Looks like unless something major happens that I will not be playing in Colossus ll in the 2016 WSOP.  The fact of the matter is getting this $2k to play live on a daily basis is of the utmost importance to me and when you think about it if I were to buy in for the $565 for Colossus ll that would be a huge percentage of that $2k that I am after.  Before I would do that I would put that money towards the $2k fund because to me that takes top priority.  Now its not definitely out.  There have been some people that have mentioned an interest in buying a piece of that tournament and if I sell half the action I will enter it.  If anyone is interested in purchasing shares in this tournament I will be willing to release up to 50% of this tournament and possibly more if people are interested.  It would be a straight up share purchase, no markup of any kind.  If you pay 20% of the entry fee you get 20% of any profit made from the investment.  If anyone is interested then email me directly at flushhdraw@gmail.com and we can discuss it in a more private manner than we can in the comment section here.  unfortunately I do not have a lot of tournaments in a live setting to base anything on mostly online, but since I have been on WSOP in 235 tournaments played I have a total ROI of 43.7%, but Colossus ll will have over 25,000 entries so nothing before this, whether live or online, can be compared.

Today's 2000+ hand session was a loss of just under three buyins.  At one point I was up a buyin and a half so that was almost a four and a half buyin swing.  When was all said and done and the smoke cleared in the first 8100 hands I have earned $70.02, 7 full buyins, with an earn rate of 8.6bb/100.  Am I running below expectation??  I'm not sure.  I had said that my goal was 10bb/100, but when I ran the numbers of what I have done previously and rounding things off just a little bit, I had earned $450 at the $10NL tables in 50,000 hands.  It was actually a few dollars more and a little over a thousand hands more played, but rounding things off that comes out to 9bb/100 and at the time I recall I was in the midst of a slight downswing, but since I was running at about 12bb/100 was I in a down swing or was variance just evening out the long term and was in fact 9bb/100 the most reasonable expectation for this level on this site with this player pool.  I find it's more than coincidence that I ended at 9bb/100 and this time I'm starting out almost at the same rate.  Like everything in poker it's about the long-term so we'll see what I'm looking at when I've logged 50,000 hands this time around.

Instead of grabbing my rakeback of just a couple of dollars each day I decided to let build up and just make points to dollars transfers every $10.  That way when I do it I'm adding a full buyin to the bankroll from rakeback.  In a couple of days I should be getting an additional $20 added to my account as the stud Hi-Lo session that I played before I switched back to these cash games, although it was a loss, put me on the limit leaderboard promotion and $20 will be added.   They pay the top 15 and the funny thing is right now 15th Place has less than 2 APPs at the limit tables because limit tables are so damn few and far between so if that's the case I should be able to score $20 every single week if this pattern holds over the entire month.

The live cash game session that was supposed to take place Sunday got postponed by my staker and I emailed him Friday seemed like a good choice to which he was agreeable to this, but since it looks like I'm going to be playing some $2/$4 limit on Thursday night downtown, I emailed him tonight to find out since I'm going to be in that area of town if Thursday would be ok and I am currently awaiting a reply to that email, but if he is agreeable on Thursday I should be playing in a $1/$2 No Limit cash game during the afternoon and then a $2/$4 limit cash game in the evening.  Both of these are stakes.  The no limit by Alan and the limit by a friend of mine.  There's actually more to the $2/$4 cash game then a simple session.  If the $2/$4 cash game is successful then that night's profits will be utilized for a stake to a $50NL session on WSOP, but first things first and in order to proceed to step 2 we need to double that $100 buy-in at the very least before we can proceed.

In conclusion looks like I will finally get the opportunity to meet the one, the only, the Midwest Marauder himself, the undisputed king of the Illinois card sharks, the infamous Lightningggggggggg!!!!  He is planning on a trip out here in May and I look forward to meeting someone who has always come off as a very respectful gentleman and I  look forward to facing off with him hopefully in a tournament situation.   Will be a pleasure to meet him in person. 

