Sunday, January 1, 2017

The 2017 Grind, Goals, Plans, Projections & Resolutions

So I took the last couple weeks of any serious poker off the end of December, played a few freerolls, some $1 tournaments a couple of twos mixed in here and there and I begin 2017 with the $10 in profits from that and the $250 deposit that was made at the end of December. With 2016 now complete, final recorded earnings were over $2,500 with $1,961 in online earnings, $573 in live profits. Add another $500 minimum in additional live earnings before I started recording those as well and I end 2016 with roughly $3,000 in total profits in poker.  Every dime of that $3000, plus more, was spent during 2016. I have addressed this before and while I've always said I don't regret it obviously part of me has to. Yes, I've had a lot of fun in 2016.  I've had some nights that are still a bit hazy, there has been a moderate amount of alcoholic beverage consumption during the year to say the least, hanging out with good friends, 15 hour limit cash game sessions at the Golden Nugget, hookers trying to solicit me on Freemont St at 5 in the morning, playing Blackjack, roulette, having a good time on Fremont Street with the live bands and chasing girls, and pretty much just simply had a lot of fun. 

However, it can not be denied that if I had left those profits online and continued to build how fast would I have been in those $10 deepstack rebuys and how many times would I have won them?? How many times with those $10 rebuys and $25 super deepstacks would have provided hundreds of dollars in returns. I can easily see that nearly $2k in online earnings could have easily been $10k considering a $10 rebuy and $25 super deepstack is 3-5 times the stake of a $3 rebuy or $5 freeze out and I would have had the ability to play them months and months sooner to say nothing of the potential of the $50 freezeout $3,500 guaranteed that I could have been playing and the only reason, the only reason that I have been restricted to those lower buy-in tournaments for most of the year is because of the withdraws, not building up the bankroll, spending recklessly and that's why not doing that is my number one poker resolution for 2017.
 
The bankroll management plan that I posted in the last entry was not set in stone and the whole process was a work in progress. I decided to hit 2017 with an aggressive approach so that I am not stuck in mini stakes for an extended period of time and at the same time gives me the opportunity to take my shots on any given day at higher tournaments specifically speaking the $10 rebuys, $20 Deepstack, $25 Super Deepstack and so on, but at the same time I want to protect this starting deposit of $250 that has been made for 2017 as I intend for it to be the only deposit made this year unless I am faced with a situation where I will withdraw the entire balance for a day or two and then redeposit it because of a reload bonus of some sort. 

The standard bankroll approach for tournament players is 100 buyins or 100 average buyins, but my approach is going to be a day by day 30 buyin approach. I have to be careful with this because if you take a day like Saturday under this approach, supposing I got into a very bad cold run, the amount of money lost in just a single day could add up very fast.  As a typical example let's assume a typical Saturday on WSOP with a bankroll of $600.  That would mean playing three $10 rebuys, a $20 Deepstack, the $25 Super Deepstack simply because it is only once a week, probably four $5 freezeouts, two $5 Deepstack Rebuys, two $2 freezeouts, and maybe six $1 tournaments during the course of the entire day and if I did not have a cash it would cost $155. That $600 bankroll could be down to $355 is in the space of a single day.  This approach will undobtedly mean a yo-yo scenario of the bankroll in the short term, but at the same time it's going to allow me to climb the tournament buyins much faster.  

So with the online approach settled does that transfer over to the live approach. I really fail to see why it shouldn't. If I'm utilizing a 30 buyin approach for online then utilizing a 30 buyin approach for live tournaments seems reasonable. This is not saying that it would be a full bankroll for live tournaments, but it is saying it would give me the opportunity to make a run at it, but I will only do it if I can keep roughly the same amount online. This way if I were to fail at my first trial run at the live tournaments because of an immediate cold run and a bankroll not large enough to withstand it, I would have a significant amount still remaining online to fall back on and I would only be playing live tournaments 5 days a week anyway as the weekends will be reserved for online. The extra $5 rebuy and $10 rebuy they add on the weekends plus the $25 super deepstack and $50 freezeout $3,500 guaranteed are too damn lucrative to pass up. 

