Friday, June 24, 2016

Moderate Hit To The Bankroll

Well I made it past the $400 Mark but it did not last long unfortunately. I played some $20 no-limit yesterday when I hit $405 and ended up making only $0.66 off those tables. I enterd today with that same $405 balance and immediately almost from the start was getting slammed left and right so bad that I was down $48 before I knew what hit me this increased to down $71 which increased to down $85. I ended up losing just over 2 buyins at the $20 tables today and unfortunately I'm going to have to cut back to all $10 tables which means more unfortunately I'm going to have to look at those irritating red numbers on the right side of my blog in the $20 no-limit stats. I hate red numbers, I hate saying the words red numbers, but they are what they are and they are going to be there for quite some time because I decided to adjust my plan as far as monetary amounts goes.

I waited until I was over $400 before I fired up the $20 tables and I realize almost immediately that I don't want to play just one $20 table I want to have two $20 tables and two $10 tables going, but since 40 buyins is my comfort zone and since I am playing double stakes when just hitting 40 buyins at the $10 tables I'm thinking that's what I need to do is wait until I have $500 instead of $400, then once that is achieved I can play $10 and $20 tables two of each. The stop loss being $100 not just at $20NL but a combination of all tables and basically if I fall back down to $400 I would still have 40 buyins for 4 tabling $10NL and then just grind $10 tables only until I got back to $500 again.
Today was hurtful no doubt about it. The immediate somewhat heavy losses were pretty much obtained when I had three instances where I was the unfortunate victim of set over set and another instance where I had no choice but to fold the set of aces I got on the river when the board was showing not only 4 to an open-ended straight but 4 to a flush at the same time. Yeah that's just thrilling to see. I ended up with an ending bankroll of $343 and that included $2 in rake back for today so the actual table losses were down $64 again $44 of that at $20NL and obviously the other $20 at $10NL so essentially a 2 buyin loss at each stake. It is a moderate setback and I will have to grind winnings at the $10 tables of approximately $160 since I have decided to wait for the $500 account balance amount before I hit the $20 tables again, but not a major major issue. Tomorrow I will clear a second $10 bonus so no matter what happens during the session at least that's $10 that I know I've got guaranteed coming to me as I only need about 20 points to complete that and on a full session I averaged approximately 35 points.

My friend Joseph aka ManInBlack and I were talking on the phone today and he had said something along the lines that he was concerned that since the balance had hit $400 that I might be tempted to do a withdraw and perhaps go out and have some fun, go hit a $2/$4 table or what not and I have to be honest as I was sitting on $405 today every fiber of my being wanted to do just that. I wanted to grab $200 and go out and play some live limit, I wanted to do that so bad I could taste it, but the only thing stopping me is all those withdrawals done previously, looking at those learning from past mistakes and knowing I need to continue the grind, continue to build the bankroll in order to get anywhere but I have to admit the the temptation is extremely present and I am fighting it off with every fiber of my being.

Out of the $64 in losses today I may have made a $20 mistake at the $20 tables.  I'm not sure so I will give you the rundown and you may comment on it as you see fit. It was an instance where I was in middle position and had to KTs. I raised with the hand and then faced a positional 3 Bet two players to my left. It was a small 3 bet and I decided to make the call. Now right then and there that could be considered a mistake calling the three bet no matter how small it was with a KTs but nonetheless I did so. I ended up flopping a top pair of tens with my king kicker and a backdoor flush draw. My three betting opponent fired out about a three-quarter continuation bet on that flop which was in the $3 to $4 range closeer to $4 I believe it was and I elected to call. I made the call for multiple reasons. One, I had top pair and he could have easily have been three betting with a AK or AQ for that matter but also so many times in these situations it has been my experience that if you do call even when they have 3 bet preflop you will get a check on the turn.  It does not always happens but it happens quite often. The turn card was a card that gave me the flush draw so I am now sitting there with a pair of tens with a king kicker and the 2nd nut flush draw. My opponent went all-in for the final $12 or so and we begin the hand with roughly equal stacks so it would cost me the rest of my chips to make the call. At this point I'm completely putting him on a large pair whether it was AA, KK, QQ, or JJ, is pretty much anybody's guess, but I was convinced it was one of those four hands. Assuming I'm correct and he has anything except KK then I have 14 outs going to the River. Three Kings, 2 tens, and any one of nine spades. The question is is 14 hours enough to call that all in and I felt it was. I miss the river, lost a stack in the situation, and then had second thoughts of whether or not I had made an incorrect decision or not. If if I had made an incorrect decision it was definitely either preflop or the turn because there's no way in the world I can see my calling the flop being incorrect. Ad it turned out I was correct about his holdings being a large pair unfortunately for me, although it didn't really matter since the river was a complete blank, but he did have KK which did in fact take three of my of my outs away, but of course I had no way of knowing that for certain. With all that said was a mistake made and if so where was it made?