That's a wrap.  Tomorrow's session will take me over the 10,000 hand mark.  I noticed in the four sessions the three that I started at noon were a very small win, a very small loss, and a medium loss but, the one that I started at 1 p.m. was a huge win.  I don't know if there's any correlation between starting later and results, but just for kicks I'm going to start at 2 p.m. tomorrow which will get me more play with the night time players that definitely tend to be more wild and spewy.  It can increase the variance but let's see what happens. So until next time, take care everyone, and I'll see you at the tables. 

Sunday, April 10, 2016

Breaking Out Of The Break Even Run

The first 4000 hands since I returned to the online cash tables or what might also be be called my "Return To Discipline" as I am determined to focus on my work at the poker tables and not running around drinking like a sailor on leave and spending money like it's water every time I get a few bucks turned out to be a return to those cash tables without much excitement. In the first two sessions covering just over 4000 hands I made a total of $1.09.  It was obvious to me that to get up to my goal earn rate it was going to take an elongated climb with a start like that, or so I thought.  Today's session I completely broke through this run of mediocrity to the tune of earnings of nearly 1000 big blinds, over 9.7 full buyins.  2025 hands and earnings of $97.34, easily my single best session ever. 

It looked like it was going to be a another either small win or small loss session.  Within the first 1200 hands I saw me go up about $13 and then I was down about $14 for the session.  After 1180 hands I was showing a $5 profit.  Over the next 800 hands I earned over 9 buyins.  Absolutely insane.  No way I could have predicted something like that.  A definite nice way to finish things off before taking Sunday off and returning to the online tables on Monday. 

Along with a nice profit I also achieved Silver status on WSOP which means I will be getting my version of rakeback starting on Monday.  With Silver status every APP point I earn at the tables is worth 4 WSOP points and every 100 WSOP points is worth $1.  What all this adds up to is at this moment in time since I roughly average approximately 40 points a day at the level I play that's a $1.60 a day in points to cash transfer.  Just to make it easier I'm just going to always refer to this as rakeback even if it really isn't officially, it's my version of it.  It will take me approximately 5 days to reach Gold status and the day following that I will be earning roughly $2 a day in rakeback.  I know it doesn't sound like much, but once I hit gold status if I play an average of 25 days a month that's an additional $50 a month added to the bankroll without me having to do anything except play poker on a daily basis which is what I'm doing and every extra dollar can come in handy.  I made 200 points this month so far and the next 200 points will get me to Gold status.  I got a slightly late start so I don't think there's any way possible I can make Platinum Status as I would need to earn 1000 more points this month and that won't happen at $10NL.  The APP to WSOP point rate is 4x for Silver, 5x for Gold, and 6x for Platinum.  So as a Gold status 40 APP points a day equals 200 WSOP points and $1 for every 100 WSOP equals $2 a day in rakeback. 

With the increase in bankroll I'm already thinking of the next level that being $20NL which was a limit I was going to completely avoid entirely and simply stick with $10NL the entire way.  I will admit part of it of the reasoning behind it was because of what I observed the last time I was playing these online cash games.  I'm not trying to start any conspiracy theories about the site and it could have been simple variance, but the fact of the matter is I saw a lot of players using the words "set up" at that level the last time I was playing these No Limit cash games.   These were not losing players, these were solid consistent winning players.  I'm not going to say definitely yes and I'm not going to say definitely no all I am saying is that this seems to be the general consensus within the player pool.   $20NL obviously has the potential benefits of more money being earned, more points being earned for rakeback and getting to my $2k goal that much faster, but I do have reservations I will admit this.  My last experience on them was break even for 10,000 hands.  First of all I'm not even going to touch those tables and till I have at least a $400 bankroll which is 20 full buyins for them and I will be taking it extraordinarily slow.  If I do decide to play $20NL when the time comes it would be done with just a single buyin stop loss and if a buyin was lost on those tables then that $20 would have to be recouped at the $10 tables before I try it again.  I am not going to double my stakes and run into a 5 Buy in downswing I will not allow that to happen. Once I  have earned 5 buyins then I can add a second $20 table and a 2 buyin stop loss and so forth and so on.  I plan on taking no unnecessary chances.

