Friday, July 1, 2016

The Drive For Five / June Report And July Goals

It was looking like the last 3 days of June we're going to be a stretch of break-even variance or possibly worse.  Sessions on the 28th and 29th covering a little over 3,400 hands for table earnings of $2.64. Daily rakeback and the clearance of a $10 increment of the reload bonus added a few dollars to that. This was no real surprise for the two sessions before that I had to earned $70 total running at 24bb/100 which is totally unsustainable and was not surprised by the happenings of the next two days. On both days I started out in a hole which I had to dig myself out of and was able to by the time the sessions ended. Going into the 30th I expected to endure the same sort of early struggle and was just hoping it could be at least a break-even session rather than a loss.

The final day of the month however proved to be completely opposite as unlike the previous two days I started out in the positive almost immediately up a little over a buy-in before I even had 100 hands played. Sometimes the poker gods are for you and sometimes they're not and today they were definitely for me as I ended up playing 1277 hands earning $47.47 plus a dollar in daily rakeback. Without a doubt the key hand of the day was where me and my opponent had approximately $15 on the table as we had both worked our stacks up a bit and we were all in on the turn when I had flopped a set of twos and he had flopped a set of fours. At that point I was up about $21 and as soon as I saw his set of fours I knew three quarters of that profit was going right out the window, but the last thing in the world I expected was hitting a 1 outer on the river giving me quads. Were it not for that hand this $47 session would have been still a winner but only $17 so I feel very fortunate it turned out the way it did naturally.

June was a great month as far as I'm concerned where total earnings were $286. Bonuses contributed $30 of this and I think another $50 at least came from the daily rakeback but I'll have the exact numbers in a day or two when I get an account statement. June 1st to June 8th I was still flip-flopping back and forth between cash games and tournaments and cash games and tournaments, but on the 9th of June was when I basically got my head out of my ass, realized that cash games was what I had to stay at no matter how bad it got, although I was prepared with a contingency plan, and from June 9th through June 30th I ended up playing 29,683 hands with earnings of $261.82 with an earn rate of 8.8bb/100 at $10NL. I ended up losing just shy of two buyins at $20NL, 848 hands and losses of ($38.86) On one of those days I also played 88 hands of $0.50/$1 Stud8 for a total profit of $2.34. That stud game was in no way looking to make any sort of money I was basically playing it just for the APP points that I could get from it. 

The drive for five is the drive towards a $500 bankroll. $500 is the magic number where it will allow me to step up in stakes. Slowly at first and I would run 2 tables of $20NL and 2 tables of $10NL with a $100 stop loss. If that $500 were to drop to $400 then it is back down to 4 tables of $10NL.  Four tables of $20NL will be allowed when I have both a $600+ bankroll and I have won 5 buy-ins at $20NL.  If both these conditions are not met I will run two and two, but even if both these conditions are met, I've noticed on WSOP that the $20 tables do not always have 4 tables available in fact many times from the times I've looked and noticed they only have 2 available so I very well may be only running two and two. No matter how you look at it 25 buyins is the goal for the initial step up.  As for $50NL that would start when I have 25 buyins for that level which would be $1,250 but that is a ways off in the future. Possibly August, but I certainly don't see that happening in July.  As stated earlier I had played some $20NL in June and had done so when the bankroll head reached $400 but after doing so I realized that the $500 number puts me more in a comfort zone. Going into tomorrow I have $14 to go to hit that $500 mark.

Tomorrow should be a full session, 11 hours, and close to if not exceeding 2000 hands. Ended the session early today because I forgot to take a caffeine pill that I pretty much now need on a daily basis if I want to meet my volume expectation and goals, but I forgot to take it today and by 7:30 I was yawning my head off.  Not tired enough to go to sleep as I am writing this entry at 125am., but I've played this game long enough to know when you startyawning you better damn well get away from those cards and away from the table and that's exactly what I did. It is vital, if I want to get my volume goal completed each time I play, I need to take a caffeine pill two or three hours after I start the session so around 3 p.m. that will get me through the rest of the night.
The July goals are pretty simple, grind, grind, grind. My goals for July specifically are as follows.
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Hands:  40,000
$10NL Earn Rate:  8bb/100
$20NL Earn Rate:  6bb/100
Table Earnings:  $320
Rakeback:  $30
Bonuses:  $60

These goals are based on $10NL only. While it is true I am very close to $20NL I could fall into some negative variance or even a full-fledged downswing beginning tomorrow so I cannot assume anything except the level that I am currently playing. If I am able to get into $20NL and am able to be successful then I will surpass my goals so the goals that I have listed above are what I feel to be the minimum expectation for July.

As the bankroll approached the $500 mark I am starting to wonder just when I should start withdrawing some of the money and holding it aside or better yet storing it in a safety deposit box in the form of cash or poker chips.  Ever since Black Friday I have been concerned about keeping money online and while WSOP is a US regulated poker site the threats that legislation could be passed reversing this, hackers, and any number of things could happen that I don't want to keep more than a few hundred on there at any one time. It may sound just a touch paranoid, but better safe than sorry.  I think many of the Full Tilt players back then would agree with this sentiment.

The recent adjustments that I made to my game resulted in an increase in the earn rate of 1.5bb /100 over the course of approximately 8000 hands played.  I will continue along this path for July as the 8000 hands is too few to make any determination but since the goal for July is 40,000 that should give me a far better indication. If my earn rate for July is above 7.3 then the adjustments were the correct ones. That's going to be a wrap up for now. Ready to start off July hopefully on a positive note. Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

4 comments:

  1. Hitting one-outers is the best possible adjustment... :) I can read this again on mobile now. Have a great 4th!

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  2. as soon as I saw his set of fours I knew three quarters of that profit was going right out the window, but the last thing in the world I expected was hitting a 1 outer on the river

    Unless the board might have a flush/straight, I'm never getting away from a set. Bad luck he had a higher set, good luck on the river. Good month!

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  3. Well done again! I think your money is safe and the WSOP reputation is good. But, if you believe it is best to store it offline, so be it.

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  4. Stop being such a defeatist. Leave your money there. The moment you withdraw you will start spending thru it a lil at a time,

    ReplyDelete