Tuesday, January 24, 2017

The Exploding Volcano

Pretty much the first half of January has been one struggle after another. First off I realized mistakes that I had been making and even when I figured out those mistakes the Poker Gods saw fit to put me into an immediate cold run that would make Antarctica look warm and balmy. I mean we're talking seven straight times of flopping top two and getting beat and consequently knocked out of the tournament, getting knocked out of tournaments with a flush by a higher flush three times, having AA cracked in tournaments five straight times. There are additional examples but you get the gist. 

To begin 2017 in the first 108 tournaments I was stake to 14 of those tournaments in which my share of the earnings were $36.05. That left 94 tournaments  that I played and paid on my own dime and to begin 2017 I had shown losses in those 94 tournaments of ($97.93.)  If you recall I had wrote about eras that I discovered in 22 of approximately the first 45 tournaments played but that was still a tournament run of over 45 tournaments where I was playing my absolute a game but getting screwed left and right. It was a relatively new experience for me because I do not believe I had a run like that at all in 2016 and certainly did not in the last 3 months of 2016 when I turned for all intents and purposes to strictly tournament play. Frustration does not even begin to describe the situation. 

On January 18th I played six tournaments that day and finished in the money in two of them and ended up making $22 that day. Obviously a small amount of earnings, but the way January had been running $22 seemed huge, hell any profit I made would have seemed huge at that point. The very next day I played six more tournaments on the 19th finishing two out of the six once again with earnings of $77. I had said previously on Twitter that when I busted out of this cold run it would probably explode like a volcano.  Was this a sign that the volcano was rumbling a little bit.  I followed up the next day losing the $9 on the day but then Saturday the 22nd, I cashed in three out of five with two second-place finishes in $5 freezeouts for $36 and $34 respectively and this was topped off with a third-place finish out of 99 Runners for $88.12 in the 4 p.m. $3 deepstack rebuy.  Bam the volcano had exploded. Just under $220 in earnings in the last 26 tournaments played. Damn did it feel good to bust out like that and all of a sudden January turned itself into a winning month so far to the tune of a bankroll going into today's play of $469.14 with me now showing earnings for the month of January of $209.14.

Now let me be clear $200 in earnings in 22 days is nothing to totally celebrate  I mean we're only talking just over $65 a week and I understand that, but when everything that can go wrong seems like it did go wrong in the first 94 tournaments with very very few exceptions, it is a real good feeling to turn things around and get into the positive. Someone on my Twitter tweeted that it was about a buck a tournament so was it worth the time and my immediate answer is definitely yes because it's not about what I'm making now it's about what the earnings will produce later. Because of all the spending I did of profits in 2016 I was only able to play the $10 rebuys and $20 tournaments in October and November when I was half staked because every time you win a few hundred, go have fun and spend it, and leave yourself $200 or $300 online to wash, rinse, and repeat with, you still have to play the same $2, $3, and $5 tournaments. Here we are in January, I'm now up $209 for the month and last year this would have been an immediate withdrawal and go spend the day at the Golden Nugget, but because I am keeping it right where it belongs, I am now able to play the $5 rebuys and just an additional $31 in earnings and I will be able to make some stabs at the $10 rebuys and $20 and $25 freeze-out deepstack and super deepstack tournaments and the timing of which will be 8 to 10 months earlier than it was last year. These $3 rebuys and $5 small field freeze-outs aren't going to make the significant earnings in the long run but the $10 rebuys, $20 deepstacks, and $25 super deepstacks in which these tournaments pay anywhere from $450 to up over $1,000 up top is where the real earnings will come in, but you need the small ones to create the earnings for the larger ones.  

What really floors me about the beginning of January is I realize that I had made 22 errors in different tournaments that caused me to be crippled in the tournament or completely knocked out, but yet I constantly see my opponents making errors and getting rewarded for it. I can honestly say when I went back and reviewed those tournaments that not in a single instance did errors by me get rewarded. I have to actually laugh at it because I can't understand why it is this way. If my opponents get rewarded when they're making errors why wasn't I able to get rewarded a time or two. I guess actually in retrospect I'm glad I didn't get rewarded because if I had I would not have realized it was a problem, then I would not have been able to fix the problem, and I could have been making those same mistakes in tournaments three times the cost of what they were so I guess in the end it worked out for the best.

I took Sunday off and spent the day with Michelle visiting her in the hospital which she is back in the hospital again so please your prayers and thoughts are appreciated, and we spent the day watching the football games. She has a private room and it has this very long couch which has to be at least six and a half feet long and rather than go back to her place I just decided to sleep on the couch and I left early Monday morning so that I could get back to her house and back to the laptop for a full day of tournaments....... or so I thought. 

