Sunday, December 4, 2016

The Charming AgSweep

On this past Friday I had the opportunity to meet someone that I have been associated with on Twitter for quite some time who is part of the poker community, the lovely and charming AgSweep. Ag had sent me a message on Twitter that she was planning to be in town and if I was going to be available maybe we could finally meet in person and have a drink and this is definitely something I looked forward to because I enjoy being able to meet people from the poker community that I have communicated on Twitter with.  Ag to me has always come across on Twitter as a particularly classy individual and meeting her in person did nothing to change that opinion and only enhanced it.  We ended up meeting at a sports bar in the Linq and talked for well over two hours. We talked about anything and everything from poker, to poker players, to some more personal aspects of my life, to pretty much anything you could think of and it was an absolute pleasure talking with her and meeting her in person. I look forward to her next visit where I hope we will have the opportunity to kick back with a couple of drinks and continue the conversation once again. 

Saturday it looked like we would take our first rather significant loss as I was in for tournament buy-ins in the neighborhood of $100 but a 4th place finish in the $10 Deepstack Rebuy for $151 turned a potential $100 loss into a $50 profit for the day. We ended the day with total earnings of $752.36 with $50 of that being held offline for reasons that I will make clear shortly.
With just over $700 available and it was done the previous day as over $600 was available I have started delving into the $10 Deepstack Rebuys and which like the $3 Deepstack Rebuys I do the immediate rebuy only so it's a total cost of $20. The schedule for Sunday looked like this. 


0900am:  $3 DS RB $350 Gtd
1200pm:  $3 DS RB $400 Gtd
0400pm:  $3 DS RB $350 Gtd
0430pm:  $5 DS RB $500 Gtd
0530pm:  $10 DS RB $1000 Gtd
0730pm:  $3 DS RB $800 Gtd
0830pm:  $10 DS RB $1250 Gtd


I seem to have been in if not a cold stretch then a chilly one since I won the 12 noon $400 guaranteed $3 DS RB on Thursday for a $176 return.  As I progressed through today I found myself in a 1 for 12 stretch with that one cash being the fourth place $152 return in the $1,000 guaranteed, but no other cashes.  Sunday started out with me making an error which got me kicked out of the 9 a.m. when I shoved over the top on the flop with AQ top pair top kicker against an opponent who had significantly raised me on the flop, but because of my previous experiences with this particular opponent and the knowledge that they can be overly aggressive to the point of recklessness at times I let that dictate my decision when I really should have simply folded the hand. The 12 noon tournament I got knocked out when I flopped a set of fours against my opponents set of queens and I was out of the 4:30 p.m. $5 DS RB within the first hour when for the second time on Sunday I was eliminated from a tournament with a hand of three of a kind.  It was a bad day dropping a solid ($75).  After the completion of tournament play on Sunday the profits in the half action stake stood at a total of  $677.36 with $50 offline. This coming Friday that $50 will be utilized in a live tournament at the Golden Nugget. $627 available going into Monday.  Only 5 tournaments scheduled the four $3 Deepstack Rebuys and the $10 Deepstack Rebuy $1250 Gtd.

You'll notice that my current schedule of tournaments no longer contains any of the what WSOP would consider normal stack freeze-out tournaments as looking over my results for my entire playing time on WSOP utilizing PokerProLabs it is blatantly obvious that I do best in tournaments that have the most starting chips aka the rebuys in which I do the immediate rebuy for a double stack. Don't get me wrong I have done significantly well in the $1 and $2 MTTs, but those are no longer in my playlist as the available amount of money has increased.

The half action stake is tentatively scheduled to end when earnings reach $1,000. If the earnings jumped up to $1,200 as an example we would then utilize $200 as a stop loss to try to increase the earnings even further and if it fell to $1,000 we will cash out. If we turn that $1200 to say $1,500 then we would up the cash out plan to $1200 and utilize $300 in tournament buy-ins as a stop loss in an effort to increase the profits even more and so on and so on. With my half of those $1000 in earnings I would utilize that $500 to play 4 tournaments a day, the $3 Deepstack Rebuys and like I am doing now as soon as I got it up and over the $600 Mark delve right back into the $10 rebuys, but would be doing so on my own and no longer in a half action stake obviously.