Well that's all for now.  No doubt about it it was a fantastic day on the online tables and tomorrow I may be playing on a stake as I have to confirm that in the morning, but either way I'm taking tomorrow off from the online tables and will get right back at it on Monday.  So far getting in 2000 hands a day seems to take around nine or ten hours depending on how long of a dinner break I take which is better than having to grind 12 full hours which gets somewhat tiring.  I feel the fatigue after 9 or 10 hours so the timing is working well.  If I get started by noon and I am usually done by 10 p.m.  Until next time, take care everyone, and I'll see you at the tables.

Saturday, April 9, 2016

Getting Nowhere Fast But Potential On The Horizon

Two days, just over 4,000 hands played, and earnings of $1.09.  The only thing I can say is that it's better than a full-fledged downswing.  Haven't really been going through too many bad beats it's more so more annoying things which I guess in of themselves could be considered bad beats.  As an example during today's session with a 2345 on the board and me holding the 6 on two different occasions the river was a 6 so instead of me taking down a fairly nice pot it ended up being chopped between me and my opponent who by the way did not have a 6.  A couple of flushes beaten by a higher flushes, lost with a set at least twice and when you add all that up together it could have easily been a lot worse than the $7.85 that I lost today so I guess in some ways I should feel fortunate, however it is a little frustrating knowing that you you're bringing your absolute A game every second and it not being paid off at least in the short term.  If I didn't have the ability to lay down big hands when needed it would have been a lot worse so I'm pretty proud of myself on that.  Case in point was a hand where I flopped a set of sevens and by the time the river hit there was three clubs on the board and three cards to the straight.  I believe it was something along the lines of a nine, queen, king and when the opponent on my left bet the river and another opponent then raised this river bet a little more than double I knew that my set was garbage and laid it down as fast as I could click the mouse button and sure enough one of the opponents had the flush and the other opponent had the straight.

Looks like I'll be taking the weekend off from online poker.  Should be heading over to my friend's house tomorrow will probably crash on the couch overnight like I usually do when I hang out with her and then on Sunday I may be playing at the Strat under a stake from "Alan".  Through an email he let me know that his invitation of the stake is still open and I decided to take him up on it for Sunday.  I have to email him Sunday morning to make sure it's a go, but right now it looks like it very well may be.  When we email back and forth "Alan" always tells me the offer is open anytime I want and the more I think about it the more I realize I should be taking him up on his offer more often.  Not that I have made a great amount of money doing it so far but at least I have shown a $70 profit after the three times that he has staked me.  I lost $65 the first two sessions $30 on the first session and $35 in the second session but ended up winning a $135 on the third session.  As long as I can be making money doing this it would be insane not to do it as often as he is willing.  Obviously he is the man providing the funds for this so as often as he wants it to happen I should accept this opportunity each and every time it is presented to me.   These stakes to the no limit cash game, provided I can make earnings from it could get me to my $2k goal a lot faster.  

Another thing that is also looks like it may be happening is that another friend of mine is offering to stake me to a $100 buyin this upcoming week in a $2/$4 limit game.  The idea from this is to turn that $100 into $200 then take the $100 in earnings which would be $50 a piece as he would get his initial investment back and then use that $100 and stake me to a session of the $50NL tables on wsop.com.  This too also has the potential of getting me to the $2k bankroll faster and quicker. 

Assuming I do in fact play in the No Limit cash game for those of you that follow me on Twitter I will attempt to to make update tweets during the session.  That's a wrap up for tonight.  Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

Friday, April 8, 2016

Not Exactly Hitting Expectation

First some comment responses.  

Doufous said in part:

since you say you have $350 per month to add to the poker roll.....Where is all that money from the past 6 months? There is your $2000 bankroll, but it has vanished. I think if you were really committed, you would have built the roll through the means you originally set forth in addition to online grinding.

I'll be honest I spent the last few months more concerned with having fun.  Grabbing the profits spending it as fast as I get them.  I won't lie about it that's exactly what's been going on.  More concerned with getting out with the night crowds at times then what I should be doing.  I'm hoping that I've got that out of me and I can focus on what I need to do.  



xdex said:

Flush, I think your heart is not in it anymore and the $200 will be gone before you know it. If you really want $2000 why not take a part-time job for few months? Maybe something that pays cash instead of working for a big company.

