Friday, August 19, 2016

Past The August Midway Point

First let's address a couple of recent comments.


Pokerdogg quoted me where I said:

"First off the short stacking idea. That is the last thing in the world that I want to do because quite honestly if I'm playing in a live setting, I do not want to run into an absolute monster be up against another absolute monster and lose large amounts of value to the tune of $200 or more because I was not sitting in with the maximum allowed which in most of the $1/$2 games in this town is $300."

And then he replied with the following:

There are a number of downsides to short stacking a live cash game, but this shouldn't be the one you worry about. Just think how much value you are losing by playing 10 or 20nl online instead of live cash. 50bb is short but not that short. It still allow you to play most hands you normally would play, maybe a bit tighter, but you can get more aggressive with your hands. Besides, once you double up a couple of times you will play with a big stack, you won't be playing short stacked all the time. In fact if you can play a short stack well, most of the time you won't stay short stacked.


Then xedx7 said in part:

IMO, you have a better chance of succeeding by short stacking than reaching $12k online playing 10 or 20NL.


My Response:

You both make valid points and I must admit there is a huge part of me that wants to play live, as you guys already know, and I would love to be able to utilize live play as part of my overall bankroll goals, but that poses a few questions. At what point should I incorporate live play into my plans meaning how much should I make sure I leave online. Should I make sure I leave enough online to grind 4 tables of $50NL??  If that were the case then I would have to make sure that $2,000 were available to me online in case the live play did not go well. That essentially would be 40 buyins for $50NL or perhaps 30 buyins would be sufficient since that is what  I am currently utilizing as the minimum which gives me the opportunity to play the $20 deepstacks for as long as the money holds out. 

Another question it would pose is how many buyins of $100 would I want to risk in a single live session??  Would I want to try a session of No Limit $100 buyins with at least 5 or 6?? If that were the case would I not be better off with 2 full buyins??  If I were buying into the live game with $100 at a time maybe the most I should risk would be 3 or 4 buyins. I just really have no idea on this and any thoughts you might have on this would most definitely be appreciated by those more experienced than I.

As far as August goes. We've passed the halfway point and there's been a slight change with the tournament 50% stake and also there has been a downswing in the cash games. If you recall I started out on a wicked heater with profits of $157 and since that high point I have dropped 9 buyins. Earnings at $10NL are only $67 with an earn rate of a paltry 4.0 and today's shortened session was a loss of less than $2 and that was after losing full Stacks with AA and KK and still only end up losing less than $2 so in some ways I consider that a victory.

50% of the tournament action that Man In Black took on this month has been changed. It started out with me playing the for $3 rebuys and I did decent enough going 6 for 22 in the money, but in the end results were only $10 in profit in those specific tournaments. A relative deep run in the $20 Midnight Madness helped things, but in the end we only ended up making between $38 so only $19 and change for each of us. We decided that we would change it up for the remainder of the month. This will provide potential larger profits with less cost and what's happening is I am only playing the $20 deepstack each day. Just one tournament a day but binking one of these could produce $500 all at once and since I'm only playing the one tournament only per day the cost is only $20 or $10 each per day. As long as I can get back on the right track with cash games I will have no problem risking $10 a day in this particular tournament but I need these cash games to turn around pretty quick. I ended the night with a bankroll of $411.99.

Playing only the $20 deepstack is what I am calling tournaments part 2 and if you click on August 2016 tab you will see that I so far I have gone 0 for 2 for a loss of ($40)  Hopefully I can have a very deep run in one of these soon not to mention getting the cash games to turn around. There was a withdrawal that was made this month and I would like to be able to say it was an emergency situation that needed to happen, but that would not be truthful. The fact of the matter is this withdrawal came when I got the urge to go play $2/$4 and get out for the day. I'm doing my best not to slip in my discipline when it comes to this and July I did very well same with June when I got my head together, but I did have a slight slip up in August so I just move on from this point and hopefully not have any more discipline slip-ups like this.

From now on any live games that I play well either being on the weekends games are no limit tournaments. I still would like to play the occasional $65 tournament at the Mirage with which pays 1 and 7 or the Golden Nugget which has what I considered one of the best tournaments structures in all of Las Vegas I'll be a 20-minute levels. I won't be playing cash games anytime soon as you saw in my commenter response at the beginning of this century I'm still unsure exactly how to approach that and and hopefully awaiting the advice from poker dog and xtex and anyone else that is experienced in this area. As far as getting out and playing a $65 tournament at Mirage or Golden Nugget or even better a Friday night tournament at The Orleans for a $125 buyin. I figure none of this can happen until I have a bankroll in excess of $800 in order to play a $65 tournament here and there and in excess of $1,000 to sneak in a $125 tournament.

I haven't really got much volume in the last few days as Monday night my body finally decided to crash from the 12 to 14 hours sessions and some days in excess of 1000 milligrams of caffeine. I got more sleep in 2 days and I have the last week, but starting tomorrow I'm going to be raring to go. I had an appointment with Paratransit this morning but I will get started by 2 p.m. tooday and put in a full session. In order to stop my body from having these crashes I need to cut back on the caffeine but the pain pills that the doctors have me on really wipes me out and I'm too stubborn to give up any of my volume so for now I'll just have to put up with it. The volume must be put in the grind must go on under any circumstances. However, I am going to try something new where I don't put myself on a strict start time and allow myself to sleep until I wake up naturally each day and simply play until I'm too tired to play any longer. My next day off from poker will be on the 26th so I will be grinding from now until then. Until next time take care everyone, I hope everyone is running well at the tables and in life itself, and I'll see you at the tables.


Goal:  $12,000
Total BR:  $411.99
Progress: 3.4%

 

3 comments:

  1. There are no hard and fast rules that I can recommend. I would look at this as taking shots to move to live game. If I were in your shoes, I would grind to $2k online, then take $1k of to take shots at live 1/2 nlhe games. I would set $200 as a daily stop loss. I think this is a reasonable balance of risk versus maximizing your winning potential. If you go bust, go back to grinding online with the $1k.

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    1. I agree on the $200 daily stop loss. I also expect that with patience you will see more bad plays live than you would online. Get to $3000 online and take $100 buy-ins live. All the best as always!

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  2. A math observation. $50 NL at WSOP is way tougher than live $1/2 and the bonuses are worse. One of the nasty consequences of a lower win-rate, which I'd expect you to have at $50 NL relative to live play, is that you need a much larger number of buy-ins to protect yourself against the more brutal downswings. As to what to buy in for live, since you've put in a lot of volume online buying in for 100BB, why not buy-in live for $200? It's the stack depth at which you have the most experience.

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