Kat Martin left a few comments on my last entry and it is readily apparent to me that he completely disagrees with my statements about tournaments having less variance for me than cash games. The fact of the matter is those statements that I make are not towards anybody else but simply about me. I know that it goes against the common beliefs of the poker community in general, but I'll give you another one that many will disagree with and the fact of the matter is in my opinion no limit tournaments take far more skill to do well in than no limit cash games. I'll go a step further  and tell you that it is my belief that there is more skill to do well in a limit cash game than there is in a No Limit cash game. This also goes against the general poker communities view, but the way I look at it when you are in a tournament it takes more skill to do well in something where if you lose all your chips you are done, you are gone, it is over, but in a no limit cash game if you lose all your chips you can simply take more money out of your pocket and reload your chips and try again.  Again this is my personal opinion and I do not expect anyone to agree with it although some might and I know most won't.  As far as the comparison between limit games and no limit games to me there is no comparison. To me it takes a hell of a lot more skill to grind out a profit in a limit game where your bets are obviously limited than it does for some fool to overbet a pot and throw out a $100 bet or more in order to take down a pot.  Disagree with me all you want but this has been my opinion since I started playing poker back in 2004 and it's not about to change anytime soon. 

His last comment that he left he gave me a link to a site that basically gave the pros and cons to being a tournament player to being a cash game player and this site like many others out there and many people out there feel that the variance is less in cash games and they gave side-by-side hypothetical graphs to prove that point 






Now here is my 2016 tournament graph and to me mine looks more similar to the hypothetical cash game graph yet mine is for tournaments.



I won't pretend to understand why it works this way for me, I simply know it does and that tournament graph is not some small sample size as it cover over 700 tournaments played.

Well that's going to be a wrap. I will be taking Thursday and Friday off from online poker. Thursday I have two doctors appointments in the same office that have to do with my pulmonologist and the other one is actually his brother who works at the same office who deals with sleep apnea. It turns out when I had a sleep study done a month or two ago I was told by the nurse at my doctor's office that in the first hour I stopped breathing 68 times!!  Damn!!  That's pretty severe so undoubtedly they are going to want to get me one of those crazy machines that you have to sleep with at night, but we will see what they say on Thursday and then of course Friday I will be playing in the 11 a.m. tournament at the Golden Nugget. Until next time take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

Bankroll:  $338.68
Goal: $4000
Progress:  8%


7 comments:

  1. So your conclusion is that you win in low-buy-in NLHE tournaments which require a lot of skill, and are a consistent loser in NLHE cash games that require far less skill?

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  2. AgSweep (Mary) is a great person. I'm glad you were able to meet her.

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  3. Fuck the trolls who attack you like Kat Martin. Do what you want. After all it is your money and sanity on the line. So your opinion should be priority #1

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    1. I'm not attacking anyone, sir, I am interested in how poker players think and am simply seeking clarity. Flushhdraw is clearly making the correct decision to pursue tournaments since he enjoys them and that is where he makes money. However, he is plain wrong in asserting that his personal variance is lower in tournaments than in cash games. Based on his own reports on his WSOP cash game experiment, the variance about the mean is low, it's just that the mean is a steady downward curve.

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    2. Kat Martin's questions are fair and on point. Flushdraw can play whichever game he is best at, but if he is going to make his analysis of poker games public in his blog, then he should be prepared (and in fact welcome) challenges to his assertions. They can always agree to disagree.

      FWIW, I agree with Kat's question, and on the issue of variance. However, things are relative. I believe a good cash game player is going to experience much lower variance than a good tournament player. But all tournaments are not created equally. For tournament players, variance is going to be affected by the blind structure+starting stack, the payout structure, field size, field toughness and overall opponents style, and player style/competence. I think when you combine small field size, easy competition, and relatively small sample size of 700 tournaments, one can be led to an questionable conclusion.

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    3. My response is as follows....... :P

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  4. Yep - there are a lot of bums in the poker world, but AgSweep is a good person.

    s.i.

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