Wednesday, August 31, 2016

Comment Responses

Pokerdogg said in part:  

I am shocked at your results. I thought that you are a winning cash game player even though you have not been winning as much as last year, how could this be true? All along I thought you are capable of winning at ~10bb/100 at 10NL,  A 10bb/100 win rate at 2000 hands/day, 20 days/month, would have made $3200 since January. What do you think is the reason you didn't achieve that?

You're shocked??  I've gone beyond shocked to astonished, appalled, and dismayed.  Never in my wildest imagination did I think I was losing this year, but I chalk that up to not paying closer attention to the different stretches of downswings and because of not much of a bankroll amount change  due to the bonuses and rakeback. 

You asked me why I didn't achieve success in my cash game attempt and the short answer is because I'm not good at it, but the slightly longer answer is that I've had two people indicate that my thinking is more along the lines of tournament thinking and it's what comes to me naturally. Once was a discussion with my friend Michelle and the other time was when I made a comment on Rob's blog. In each case they both felt that my thought process on the particular subject we were discussing, or in Rob's case I was commenting on his blog, but in both cases they felt that my thoughts and opinions indicated and inherent tournament strategy mindset.

He also said in part: 

Speaking of data, to get a complete picture, how many hands of cash games did you play this year at each stake, win/loss for each, total buyins for tourny so that we can calculate ROI, what buyins. Same things for last year. What did you earn from bonuses, and how much would you have earned just playing tourneys.  Without a complete picture, it just appears to be selective reporting to support your latest decision. Not saying you are doing this intentionally, we all have selection biases by nature, you need to look at everything if you want to make the best decision. 

I did not keep a total accurate count of the cash game play in 2016, but I do know beyond a shadow of a doubt it is in excess of 100,000 hands played and probably closer to 150,000 well beyond the point of the sample size being considered too small and also at a point where one can realize if they are winning player or not.

Tournaments on the other hand there is no question about it. The website PokerProLabs tracks every single tournament played and for 2016, as of the completion of play on August 30th, this year I have 448 multi-table tournaments played with buyins ranging from $1 to $25.  Earnings over the course of this time are just over $993 with a 53.86% ROI. Out of 448 tournaments I have made 120 final tables and out of those 120 final tables I have 39 top 3 finishes. Now you have to take that 120 number with a grain of salt because a final table is counted as a final table so even if a tournament only has 24 players and I made it to the final 9 they consider that a final table finish so take that for what it's worth, but ($360) in losses at Cash games compared to over $993 in tournament earnings, you have to be a blind man not to see what is blatantly obvious and finally at least, my eyes are wide open and maybe for the first time in 8 months I'm actually seeing things clearly. There's been a lot of confusion over the last 8 months and that explains much of the flipping back and forth between the two venues of Poker I am convinced of this. Something kept drawing me back to tournaments but then I would recall how many people were saying cash games is the way for consistent money so I would go back and I would end up going back to tournaments and this repeated over and over and over again. I can guarantee you that action and behavior will not be repeated.

Seattleirish said in part:

You've run into issues when making "I will never..." statements in the past. 
"I am a full-time tournament poker player and I will say this here and now, if I ever play another no limit cash game hand online I will quit poker..."
I'm not sure why you continue to state things so definitively as to leave yourself no room to change your mind in the future without having past declarations thrown in your face. Of course, you can choose to shrug it off when people do so, but you do seem to paint yourself, unnecessarily, into corners.

You know SI ordinarily I would say you are absolutely correct and completely On Target but in this case I think the definite declarations are extraordinarily important. I know me and I tend to be somewhat of a stubborn individual and I don't like accepting defeat, but on the same token it makes no sense to try and keep beating this dead horse namely cash games. I purposely put that particular sentence about staying with tournaments or quitting poker so that it would be out there for all to see because instead of coming to a point where I start saying you know I'll bet if I improved this part and this part of my game I am sure I could make a profit doing that I don't want to go back and forth anymore and want to stick to what I love doing, what makes me money, and quite frankly what I came to Las Vegas to do in the first place just over a year ago. I am a tournament player, I always have been and for whatever reason I tried to step away from that and become something else, something I'm not. Tournaments are ingrained within me and it's what I've been doing for 12 years. I hate to even suggest the saying you can't teach an old dog new tricks especially being middle-aged myself, but why try to learn something new when what has always worked for me continues to. I also specifically in that statement put online cash games because there may be times where I get together with friends and we end up playing a cash game in a live setting just for fun and for that I would make an exception, but I am a tournament player, I love being a tournament player, and I'm going to be one till the day I die.


  1. Hi Flushdraw, I was shocked because I thought you had reported.around 10bb/100 winrate last year with a pretty good decent sample size last year, and I seem to remember something like 5bb/10 earlier this year. To go from that (a really good winning player) to the current conclusion that you are not a winning online cash game player, that is a big shift and deserves some analysis.

    In any case, if tourneys is your strength and what makes you happy, then of course you got to go for it. Best of luck.