Thursday, April 7, 2016

Not Fast Enough

Been awhile since I posted but I've been a little busy lately.  Unfortunately it's not the kind of busy that makes money it's the kind of busy that loses money.  On Thursday the 31st I took the opportunity to go out and have a really good time and play some live poker.  On Sunday I hung out with a friend and on Monday I was back on the live poker scene again.  Monday morning I played at the Orleans which I had tweeted about and then went over to the Golden Nugget and lost my ass at the $2/$4 tables.  Unfortunately the night sessions on both Thursday and Monday were instances where one might say I made a few plays, saw certain flops,  preflop raised certain holdings, and called down some bets to showdown, that were not exactly the kind of poker I usually play and unfortunately one of my new loves, namely a cocktail called a White Russian may have been somewhat directly related to my, shall we say, unusual poker choices at the $2/$4 tables so I'm thinking maybe that perhaps the ohhhh dozen or so White Russians might possibly have been inducing my actions.  Let's just say that on Thursday and Monday there was a moderate amount of drinking involved especially during the evenings and as coincidence would have it Thursday evening I took my heaviest loss on that day about $77 down and Monday evening I took my  heaviest loss of that day $178 down so I'm kind of seeing a correlation between the drinking habits as the day progresses and the wins and loss amounts.  I mean I truly felt like I had my shit together, but numbers don't lie.  When I'm drinking Malibu Bay Breezes you're dealing with alcohol that's only 40 proof and you can drink all you want and it not affect you, but lately my drink of choice has been the White Russians and those aren't exactly only 40 proof.

Tournaments online for April have been hideous and I'm talking two small cashes about 30 played.  As hot as I ran in March this is of no real surprise as variance is just evening things out, but, and here is the big but, it's not going fast enough.  Profits are not being accumulated fast enough and won't be accumulated fast enough under the current plan.  Looking at the numbers let's say my average total buyins on an average day is $40.   We will also say that the realistic ROI I can expect over the long term is 25%.  You can do the math yourself or I can do it for you.  That comes out to an average profit per day of $10.   It doesn't matter how hot I ran during March, the fact of the matter is when variance evens itself out I'm looking at an average profit per day of $10. There is no way on God's green earth that is even remotely acceptable.   

The way I look at it I only have two choices left.  The first is withdraw the $200 which I posted on Twitter that I was doing and take it and play $2/$4 for as long as it lasts, however in a much less alcohol induced state, or go back to what I originally was doing even though I don't care for it, I don't like it, I hate the swings in it, but the fact is in just a couple of months I made $450 in just over 50,000 hands played doing it and that's returning to the online $10NL cash games.  If I choose the latter option, if memory serves correct, my earn rate was about 10 big blinds per 100 hands played and if I can play 2000 hands a day that would be an average profit of $20 per day. Double what I would make playing those small buyin tournaments and could in fact have the $2,000 I require for the live daily $2/$4 game in 100 days flat.  

Yes, once again I'm changing my approach and this oughta give my haters all the reason in the world to really rake me over the coals, but the fact of the matter is, and I'm the first to admit, I try one thing and then I try something else and now I'm going back, but the only way for me to figure out what the best way is to accomplish things is to try something and see if it works, see if it's everything I want it to be.  I just wish the Plaza hadn't closed down their Poker Room.  I know I was only playing $10 tournaments, but I was getting out every day, socializing, and enjoying every second of it.  I knew where I was going and exactly what I was doing on a daily basis, there was nothing to question, and now that I'm back online I feel like I'm totally lost.

As far as playing Colossus in this year's WSOP that may need to be cancelled.  I need to look at the long-term big picture of what I'm trying to accomplish and the fact of the matter is say I have as an example $350 a month left over that I can stash away and save for Colossus over the next two months, that's $700 that I could add to the bankroll that would get me that much closer to the $2,000 mark.  That $700 is a full 35% of the overall goal.  How can I ignore that.  I'm still thinking it over, but at this point I'm thinking that I am going to have to cancel my plans for this year's WSOP and simply play next year because quite frankly playing full-time on a daily basis is far more important than playing in a single tournament in June.

That's a wrap up for now.  I have exactly $200 online.  When I thought I was withdrawing I kinda sorta dropped $60 in a $0.50/$1 Stud H/L cash game.  Oh well shit happens, but I have exactly $200 to restart this progress work towards $2K beginning tomorrow or later today depending on how you look at things.  I'm figuring playing 12pm to 12am and that should get me my minimum 2000 hands a day I am looking for and I'm starting off with 20 full buyins and the worst downswing I experienced when I played these tables previously was 10 buyins so the 20 buyins should cover.   Also no more tapping the bankroll for going out and having fun, and drinkin like a sailor on leave.  Time to be 100% serious.  There will be time for fun and games when this us accomplished.  Time to grab some much-needed sleep. Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

4 comments:

  1. since you say you have $350 per month to add to the poker roll.....Where is all that money from the past 6 months? There is your $2000 bankroll, but it has vanished. I think if you were really committed, you would have built the roll through the means you originally set forth in addition to online grinding.

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  2. Flush, I think your heart is not in it anymore and the $200 will be gone before you know it. If you really want $2000 why not take a part-time job for few months? Maybe something that pays cash instead of working for a big company.

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  3. You pride yourself on your discipline, but it definitely sounds like it's slipping.

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  4. I am not a hater and not going to rake you over the coal. I do have a comment and a question though. You could have figured out the estimated earnings of $10/day before you made the last switch. I know the 25% ROI is a guesstimate, but it is as good a guess as any at this point and you probably had the same figure in mind before March. My question is about the stats on your blog. It shows the tournament results since March 2016. Why aren't you including all tournament results since you started on this site? The more samples, the closer to the true ROI the numbers will be.

    Good luck as usual.

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