Even if the leg which put me on disability was able to do that previously since I had the near-death hospitalization with a massive clot in the lung and consequently the killing of part of that right lung my stamina for a lot of things is lessened.  I'm still in recovery mode according to my doctor and it will take a long long time.  My heart is in what I want to be doing, but sometimes my impulses of getting out and having fun in this adults playground I live in gets the better of me. 



Memphis MOJO said:

You pride yourself on your discipline, but it definitely sounds like it's slipping.

You're absolutely right Mojo that's exactly what I've been allowing to happen. That was part of the point of the last post is realizing what I've been doing, realizing the time that I've been wasting and hopefully getting back on track and doing what I need to do.



Pokerdogg said:

I am not a hater and not going to rake you over the coal. I do have a comment and a question though. You could have figured out the estimated earnings of $10/day before you made the last switch. I know the 25% ROI is a guesstimate, but it is as good a guess as any at this point and you probably had the same figure in mind before March. My question is about the stats on your blog. It shows the tournament results since March 2016. Why aren't you including all tournament results since you started on this site? The more samples, the closer to the true ROI the numbers will be. 
Good luck as usual.

No, Mr. Dogg, I have never looked at you as a hater.  I have looked at you as somebody that always seems to know what he's talking about and I try to absorb your comments specifically as much as I can because of the surface they seem consistently intelligent and insightful.
I had deleted the tournanent stats on the blog and then would start fresh and if I switched back or what not I wourld track it fresh.  I did check PokerProLabs and this is what they have on me for tournament play at wsop.com.   I have posted the screenshot below.  My ROI during my PokerStars days in which I play there for six or seven years playing hundreds and hundreds of tournaments was a 24% ROI so I figured 25% because of my track record seems extraordinarily reasonable.  If you'll notice on the PokerProLabs screenshot I am exceeding that on wsop.com, but nobody can keep an ROI like that in MTTs so it is quite obvious to me that my sample size for MTTs on wsop.com is far far too small.  As you may or may not know cash game play is impossible to track because of the lack of hand histories, but when I played them previously I made $450 or so at $10NL in just over 50,000 hands and I believe I was pretty much break even at $20NL albeit in a much smaller amount of hands played, 10,000-15,000 hands if memory serves.  





So April 7th, 2016, day 1 on the return to the $10NL tables with a $200 bankroll, 20 full buy ins.  My daily goals are 2000 hands, a 10bb/100 earn rate, and $20 in earnings.  Day one was not as successful as I would have liked.  I did in fact meet expectations in volume, however I did not exactly meet expectations in earnings.  It wasn't an overly swingy day as the worst I was in the course of the day was a single buyin down and the best that I was relatively early in the session was approximately $24 up, but variance being what it is the session was pretty much like a yo-yo and when it was all said and done I played 2007 hands for a total profit of $8.94 and a 4.45bb/100 earn rate.  Ughhh an absolutely pathetic performance, but it was just one of those days where nothing spectacular was happening.  Never lost a full stack during the course of the session but a couple of times I lost a majority of my stack and I also stacked some short stacks 3 of 4 times, but other than that the session was pretty boring.

That's a wrap up for tonight.  Will be playing another 2,000 hand session on Friday, taking Saturday off to go hang out with a friend, and then back at it again on Sunday.  Hopefully Friday's session will be better than tonight, but you know what they say, the smallest win is better than any loss.  So with that said I will say take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.  


