Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Farewell To Thee

I played my last No Limit cash game today and unfortunately I have to say that it is not profitable enough for me to continue. I've heard time and time again that you need a significant sample size of hands to know whether or not one form or another of Poker is profitable and I've always heard that sample size to be at least fifty thousand hands. I have played in excess of 67,000 hands since June 9th and my earn rate is 1.5bb/100. Obviously this is not the road I'm supposed to be on. I always knew that grinding No Limit cash Games Live was not something I wanted to do, but I thought that doing it online would be a good spot to build up to the necessary bankroll for my plans, but obviously I was wrong.

Unfortunately I don't seem to have anywhere else to turn.  WSOP offers mostly rebuy tournaments and my ITM percentage in those is hideous. Other than that my choices are $1, $2, and $20 tournaments.  With the bank roll dropping below $440 I am obviously not rolled the $20 tournaments and as for the $1 and $2 ones even at a 30% ROI the best I could hopefully average in earnings per day is about $5. It looks like it may be time to close out the WSOP account. Obviously there's no sense in continuing what I've been playing because considering the time that I put in it's just not worth it and if I put in less time think about how much longer any goals that I set would take. No matter how you slice it, no limit cash games are just not meant for me.  This may also be the end of this blog. If I have nowhere to go in poker, nothing to play, there's not going to be much to write about. 

The only other option I see is attempting to play $2/$4 a lot earlier than anticipated. I have $236 online, another $200 offline, a new credit card with a $500 balance on its way which I could turn into $500 in cash without paying the higher interest rates of a cash advance, and I can add another $165 to that. In total I would be looking at almost $1,100 for a  starting bankroll at the $2/$4 live limit tables. Other than that I see no other possibilities and let's face it that possibility in itself may not exactly be the best way to go. Under rolled and a $500 credit card debt to get started. Unfortunately it might be the only option left.

It is a sad day for me because I really thought this would work but the volume put in along with the earn rate tells me otherwise. I'm out of ideas , but I'm not doing anything just yet I'm hoping something comes to me, something I haven't thought of yet, but I think I've thought of everything. No limit cash online the earn rate is not good enough, limit games online are non existent, SNGs have no resemblance of regularity, and MTTs well that's already been touched upon earlier in this entry and when it comes to online poker those are all the options available.

It is with a heavy heart and sadness that I bid you farewell.  If any other option comes to mind I will definitely be writing about it in this blog, but as for right now I just don't see any viable future. Take Care everyone..... be well.

15 comments:

  1. Although I get a strong feeling that you will once again change courses as you have done in the past, I hope you develop a more realistic strategy in the future. Playing thousands of hands for peanuts is no way to enjoy life.

    You still have the benefit of being in the biggest, greatest fish ponds in the world. If you have any poker skills at all, grinding $1/2 NL live would be better than anything you have attempted. But ...you'd need to save for enough of a bankroll to get started.

    Please prove me wrong and don't go back to spending all day playing online just to earn enough for a meal at McDonald's. Look at all the hours you spent playing poker. Multiply that times the minimum wage of $8.25/hour to get a real feel for how you've been spending your time.

    A lot of success in life is based on making a good plan, and then executing it. Time to make a change in a positive direction. Best wishes!

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  2. I have taken many undercapitalized shots at big games. I play my ass off and I have always had a bankroll for the last 24 years. Play against people you can beat and know that there will be variance. I played 1-2, 2-4, 3-6, 4-8, 5-10, 6-12, 8-16, 9-18, 10-20, 15-30, 20-40, 30-60, 100-200, and 300-600 limit holdem along the way. I sit in the game I feel I can beat. I can beat small no limit games, but I do not need to play against good players. There are games you can beat in Vegas almost every weekend. GOOD LUCK!

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  3. Lightning some people are not NL people. Hell FlushhDraw is like me in that way. We both hate NL with a passion. Plus on his $1000+ bankroll that is at best 3-4 buyins at a $1-2NL table. clearly not enough of a bankroll. Also you use the $8.25 job anology. He is unable to stand due to health issues so that is impossible as well. As with life we have to adjust plans. Yes he is doing it way more then even i would like but it is his life and his choices. I disagree with his current plan but have faith in him that he will find his path

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    1. curious to know what ur plan is for him to be in much better shape.

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  4. Play less, study more, and your win rate will go up. The conventional view is 50k hands to tell what your win rate is, but this is the minimum number. At 67000 hands, there is decent data to indicate you are a winning player, but probably not that accurate what that win rate is. What is your overall winrate from WSOP 10nl starting from the beginning? Didn't you have something close to 10bb/100 last year?

