Monday, June 27, 2016

A Definite Earn Rate Discrepancy

When referring to the cash game grind G1 would refer to the just over 50,000 hands I played back in December and January and G2 would refer to the current cash game grind I have been on since June 9th. There is a definite discrepancy between the earn rates of the two. G1 produced $450 in earnings in approximately 52,000 hands. Closing out the action from 2 days ago as I did not play at all yesterday G2 has produced earnings of $170.91 in 23,000 hands. The earn rate  comparison between G1 and G2 is roughly 8.7bb/100 compared to G2 of 7.3bb/100 approximately a 1.5 big blinds per 100 hands difference. It might be a larger discrepancy than that because when I ended G1 back in January I was going through a bit of a downswing at the time so that 8.7bb/100 could actually be somewhat low because knowing how poker goes I would have overcome that downswing and reverted back to positive variance. If I had continued on at the time my estimate would be that G1 would have been somewhere in the neighborhood of 9.0-9.5bb/100 which means I am off approximately 2 full big blinds for every 100 hands off.  Now the question is why. 

There have been changes I made between G1 and G2 and now the mission is to find out what changes have reduced that earn rate and I think I might be on the right track for getting this answer.
This time around I seriously increased the aggression  of playing of pocket pairs, small, mid, and large you name it, and I've come to the conclusion  that that may not be the best course of action. It amazes me  but there are times where a less aggressive approach with certain hands are in order and I have always been one of those people that believes aggression wins, but looking at the difference in numbers and knowing the different ways I have been approaching the pocket pairs  during G2 as opposed to G1 it has become evident to me  that it's not just aggression that wins but it's tempered aggression.

I had also adjusted the playing of suited connectors actually limping in with them  especially in early position and had completely tossed them out in early position and middle position if no one had entered the pot.  A lot of times in middle position I was open raising them and recalling my approach during G1 I wasn't doing that, I was limping in with them even in early position to try to get a cheap flop and the same with middle position and again I think, like the pocket pairs, this is a case where I replaced tempered aggression with full on aggression and now I need to revert back to the latter.
The aspect of late positional raises will not change because I see this works so often where I punish the limpers or simply take down the dead money right then and there. One improvement I have made from G1 to G2 is I raise a lot more in the blinds now. Previously hands like KQ, KJs and even AQ, and AK in the small blind and big blind would have simply been completed or checked, but I have realize that hands like this when you have limpers is a must raise even in the blinds, out of position, if for no other reason that since nobody has shown any sign of strength, and unless you have information on them to the contrary, that you most likely have the best hand and what better reason is there to raise than raising for value.  I also decided to tighten things up just a bit. I had been given the advice to open up the range somewhat and I had done so, but I'm not completely comfortable with it so I have reverted back to a slight tightening of the starting hand selection. 

I implemented these changes 3 days ago in the short session where I played a little over 700 hands and ended up making $20 and tonight's 1730 hand session where table earnings were just over $40. I know I cannot be result-oriented, but just taking those two sessions alone the earn rate is sky-high, if we assume 2500 hands were played and I know it was a little less than that, but even based on that the earn rate for the two sessions is 24bb/100, completely unsustainable of course but a massive Improvement over the previous 21,000 hands and even more importantly I find myself playing a more comfortable form of poker. I know there will be some that will disagree with these changes, but if they end up increasing the earn rate then I'm going to know I'm absolutely correct.
I won't be able to make any determinations for the month of June it will be in July that I will have to see exactly how things go. I plan on starting the statistics on the right side of the blog fresh for the month of July however several of my readers feel it's a mistake to delete what I already have so therefore I will save these in a secondary page on the blog so that I can refer to them at any time, but if I am going to play the entire month of July in much the same manner that I approached things the last 2 sessions, I want to see if there is going to be a significant difference. Unfortunately I have mixed the statistics, but before I reverted back to the way I was playing the earn rate was 7.3 and so all I can do is see if the play of July is higher than 7.3 and if it is I know I'm right on target.
I mean have discovered a small leak in my game and I want and welcome in Port. I'm going to show you the hand and at the end of this blog I am going to tell you what the result was so make your opinions before you get to the last sentence of the blog.

The setup is I raise preflop with the AQs and ArchAngel calls and then we get squeezed with a 3 bet. I'm not thrilled to call the 3 bet with AQs as so often in these situations I am up against AK or even better, but  I make the call as does the other person that called my initial raise. You can see what the flop was in the funny thing was this got checked around. This surprised me with WhiteBoy betting 3 preflop and with position on us the last thing in the world I expected was a check from him.  As you can see the turn gives me the Royal draw so I'm sitting here on 12 outs now here's the problem and this may be the leak I discovered. You'll notice I fire out, and with the King over card on the board and up against two opponents that may not have been the brightest move in the world.  Perhaps I should have simply checked, but as you can see ArchAngel calls and the three bettor raises and not such a little raise. What are you going to do here. I figure I'm sitting on 12 outs 2.8-1 going to the river.  Costing me $6.34 to call and getting 2.5-1,but the kew question here is ArchAngel.  If he too calls or even goes all-in then mathmatically this is a correct call on my part,but am I looking at some couterfeited outs here and if so how many?? I made the call, archangel folded and the result is listed below in the final paragraph of this entry.  No matter whether I won this hand or lost it the question I am asking myself is whether or not this is a leak in my game?  It is highly resembling the KTs hand, approximately the same amount of outs and for the 2nd time have I let a large number of outs and obviously a large pot entice me into a call that may not have been correct?  Thoughts and opinions.

Well that's going to wrap things up. Bankroll up past $418. Another $82 to go to try another shot at $20NL. I must admit part of me wants to run two tables of it tomorrow utilizing a one or two buyin stop loss, but I know that is not the correct thing to do and I need to give myself at least a $100 stop loss before dropping levels and besides if I have to drop levels out at $20NL again I want it to be with 40 buyins still in the bankroll for the $10 tables.  As for the hand I posted I completely missed, river was a blank, we ended up checking that river and the preflop 3 bettor showed AK and I lost pretty much a full stack. Until next time take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

1 comment:

  1. I wouldn't put too much stock into the difference between G2 and G1 because 23000 hands is not that big a sample, and the difference of 1.5 BB over that sample size is probably well below statistical significance.

    The AQ hand, I know it is hard to fold a RF draw, but yeah the price is wrong I rather u do a check raise allin here than calling off most of your stack.