Sunday, August 14, 2016

Trying To Snap The Slump

First let me address some comments made on my last entry.

xedx7 said:  

Go for $4,000, buy-in for $100, and see what happens


KatMartin said in part:  

I agree 12k is unnecessarily conservative. 


Pokerdogg said in part:  

Take shots with 2k in a 1/2 game, buying in short $100 at a time. If I lose $1000, go back to grind online.


I wanted to address all three of these comments and I can pretty much do that pretty much at the same time. Both Xedx7 and Pokerdogg are of the opinion that short stacking with a short bankroll would be the best idea and Kat believes that $12k is being overly conservative. First off the short stacking idea. That is the last thing in the world that I want to do because quite honestly if I'm playing in a live setting, I do not want to run into an absolute monster be up against another absolute monster and lose large amounts of value to the tune of $200 or more because I was not sitting in with the maximum allowed which in most of the $1/$2 games in this town is $300. 

As far as giving it a shot and then going back to grinding again well yeah that is a possibility, but at the same time I do not want to find myself in the position of having to go back to online play. I've got the taste of live play on a somewhat steady basis on a couple of different occasions and when I have been forced to return to online play albeit last time it was due to circumstances beyond my control, but when I was forced to go back to online play it was such a letdown and a feeling of failure that this time when I start that live play I don't want it to end, I don't want to ever have to go back to the online grind because the disappointment that it puts is utterly overwhelming. There will be times that I will go back to the online play but it will be under special circumstances and completely voluntarily on my part. A prime example is reload bonuses. If I have a bankroll of thousands of dollars and all of a sudden WSOP is offering a 100% reload bonus up to $1,000 well it just seems to me that that would be utterly ridiculous not to go back to the online grind for a week or two or however long it would take to clear a bonus like that playing $50NL. Free cash is never a bad thing so it's under a circumstance like that I would temporarily return to the online grind and happily do so, but that is the only circumstance that I could think of in which I would want to do something like that.

As far as Kat Martin saying that $12k is overly conservative well, I guess one could say that, but I think it might be overly conservative by someone who easily replenish the bankroll, could easily find the money to keep on playing each payday and as you know that is not my situation. Also  this response to Kat Martin's comment coincides with the response that I gave to Pokerdogg and xedx7 a major part of it boils down to I don't want to have to go back to the online grind once I start playing these live cash games. The disappointment and sense of failure that it instills within me is almost overwhelming.

The $12k figure is based on 40 buyins which according to my research was standard for a full-time player. Now let's be honest about this I find it highly doubtful that I'm just going to grind up to $12k without ever taking shots at the live game here and there. I totally and completely see myself with $4,000 and then deciding to risk a few buyins on a live game. The fact of the matter is if I didn't do that I would be shocked but I am going to try to maintain the discipline not to do that too too often and simply grind up to the amount that I feel I need. You might think that 40 buyins is a little too much, but look at the swings that the Trooper goes through in his live game. live or online this game is filled with variance and I want to have that cushion that I feel I will need to not only play the live game successfully but not have to turn back.

There have been a couple of changes made. First off me and my tournament investor Joseph basically came up with this idea almost the exact same time. You know what they say great minds think alike or is that more along the lines of one degen knows another, but whichever it is we basically came up with this idea simultaneously. I ended up playing 22 of the $3 rebuy tournament and there was good and bad involved. I ended up going 6 for 22 which is an ITM percentage of 27.2%. In those 6 in the money finishes I hit the final table 5 times, but unfortunately I had no deep deep runs and within that 6 for 22 there was only $10.02 in earnings. During the course of this time I also played four the $20 Knockouts, never cashed, and only got one knocked out for a $10 return, and going into Friday I had played two of the $20 Midnight Madness tournaments and hit the final table in one and did not cash in the other. Now as far as the change goes. Since the rebuy tournaments each day have a total cost of just under $35 assuming that I make it to the add-on each time we came up with the idea that if I just played the $20 Deepstack at 4:45 p.m. and the $20 Midnight Madness, although it would be 2 less tournaments played per day, the cost for day would be relatively close, a difference of $5, and there would be a lot more potential money to be made doing this so that's what we decided to do. However, there's a but involved in all of this and that but has to do with the available bankroll.

The cash games obviously have to take the priority and I must make sure I have enough in the available bankroll to be able to grind the $10NL cash games. With that said I'm thinking in the range of a minimum of 25 buyins, so that means as long as I have around $250ish or more I can play these $20 tournaments. If the available balance falls below this the tournaments will have to be suspended temporarily until the available balance is in excess of $250 whether that be by grinding some cash game profits or getting a payment from my partner for his half of the current losses whichever the case may be, but we need above that $250 mark to grind these tournaments.  


The 3 Session Slump

After play was completed on Friday it also completed the third day of the downward variance slump that I am currently in. Started August off on fire with nearly 16 buyins earned at the $10NL cash games, but the previous three days going into today produced ($65) in losses at those cash games. Pretty much the whole story is the last few days my big pairs have been going down in flames however I've noticed since I have tightened up the starting hand requirements going into August, at least so far, I have seen and no huge swings within a single session. None of this $60 down and and of course I'm not seeing huge swings upward of $50 or $60 either, but it seems that I have found more stability however with less than 12,000 hands played the sample size is too small to make any absolute determinations. I've come to the realization, and this was also said to me by one of their regs on the WSOP site, that 100,000 hands is what is needed to make determinations about anything whether that be earn rates or success or failure or whatever. After the session lost last night of $17 and change that brought August earnings at $10NL to $89.23 in 11,687 hands with an earn rate of 7.6bb/100.  I personally believe my earn rate will be in the 7-8 big blinds per 100 hands played range, but until I have 100,000 hands recorded I am not even going to begin to make any predictions, but I am shooting for 7-8 as my personal goal. No matter how you look at it, slump notwithstanding, I am still up nearly nine buyins and that can't be considered bad by anybody's standards. Hopefully Saturday would be the day I would snap back out of this.