    I think there is something fundamental that leads to your conclusion grinding NL cash online is not for you, and a couple of weeks ago that you can simply step up in limits and be a winning play at each level. This can only be true if you think you are at the top of your game and there is no more to improve. This is obviously not true.

    Try playing less time, and spend at least an hour or two each day to study. You will be less tired, you will get better much quicker, your winrate will go up and your variance will go down. If you really can scrape together $1100 as a bankroll, well then you can play 20nl for higher profit. The game isn't going to be that different than 10nl.

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    1. I been saying this also. I was able to get him down from 14 hr days to 12 but he refuses any shorter

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    2. The flipside of our own ability at the game is the quality of the opposition. At WSOPcom at the moment there are 3 10NL games and 1 20NL playing between 32% and 37% to the flop. They are loose enough to be profitable. However, over the course of a 12 hour session, there will be times when the games are dreadful. I noticed a couple yesterday evening playing in the teens. Games like that are nothing more than a rake trap. Anyone who attempts to grind WSOP based on hours/day is going to play a fair chunk of that time in games that they cannot beat.

      Now we all wish this wasn't the case, and many of us including me yearn for the days when LHE was the game of choice, but to survive we have to deal with the world as it is. So one can hate NL cash "with a passion" and one can "despise" (I believe was Flush's word) rebuy tournaments, but when all the fish are playing live NL cash and rebuy tournaments offer better structures and lower rake... Well if you want to play poker for profit you get in the good games.

      And as Lightning says, anyone living in Vegas has access to great low-limit NL cash games pretty much 24/7.

      Clearly none of this is any of my damn business, but... Flush has played a lot of NLHE tournaments. I assume this means he is good at playing a short-stack and knows his push-fold ranges. Why not short-stack live NL cash in rooms with promos? You cap your potential win-rate but you can attempt this on a thin roll and over time things like freerolls basically add in a stable base income. It's not glamorous, but neither is sitting in front of a computer 12-14 hours/day.

      Finally, let me reiterate Pokerdogg's point. Our win-rate isn't something intrinsic given at birth. We improve it with study.

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  5. Thanks for allowing us in on your journey. If I were in LV and had a BR of 1k, I would go to the Orleans or see if TI will spread a 2/4 game. Granted the rake/jackpot drop will be $5 max per hand you could theoretically build a roll. Play super super tight (Top 5-10% hands) TI offers $600/wk if you play 60 hrs plus another $120 in comps IF they can get a game going. Orleans pays out high hands over the weekends at $300/hr 150/100/50 plus other promos. You could even mix it up at the 2/4,flamingo game, jump in a free roll and look for a big score. Hang in there as it WILL get better. #LimitHoldemGuy

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    1. the rake is $3 orleans. $3+3 jackpot in TI, meaning $6 taken out on $30 pot. horrible.

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  6. May not be done yet. A little research and study may have proven very valuable into the wee hours of the morning last night. Only way to find out is to test it in combat as they say.

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  7. theres much better games in almost every city but vegas. one problem, not all of these other cities go 24 hours. and there much better online action in bovada, much wider choice of games. $1 500 chip hypers go off in every few minutes. same with bigger sngs.

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  8. You only live once dude, play what you want wether its NL20 online or 2/4 limit on the strip.

    But broseph, there is a reason why not everyone playing limit is at high stakes, it's not as easy as you think. Maybe you should think about 2/4 and beating the rake than going toe to toe with phillis ivey at the high stakes poker we can think about that when you get to 10-20 LOL !

    And if you think NLH is easy because $200, $300, or $500 dollars into the middle to prevent others from seeing what they're doing, but it only comes in one single bet at a time. Well then you should take note of your bb/100 winrate at no limit of texas in hold.

    I am sure whatever kitchen cutlery in the road you take you will succeed! GL BRO! !

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  9. FlushD, thanks for letting us into your poker world. I congratulate you for sticking with the plan for so long. It was fun to read your posts but I'm sure it was very hard to put in all those hours. I have three suggestions for you. First, forget poker and focus on your health and other hobbies. Second, take the $400 if you don't need it and play with it on Bovada. Tony seems to do much better there. And third option would be to move to Canada and play online on Stars (I know it's a crazy suggestion).

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  10. Not done yet. New blog post upcoming. Surrender not an option.

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