About the hand that I posted the other day the T8s hand I wanted to reveal the results of what happened. It was a hand where I was trying to figure what my implied odds were. I got a couple of replies to that including Kat Martin who said that I was not getting the proper implied odds on the hand. As a reminder as to what the situation was here you are. 






I'm still not quite certain why Kat seems to think I am not getting the correct implied odds when we consider that if I do hit I will get this players stack and I know this because I have much experience with this particularly overly aggressive player. To me there is maybe 1 chance in 10 he does not stack off here. Although getting the 4-1 may only be a break even in this situation since I already had money invested I cannot see not calling when getting 4-1 implied odds here. The results of the hand was I did call the turn bet, hit my flush on the river and my opponent as suspected stacked off on it. As it turned out my I was convinced that my opponent has two pair kings and queens in that situation, but as it turned out I was incorrect on that as he had flopped a set. Perhaps Kat Martin when he told me I was not getting the appropriate implied odds on the situation was considering a flopped set whereas I was not and thus as it turned out a couple of my outs were indeed counterfeited and under those circumstances 4-1 was not the appropriate odds, however I was fortunate and this one did work out for me.

That's going to wrap things up. It is a setback to the bankroll, but of course not something that I cannot overcome. I go into tomorrow still with 34 buyins and I'm not even having thoughts of switching off the plan at this point. I am seeing many many signs of success on this cash game grind and setbacks notwithstanding, I will continue to grind on. I did opt in for the fixed-limit leaderboard and was considering playing some $0.50/$1 seven card stud Hi-Lo in an effort to get some bonus money that way but when I looked at the leaderboard apparently a lot more people are taking part in this now than they did a couple of months ago as they're only paying out the top 10 and just to get to the top ten you would need a couple of hundred APOs so I'm not even going to bother with that, I'm simply going to stick with the No Limit cash games however tomorrow it will be back to four tables of $10NL for the foreseeable future. Until next time take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

9 comments:

  1. Re: the T8s hand, I took the range you put him on of 2-pair and sets, threw out K6, K2 and 62 cos he would fold them pre, threw out KK cos he would 3-bet pre, put that range on equilab against your T8ss and pressed the button. Your equity was well short of break-even. It'd be a good exercise to do the same with the KTs hand and your river call.

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    1. I think it’s probably like 20%

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    2. The nice thing about modern poker is that we can simply throw our hand versus our opponent's range on an equity simulator and not have to think at all. As to FD's question about mistakes in this hand, KTs plays really badly against a 3-bet 100BB deep.

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  2. I find your blog difficult to read on the new background. Maybe ask if others do...

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    1. This is true on mobile. On desktop it has a white background behind the text so it’s fine. The font is MUCH better, though.

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  3. Question....on the hand where you rivered a set of aces and had to fold. If I'm reading correctly, you say there was 4 to an open ended straight on the board...but that's not possible with an ace on the board is it? Or am I misunderstanding s? Just trying to figure it out.

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    1. Ok, I reread that part. There must have been 4 to the open ended straight before the river, since the A was the river card? So if that's the case, why stay to the river? Just trying to understand your thinking there.

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  4. Kat: i did feel if there was an error made with the KTs it was in fact calling the 3 bet preflop. Should have let it go right then and there.

    Cokeboy: Standard AA hand. I raise preflop get a couple of callers. Flop 568 all spades neither of my ace is a spade,but I'm firing a c-bet. One folds one calls. Turn is the 7 of spades. I mutter a few choice curse words, I have position, my opponent checks the turn and I am certainly not double barreling here. River is an ace, non spade, giving me a set. Opponent fires large on the river pot size if I remember correctly. There are a hundred ways I am beat here. Fold button where are you, so I let it go.

    Coach: Switched out the background with one of the nighttime Vegas Strip. Hoping the darker background evens the optical effect a little better.

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    1. Ok that makes sense on the AA hand. My fault for mis-reading originally. Terrible board for Aces there.

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