Since I am playing the $20 tournaments one not starting till midnight and one starting at 4:45 in the afternoon my schedule has changed where I don't get on the tables until about noon and I get off the tables when the Midnight Madness Tournament is completed. If I'm not playing in the Midnight Madness then I will grind from 12 to 12 if I am in the Midnight Madness I will grind from 12 to whenever the 12am tournament ends. Depending how deep I go that could create a grinding session of 15 or 16 hours which on the surface may sound a little excessive, but you have to remember during the course of that time I'm taking breaks, a half hour here, an hour there so it's not like it's one solid non-stop grind. The new schedule does allow me to sleep till after 11 in the morning which is a hell of a lot better than getting up at 8:30 a.m. for the 9 a.m. tournament. Friday because of the doctor's appointment I had I was not able to get started till 2 p.m. but still played almost 2000 cash hands.  Ended up losing $17 in the cash games and went over to and the $20 tournaments. This brought my downswing in the cash Games 2 about ($67) in losses over the last 4000 hands or so.  

As I began Saturday I did get started on time at 12 noon and was on the waiting lists by that point.  Since I started playing on WSOP the $20 Deepstack at 4:45 p.m. which I am hoping to be one of my regular daily tournaments played has been my nemesis. Since I started playing on WSOP going into Saturday I had zero Cashes in 15 attempts. I don't know what it is about that tournament but I seem to suffer the most bad beats on that particular one amongst any other. Of course once again the changing of the starting hand selection for both cash games and tournaments may or may not have an effect and I'm not going to know until I get several played, but today I finally overcame my nemesis for a 3rd place finish in a field of 81 runners for a $179.92 return. That meant no matter what happened in the Midnight Madness tournament at midnight I was going to end the day with tournament profits in August of $80 give or take a dollar on either side. 

The Midnight Madness lasted exactly one hand. The very first hand I got was UTG and am dealt AK and pot raised it to $70. Everybody folded and the big blind goes all-in for $2,000. When something like this happens you never know just exactly what the case is. Is he just a complete idiot trying to double-up real fast, does he really have something, and so I had to decide whether or not I wanted to put it on the line immediately. I know if he has does not have a pair that I am ahead so I made the call and he was just one of those idiots with 77, but unfortunately no A or K showed up and I was out on the very first hand.  

The cash game downswing continued on into its fourth day unfortunately, but today's losses were only a little over ($10) down. It was a fluctuating day where I was down ($30) at my low point and up $9 at my high point and seem to run everywhere in between. This however has brought my cash game downswing to losses of ($77) in the last 5500 hands or so, but I'm hopeful that today's session was a sign that I am coming out of it and I will be back at it tomorrow. It did drop my earn rate to under 5.9 big blinds per 100 hands played, with $78.49 in earnings over 13,344 hands played but right now I'm just concentrating on grinding and we will see exactly where we stand after 100,000 hands are played.

That's going to wrap this one up. My doctor's appointment on Friday was with a surgeon who basically said he could probably help the circulatory problems in both legs with some laser surgery, but in order for him to do the surgery I would have to be off blood thinners for 5 days and the last time I just missed a couple of doses of my blood thinner I ended up back in the hospital with a pulmonary embolism which is a fancy way of saying blood clot in the lung and this was after almost dying at the beginning of February from the very same thing. There's no way I'm going to take a chance like that with my life and I don't think my primary doctor would be none too crazy about it either. Sometimes in life you just seem to be caught between a rock and a hard place. Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.


Goal:  $12,000
Bankroll:  $471.71
Progress:  4%


6 comments:

  1. How do you track hands played on wsop NV?

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    1. Each table has a chat and a stats tab right above the chat box. It tells how many hands you were dealt on that table. When done with a table I write the number down and at the end of the session I add them all up to see how many hands I played that day. I then keep the running total on my blog.

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  2. FD says..."First off the short stacking idea. That is the last thing in the world that I want to do because quite honestly if I'm playing in a live setting, I do not want to run into an absolute monster be up against another absolute monster and lose large amounts of value to the tune of $200 or more because I was not sitting in with the maximum allowed which in most of the $1/$2 games in this town is $300."

    There are a number of downsides to short stacking a live cash game, but this shouldn't be the one you worry about. Just think how much value you are losing by playing 10 or 20nl online instead of live cash. 50bb is short but not that short. It still allow you to play most hands you normally would play, may be a bit tighter but you can get more aggressive with your hands. Besides, once you double up a couple of times you will play with a big stack, you won't be playing short stacked all the time. In fact if you can play a short stack well, most of the time you won't stay short stacked.

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  3. Flush, go back and read when Tony was down to few thousand and how he short stacked. IMO, you have a better chance of succeeding by short stacking than reaching $12k online playing 10 or 20NL.

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  4. Getting in the Rob range with the length of your posts... :)

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