Wednesday, January 25, 2017

Comment Responses And A Bankroll Management Adjustment

First a few comment responses.

Pokerdogg said:

Congrats on turning the streak around. I hope that the momentum continues and you will be able to go up in stakes instead of spending your earnings.

Oh hell yeah, no doubt about it in my mind. Being my income is extraordinary limited there are going to be times that I have to borrow from my bankroll, but every dime I do borrow from that bankroll will be paid back. I do not intend to wallow in only $3 deepstack rebuys and $5 MTTs for all of 2017. It should be noted that even when I am playing $10 rebuys and $20 and $25 tournaments I will still  be playing these $3 deepstack rebuys also, but I refuse to be restricted and limited to these alone because I decided to take two or three hundred and go out and have some fun.

Pokerdogg also said:

I know it is hard to resist thinking about hitting that big score and rocket up your bankroll, but in the long run as a professional, it is all about ROI, and each of those $20 buyin tournaments is worth $x dollars based on your theoretical ROI.

Understood, sir. PokerProLabs in 2016 shows me as having a 76.8% ROI in 815 tournaments played however they are unable to calculate the rebuys and add-ons that were made in rebuy tournaments. I know for a fact their listing of my $2,500 profit in tournaments is in fact off by $500  where I in fact made approximately $2,000. Utilizing the facts available  my true ROI for those 815 tournaments is not 76.8%, but is in fact 60.6%. With that said if I can play and average 15 tournaments that cost me $20 per week for nine months out of the year which would be 36 weeks that would still be a profit for the year of $6,480 from $10 Rebuys and $20 deepstack tournaments alone. I estimate that if I were to play online for all of 2017 at a bare minimum earnings will be $8,000,  however this is not taking into consideration any $25 and $50 tournaments that may be played. However, as you know, as soon as $5,000 is earned I will be taking my try at the daily live tournaments at the Golden Nugget so it is hard to estimate exact earnings for 2017.

And he concluded by saying:

Did you review every single hand played in those tournaments, and recognize every single error you made, and you lost in every single instance? Do you have anyone whose game you trust to go over the hand history with you? I probably haven't played as many tournaments as you, but in most of the tournaments that I bust out due to a bad beat, I can trace back a number of hands leading up to the final hand where I could have played better, be in a better chip position, which may have prevented the eventual bust out. Tournaments is a series of compounding errors (or non errors). If you are too focused on the final bust out hands, you are likely missing the bigger more important picture.

What I did was I went back and looked over those tournament histories and I checked the hands that got me knocked out of the tournament and also the hands that lost me a significant amount of chips to see if an error was made by me. I did not check the hands where my chip stack increased significantly so I guess it is possible that mistakes were made during those times and I in fact did benefit from an error. That review took me five and a half hours as it was so I was quite confident that I had reviewed all that needed to be reviewed and of course since fixing those mistakes although I did instantly hit that cold run, I did snap out of it and beginning today's action earnings for the month we're at $175. Not a huge number for earnings, but better than the (-$17) overall I was at just a few days ago so even if my review was not entirely complete I think it was sufficient enough to spot the errors that I was making and correct them.

Seattleirish said in part:

The answer was in your last blog entry - you said you examined hands where you were knocked out or lost significant chips. Axiomatically, if you're only examining losing hands, you simply won't find hands where your mistakes were rewarded:

You and Pokerdogg basically said the same thing and I do realize that by not checking the hands where my stack increased significantly I cannot find out if my mistakes were rewarded from time to time.

Seattleirish also said:

I also think you should be looking at your low-stakes play differently. Rather than looking at it as simply building a bankroll for bigger stakes, look at it is foundational learning. Playing lower stakes allows you to hone your skills and develop positive poker habits. That, alone, has value.

I agree with that to a certain extent Seattle, and well I would like to say after 13 years of Poker playing that my skills are truly home I still find myself learning something new on a constant basis mostly about my own feelings from time to time inability to still commit errors. Learning over and over that I'm simply human is not exactly something I like, but something I must accept.