Thursday, April 7, 2016

Not Fast Enough

Been awhile since I posted but I've been a little busy lately.  Unfortunately it's not the kind of busy that makes money it's the kind of busy that loses money.  On Thursday the 31st I took the opportunity to go out and have a really good time and play some live poker.  On Sunday I hung out with a friend and on Monday I was back on the live poker scene again.  Monday morning I played at the Orleans which I had tweeted about and then went over to the Golden Nugget and lost my ass at the $2/$4 tables.  Unfortunately the night sessions on both Thursday and Monday were instances where one might say I made a few plays, saw certain flops,  preflop raised certain holdings, and called down some bets to showdown, that were not exactly the kind of poker I usually play and unfortunately one of my new loves, namely a cocktail called a White Russian may have been somewhat directly related to my, shall we say, unusual poker choices at the $2/$4 tables so I'm thinking maybe that perhaps the ohhhh dozen or so White Russians might possibly have been inducing my actions.  Let's just say that on Thursday and Monday there was a moderate amount of drinking involved especially during the evenings and as coincidence would have it Thursday evening I took my heaviest loss on that day about $77 down and Monday evening I took my  heaviest loss of that day $178 down so I'm kind of seeing a correlation between the drinking habits as the day progresses and the wins and loss amounts.  I mean I truly felt like I had my shit together, but numbers don't lie.  When I'm drinking Malibu Bay Breezes you're dealing with alcohol that's only 40 proof and you can drink all you want and it not affect you, but lately my drink of choice has been the White Russians and those aren't exactly only 40 proof.

Tournaments online for April have been hideous and I'm talking two small cashes about 30 played.  As hot as I ran in March this is of no real surprise as variance is just evening things out, but, and here is the big but, it's not going fast enough.  Profits are not being accumulated fast enough and won't be accumulated fast enough under the current plan.  Looking at the numbers let's say my average total buyins on an average day is $40.   We will also say that the realistic ROI I can expect over the long term is 25%.  You can do the math yourself or I can do it for you.  That comes out to an average profit per day of $10.   It doesn't matter how hot I ran during March, the fact of the matter is when variance evens itself out I'm looking at an average profit per day of $10. There is no way on God's green earth that is even remotely acceptable.   

The way I look at it I only have two choices left.  The first is withdraw the $200 which I posted on Twitter that I was doing and take it and play $2/$4 for as long as it lasts, however in a much less alcohol induced state, or go back to what I originally was doing even though I don't care for it, I don't like it, I hate the swings in it, but the fact is in just a couple of months I made $450 in just over 50,000 hands played doing it and that's returning to the online $10NL cash games.  If I choose the latter option, if memory serves correct, my earn rate was about 10 big blinds per 100 hands played and if I can play 2000 hands a day that would be an average profit of $20 per day. Double what I would make playing those small buyin tournaments and could in fact have the $2,000 I require for the live daily $2/$4 game in 100 days flat.  

Yes, once again I'm changing my approach and this oughta give my haters all the reason in the world to really rake me over the coals, but the fact of the matter is, and I'm the first to admit, I try one thing and then I try something else and now I'm going back, but the only way for me to figure out what the best way is to accomplish things is to try something and see if it works, see if it's everything I want it to be.  I just wish the Plaza hadn't closed down their Poker Room.  I know I was only playing $10 tournaments, but I was getting out every day, socializing, and enjoying every second of it.  I knew where I was going and exactly what I was doing on a daily basis, there was nothing to question, and now that I'm back online I feel like I'm totally lost.

As far as playing Colossus in this year's WSOP that may need to be cancelled.  I need to look at the long-term big picture of what I'm trying to accomplish and the fact of the matter is say I have as an example $350 a month left over that I can stash away and save for Colossus over the next two months, that's $700 that I could add to the bankroll that would get me that much closer to the $2,000 mark.  That $700 is a full 35% of the overall goal.  How can I ignore that.  I'm still thinking it over, but at this point I'm thinking that I am going to have to cancel my plans for this year's WSOP and simply play next year because quite frankly playing full-time on a daily basis is far more important than playing in a single tournament in June.

That's a wrap up for now.  I have exactly $200 online.  When I thought I was withdrawing I kinda sorta dropped $60 in a $0.50/$1 Stud H/L cash game.  Oh well shit happens, but I have exactly $200 to restart this progress work towards $2K beginning tomorrow or later today depending on how you look at things.  I'm figuring playing 12pm to 12am and that should get me my minimum 2000 hands a day I am looking for and I'm starting off with 20 full buyins and the worst downswing I experienced when I played these tables previously was 10 buyins so the 20 buyins should cover.   Also no more tapping the bankroll for going out and having fun, and drinkin like a sailor on leave.  Time to be 100% serious.  There will be time for fun and games when this us accomplished.  Time to grab some much-needed sleep. Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.