Wednesday, April 13, 2016

Colossus ll Decision And What Is The Real Earn Rate Expectation

Looks like unless something major happens that I will not be playing in Colossus ll in the 2016 WSOP.  The fact of the matter is getting this $2k to play live on a daily basis is of the utmost importance to me and when you think about it if I were to buy in for the $565 for Colossus ll that would be a huge percentage of that $2k that I am after.  Before I would do that I would put that money towards the $2k fund because to me that takes top priority.  Now its not definitely out.  There have been some people that have mentioned an interest in buying a piece of that tournament and if I sell half the action I will enter it.  If anyone is interested in purchasing shares in this tournament I will be willing to release up to 50% of this tournament and possibly more if people are interested.  It would be a straight up share purchase, no markup of any kind.  If you pay 20% of the entry fee you get 20% of any profit made from the investment.  If anyone is interested then email me directly at flushhdraw@gmail.com and we can discuss it in a more private manner than we can in the comment section here.  unfortunately I do not have a lot of tournaments in a live setting to base anything on mostly online, but since I have been on WSOP in 235 tournaments played I have a total ROI of 43.7%, but Colossus ll will have over 25,000 entries so nothing before this, whether live or online, can be compared.

Today's 2000+ hand session was a loss of just under three buyins.  At one point I was up a buyin and a half so that was almost a four and a half buyin swing.  When was all said and done and the smoke cleared in the first 8100 hands I have earned $70.02, 7 full buyins, with an earn rate of 8.6bb/100.  Am I running below expectation??  I'm not sure.  I had said that my goal was 10bb/100, but when I ran the numbers of what I have done previously and rounding things off just a little bit, I had earned $450 at the $10NL tables in 50,000 hands.  It was actually a few dollars more and a little over a thousand hands more played, but rounding things off that comes out to 9bb/100 and at the time I recall I was in the midst of a slight downswing, but since I was running at about 12bb/100 was I in a down swing or was variance just evening out the long term and was in fact 9bb/100 the most reasonable expectation for this level on this site with this player pool.  I find it's more than coincidence that I ended at 9bb/100 and this time I'm starting out almost at the same rate.  Like everything in poker it's about the long-term so we'll see what I'm looking at when I've logged 50,000 hands this time around.

Instead of grabbing my rakeback of just a couple of dollars each day I decided to let build up and just make points to dollars transfers every $10.  That way when I do it I'm adding a full buyin to the bankroll from rakeback.  In a couple of days I should be getting an additional $20 added to my account as the stud Hi-Lo session that I played before I switched back to these cash games, although it was a loss, put me on the limit leaderboard promotion and $20 will be added.   They pay the top 15 and the funny thing is right now 15th Place has less than 2 APPs at the limit tables because limit tables are so damn few and far between so if that's the case I should be able to score $20 every single week if this pattern holds over the entire month.

The live cash game session that was supposed to take place Sunday got postponed by my staker and I emailed him Friday seemed like a good choice to which he was agreeable to this, but since it looks like I'm going to be playing some $2/$4 limit on Thursday night downtown, I emailed him tonight to find out since I'm going to be in that area of town if Thursday would be ok and I am currently awaiting a reply to that email, but if he is agreeable on Thursday I should be playing in a $1/$2 No Limit cash game during the afternoon and then a $2/$4 limit cash game in the evening.  Both of these are stakes.  The no limit by Alan and the limit by a friend of mine.  There's actually more to the $2/$4 cash game then a simple session.  If the $2/$4 cash game is successful then that night's profits will be utilized for a stake to a $50NL session on WSOP, but first things first and in order to proceed to step 2 we need to double that $100 buy-in at the very least before we can proceed.

In conclusion looks like I will finally get the opportunity to meet the one, the only, the Midwest Marauder himself, the undisputed king of the Illinois card sharks, the infamous Lightningggggggggg!!!!  He is planning on a trip out here in May and I look forward to meeting someone who has always come off as a very respectful gentleman and I  look forward to facing off with him hopefully in a tournament situation.   Will be a pleasure to meet him in person. 

That's a wrap.  Tomorrow's session will take me over the 10,000 hand mark.  I noticed in the four sessions the three that I started at noon were a very small win, a very small loss, and a medium loss but, the one that I started at 1 p.m. was a huge win.  I don't know if there's any correlation between starting later and results, but just for kicks I'm going to start at 2 p.m. tomorrow which will get me more play with the night time players that definitely tend to be more wild and spewy.  It can increase the variance but let's see what happens. So until next time, take care everyone, and I'll see you at the tables. 

1 comment:

  1. Midwest Marauder? More like the Midwest Poker Frauder! If you like that Mirage tourney you mentioned earlier, that seems like a good one to me. May be we could even get a few more people to play -- Kristi, Alysia, Michelle, maybe even smokin' and tokin' Steve. Chris A could come to show us how it is done - lol.

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