It is true my experience in the $20 tournaments online is somewhat  limited in comparison, but I am happy to say it is overall positive. In my time on WSOP I have played 28 of the $10 rebuys and have gone 5 for16 with total earnings of $295.54. In the $20 deepstack 5 for 36 with earnings of $154.95. $10 knockout tournaments which ra $10 buy-in with $10 knockouts for a $20 total cost I am 6 for a 19 with earnings of $193.82, and in 11 tries in the $20 Midnight Madness I am 2 for 9 with losses of only ($2.54).

He concluded with:

Regardless, congrats on your run-good! I declare 2017, The Year of the Flush Draw!

Thank you very much for that vote of confidence. There are only a handful of people that actually think I will be successful and I must tell you that means a lot. Thank you very much.

Poker & Gambling 24/7 said:

I hope the rest of 2017 is the biggest volcano for you. I hope Michelle gets much better and never has to visit that nasty hospital again. It's great she has a friend like you to keep her company

Thanks much P&G for both your thoughts on my poker and for my friend Michelle. As far as she goes I'm not doing anything special just trying to be a good friend and I figure if she has somebody that's watching over her apartment and more importantly her beloved pet, and she doesn't have to be concerned that the cat is being fed and being given attention and whatnot that will possibly help her get better.  I don't know, like I said just doing what any good friend would do if they could do it.

Now for the latest update. I have once again adjusted my bankroll management plan. I am sure I am going to get taken to task for this for changing my mind yet again, but the fact of the matter is that I have to do what is most comfortable for me. It's very easy for me to jot things on a notepad and say "Yes this sounds good, this is great, I want this aggressive bankroll approach" but then when it comes down to actual spending of those dollars I really have to go with what's most comfortable for me, the player.

Under my aggressive bankroll approach taking 25 buyin shots  seemed like a good plan but then when it comes actually down to it, when it comes to me actually spending the money, I find I am not altogether comfortable spending $10 for a tournament if I only have $250 or even with a $300 bankroll. I am much more comfortable doing this if I have a $400 bankroll so because of this fact I have decided to adjust things. Go ahead, feel free to give me hell for changing my mind again, but I'm not going to do something that makes me feel uncomfortable.

$1 tournaments have been retired and will stay retired unless I was to hit a massive downswing where all of a sudden it drops my bankroll to below $100, but for $3 rebuys and $5 tournaments there is no bankroll stipulation. A bankroll above $100 and these will be played no matter what.  However as I look at the higher amounts I find that I will be more comfortable playing $10 tournaments with a $400 bankroll or higher.  This does not include the $10 rebuys however because those are a total cost of $20. When I say $10 I mean $5 rebuys for a total cost of $10 and the $10 6-max PLO deepstack reentry in which I only spend $10 in. For the $10 rebuys, which cost a total of $20 I'm not going to be comfortable with $400 or even $500 I can already tell so I will be waiting for $600 for those.

On the surface I realize it sounds a little weird because for $10 tournaments I'm utilizing 40 buyins yet for $20 tournaments I'm only going with 30 buyins. Doesn't really make much sense to me either, but it seems to me that it's not so much a buy-in level that I'm comfortable with , but more so a dollar amount. since there are only a maximum of five $20 tournaments a day that I would play on any particular day with $600 it would give me a full day of $20 tournaments to take a shot at them and even if I was unsuccessful still give me plenty of a comfort for $10 tournaments.  The $25 super deepstack is only once a week and I feel a $700 bankroll would make me comfortable enough to add this and with a $1,000 bankroll I would then feel comfortable enough to add the $50 deepstack played each Sunday.

That's going to wrap this one up. Please continue to keep my friend Michelle in your thoughts and prayers and until I touch base next time take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

3 comments:

  1. I agree with that to a certain extent Seattle

    I don't mean to give you s**t, but what part don't you agree with?

    adjusted my bankroll management plan. I am sure I am going to get taken to task

    What's wrong with adjusting your plan. I applaud your flexibility -- good luck with all your plans!

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  2. What I meant was I have played 80 tournaments in the $20 price range and am showing relatively decent earnings in them so I don't think I am honing my skills as much as I am doing whatever I can to keep them actively sharp.

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    ReplyDelete