Sunday, May 15, 2016

This Needs A Whole New Approach

Well, the no-limit cash games have gone something like 15,000 hands and I ended up between $10NL and $20NL being down about 3 buyins total maybe a little more. Time to wipe the slate clean and figure out what the hell is going on. Actually at $20NL I ended up showing about a $33 profit but at $10NL down about six and a half buyins. Obviously trying to do a hand review of 15,000 hands is ridiculous especially when I pretty much know what has been happening for these 15,000 hands. I have never seen so many under pairs flop sets against me as I have during this time frame. It not just borders on the ridiculous it surpasses it by a fkn mile.  So many times a hand I have dominated has been coming up with a miracle 2 pair whether that be on the turn or the river. Examples such as I have AK and they have AJ, or I have KQ and they have KT, things of that nature. 

There have been other things that I have noticed of late and because I needed some time at the tables, the learning process was one that it was going to take me a little while to pick up on. Granted I've played these tables before, but somethings changed over the last couple or few months, something has changed big time and it involves the players themselves. With a few exceptions a lot of these players are relatively solid. Some are a little bit over aggressive and you have your donks but even the over aggressive players seem to know when to back off. The thing that I have learned playing against the same players over the last 15,000 hands is that they do not recklessly put money into the pot and when they are betting what would be considered substantial amounts or firing out on the turn after a flop check call or calling both the flop and the turn and then firing out on the river they have something pretty substantial and for the first 15,000 hands during this new learning process I was probably calling far too many bets which led to me being down about $30. 

Another thing these players do not do is take when an opponent 3 bets lightly. In order to make the most profit I have realized that I must create more trap type situations. These trap situations come with their own inherent risks obviously. If you have AA and you are just cold-calling the raise in order to check raise the original raiser on the flop or the turn, attempting to limp with big pocket pairs in early position so that you can pull a limp/3 bet in order to get some value which is something that I have done a lot of and quite successfully, but there are times you could find yourself in a position where there are too many people going to the flop or you're allowing your opponent to hit a decent hand such as a set or two pair, but I kid you not, I would say that 17 out of 20 times that I 3 Bet preflop everybody is folding.  I think this is showing me that I can through that a little later, but these players are not stupid and if I start doing that a little bit too much they are going to pick up on it. There are a lot of regs at the tables and they are good solid smart poker players and are too damn disciplined and it's not that I need to find a site that has less disciplined players, what I need to do is figure out how to take advantage of the player pool I am exposed to at the current time and I think with the things that I have already mentioned I am ready to get back on those tables and start earning some serious profits, but it's going to take a whole new approach. A lot of the things that I have been doing need to be readjusted to try to make the most profit possible.  It's going to be a lot more believing of bets, there's going to be a lot more cold calling, and there's going to be a lot more trapping by me. Conniving, deceiving and hidden values of a lot of big hands are going to be what's needed to get these players to put their money in when they in fact don't have the best of it.

The only problem is, my available online balance is exactly $190. This is 19 buyins and I am convinced that with the variance and the downswing amounts that I have seen that a minimum bankroll of 30 buyins and perhaps even 40 is required for 4 tabling online on WSOP. 
I am sure the situation is far far different for those that play No Limit cash games live, but I am convinced that these changes and this new approach is going to lead to vastly different results and I am starting to record those results from a fresh perspective beginning Sunday. From April 18th to May 14th exactly $190 was earned during that span of time. That $190 is the starting bankroll for the new approach. Another thing that will be done or should I say will not be done is that I will not put any tournaments at all into this mix this will be for cash games only and I will no longer be mixing in limit games. A bankroll of 19 buyins is sketchy at best and I do have a back-up plan if things go bad. If this bankroll drops to $100 I will have no choice but to switch back to grinding the $1 and $2 MTTs until I can get it back to $200 and then try the cash games again, but hopefully starting tomorrow with 19 buyins will be sufficient.  

Well since it's after 3 a.m. I better get some sleep. I would like to be on the tables by noon if I can and run a 12 hour session . Monday is going to be a short session and I might be taking Monday and Tuesday off completely as I have to go for a breathing test over at Valley Hospital at around 2 p.m.  Not my idea of a great time and I would rather be playing poker, but never let it be said that I'm not doing everything I can to keep my ass out of the hospital again for an extended stay. Until next time take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

6 comments:

  1. Maybe give Bovada a shot? Tony seems to be doing well on there or was before having a meltdown.

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  2. you can't just delete your stats just because you are not winning and don't like what they say, you are removing your sample size and manipulating your results.
    What are your other dreams and aspirations besides poker? and what is your movie top 5?

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  3. I disagree Claude. I did not do a reset because of losses I did it because I am hitting the tables with a complete new cash game approach and if I mixed all the results from the two different strategies the final totals would not truly represent the correct earn rate overall. My last entry recorded the results, 15,000 hands roughly and approximately $30 in losses total with about $35 in profits at $20NL, but $65 in losses at S10NL.

    I am not a big movie person at all and any movies I would list would not be newer. I'm a huge Star Trek, Harrison Ford, Sandra Bullock, and Nicolas Cage fan.

    As for other dreams well I hate to give my haters more ammunition, but something I have always dreamed about was being the first person to decode the language of dolphins. I want to one day swim with those majestic creatures, but not in some Sea World tank, I mean in the wild out on the open ocean. I have interests in paleontology, archaeology and anthropology and would love to some day explore a never before explored archaeological site



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    1. FD, if you accept the idea that a serious poker player should continuously study, improve and adjust his game, and that the game conditions may change over time, then you will never be able to collect any meaningful stats.

      The adjustments you are talking about, I don't think they are (or should be) that major if you are already a TAG type player. I don't know how many times you have reset your stats since the blog begun, but seriously it has been done so often that, you may as well not show any stats. Sorry if this seems a bit blunt, but I think it is worth thinking about what is the purpose of the showing the stats and keep changing them.

      GL as usual.

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  4. FD at the 10nl tables you have to open up your starting hand range, you might be better off playing 1 or 2 25nl tables instead of 4 10nl.

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  5. Wow bro, you got away from the scum finally nice one! What's the new place like? Why don't you take some pics of your new crib for us followers?

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