What all of this means is 30 buyins for the $70 tournaments at the Golden Nugget will be only $2,100, plus an equivalent amount remaining online so let's round things off and it would mean a goal of $4,000. $2000 for a live run and $2000 remaining online. This can and will be achieved much more quickly then the $7,000 goal I had talked about recently and will actually leave more money in reserve online than previously planned. To start out with all live tournaments will be played at the Golden Nugget as after looking over the structure for the 2pm $75 tournament at Treasure Island I have decided to forgo that one.  Even with a $15k starting chip stack the structure at the Golden Nugget  is much better for my particular style of play and if I'm looking for something to do in the middle of the day, I will jump in the 3 p.m. $50 tournament at the Golden Nugget. Yes it's only a $5k starting stack, yes it has a 34% juice, but the sheer convenience and structure of that tournament is enough to give me the edge I need and that will overcome any other negative aspects.

The 2017 starting balance is $260. Under the 2017 bankroll management plan I will be able to start out with the $1, $2, and $5 freezeouts and $3 Deepstack Rebuys and a deep cash in one of those could start 2017 off in the right direction in a big big way. A few deep cashes in succession and I could be playing $10 deepstack rebuys which pay $500 and $800 up top so fast it'll make my own head spin. Under circumstances such as that I could have that four grand in a matter of a few months. No, I do not think it will be that fast, I mean that would be asking an awful lot, but just how long do I think it will take?? I feel that this can be done in 6 months or less.


I posted a couple in the last entry but these are my resolutions both poker and personal for 2017.


1. Do not make any withdraws from the online account unless absolutely positively necessary and these would be loans only in which all loans must be paid back within 30 days. If I am unable to pay it back within 30 days the loan cannot be made.

2. Make every attempt to manage my monthly money better so that I do not have to make loans from the bankroll.

3. Play only tournaments in 2017. This is specifically for online as if I get together with some friends and they want to play some live to $2/$4.  I will do that if I have the money for it, but unless it is a special circumstance like that tournament only both online and live. 

4. Do not have a real cigarette in 2017. I have gone over 3 weeks since my last real cigarette and I simply want to continue that on and 2017.

5. Although I don't think it will take me the full year and if I stick to the resolutions listed above this one should be easy, but get the online account balance up to $4,000 sometime in 2017.


Well that's going to wrap this up.  I have started off 2017 with a head cold actually it began a couple of days before New Year's Eve and I knew it was headed my way, but now it's full-blown. With that said my sleep schedule is so whacked I have no way of knowing if I'm going to be able to put in full poker days until this clears as I am sleeping all sorts of odd hours. I'm  beginning 2017 poker today, January 1st, but it's now 3 a.m. and I've been up since I woke up from a nap earlier and I have no idea what time I'm going to be dropping off to sleep today so I'll just get in as many tournaments as I possibly can. I hope to start things off with the 8am $5 freezeout if it goes off which it does not always at that time of the morning and then the 9 a.m. $3 Deepstack Rebuy.  I want to wish all of my readers a very happy, healthy, and prosperous New Year. May you accomplish everything you want in 2017 and may happiness be your most consistent companion. As always my friends and readers, I'll see you at the tables.


Bankroll:  $260
Goal:  $4000
Progress:  6%






2 comments:

  1. I have gone over 3 weeks since my last real cigarette

    Nice!

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  2. If you borrow from your roll pay yourself 5% interest. You should never borrow from your roll. Never make withdraws until you hit your goal of 4k. Don't deposit money you can't afford to be without and keep a portion of your total roll liquid so you can play live when conditions are favorable. Be strict, be goal orientated,nobody's going to do this for you. This is work you have to do every single day before you play even one hand of poker every single day.

    ReplyDelete