I got back to Michelle's house around between 6 and 7 a.m. as I woke up at 4 a.m. and I only played 4 tournaments on Monday and took three bad beats out of the four and I was so tired that I fell asleep between 3 and 4 p.m. and did not fully wake up until 7 the next morning. Count it people that's about 15 hours of sleep. Don't even ask me why my body needed that much sleep because I do not have an answer for you, but I did wake up Tuesday morning at 7 and man did I feel refreshed and I knew Tuesday would definitely be a full day of tournaments. The 0 for 4 run on Monday cost me $19 so going into Tuesday I was exactly $50 away from being able to get back to those $10 rebuys and $20 deepstacks that were aforementioned.

Two points before I wrap this up that you may or may not have noticed. On the right side of the blog you may notice there is results for cash games which means I busted one of my New Year's resolutions not to play cash games online. The reason that I did it was at the time I was only 21 points from clearing a $10 bonus and felt by playing some cash games that day that would get me to that bonus a little bit faster, which it did and I was even able to make a small profit on it, but I have not played them since. It's the same old story I don't enjoy cash games I enjoy tournaments, but I may use them from time to time perhaps just to achieve certain goals like clearing bonuses.

The other thing you may or may not have noticed is that the goal amount has risen to $5,000 from $4,000 and there is no grandiose reason for this other than that when I do play live on a daily basis I just decided I wanted to give myself a few more buy-ins. Well that and $5000 seems like a more rounded number than $4,000. Don't have to be why it does it just does can I help it if I'm that anal-retentive lol. So anyway, when I do reach $5000 I will take $3,000 for live play and keep $2,000 in reserve for weekend online play and a return to full-time online play If the live play provides unfortunate results let's say.

That's where I'm going to wrap this entry up. I'm currently in the 9 a.m. $3 deepstack rebuy. Not doing too much in the first hour, but It didn't help that I got sat out with AA and would have flopped a set and turned a boat, but hey it's not the first time that's happened. My attention was diverted elsewhere for a few moments and I paid the price for it. I start the day with a bankroll of $450, which no matter what happens, whether or not I get up to $500 today, either way I've got some breathing room for the current tournaments that I am playing on a daily basis, so for now all is well. Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.


Bankroll:  $450.14
Goal:  $5000
Progress:  9%



4 comments:

  1. Congrats on turning the streak around. I hope that the momentum continues and you will be able to go up in stakes instead of spending your earnings.

    FD says... "These $3 rebuys and $5 small field freeze-outs aren't going to make the significant earnings in the long run but the $10 rebuys, $20 deepstacks, and $25 super deepstacks in which these tournaments pay anywhere from $450 to up over $1,000 up top is where the real earnings will come in"

    I know it is hard to resist thinking about hitting that big score and rocket up your bankroll, but in the long run as a professional, it is all about ROI, and each of those $20 buyin tournaments is worth $x dollars based on your theoretical ROI.

    FD says..."What really floors me about the beginning of January is I realize that I had made 22 errors in different tournaments that caused me to be crippled in the tournament or completely knocked out, but yet I constantly see my opponents making errors and getting rewarded for it. I can honestly say when I went back and reviewed those tournaments that not in a single instance did errors by me get rewarded."

    Are you sure about this? Did you review every single hand played in those tournaments, and recognize every single error you made, and you lost in every single instance? Do you have anyone whose game you trust to go over the hand history with you? I probably haven't played as many tournaments as you, but in most of the tournaments that I bust out due to a bad beat, I can trace back a number of hands leading up to the final hand where I could have played better, be in a better chip position, which may have prevented the eventual bust out. Tournaments is a series of compounding errors (or non errors). If you are too focused on the final bust out hands, you are likely missing the bigger more important picture.

    GL.

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  2. PD:

    I think I found an answer for the question you asked this blog:

    "What really floors me about the beginning of January is I realize that I had made 22 errors in different tournaments that caused me to be crippled in the tournament or completely knocked out, but yet I constantly see my opponents making errors and getting rewarded for it. I can honestly say when I went back and reviewed those tournaments that not in a single instance did errors by me get rewarded. I have to actually laugh at it because I can't understand why it is this way. If my opponents get rewarded when they're making errors why wasn't I able to get rewarded a time or two?"

    The answer was in your last blog entry - you said you examined hands where you were knocked out or lost significant chips. Axiomatically, if you're only examining losing hands, you simply won't find hands where your mistakes were rewarded:

    "Was this simply a bad streak of variance or was I at fault for this horrendously bad start?? I decided I better find out one way or the other before this went any further and to that end I went back over the first 43 tournaments that I played on my own dime. I looked at instances that I went out on and also hands where I lost a significant amount of chips and what I found shocked me. In 2017 I made errors that cost me a significant portion of my stack or knocked me out of the tournament completely in a total of 22 of 43 tournaments played!! After seeing this I was so disgusted with myself as a poker player I was ready to physically vomit."

    I also think you should be looking at your low-stakes play differently. Rather than looking at it as simply building a bankroll for bigger stakes, look at it is foundational learning. Playing lower stakes allows you to hone your skills and develop positive poker habits. That, alone, has value.

    Regardless, congrats on your run-good! I declare 2017, The Year of the Flush Draw!

    s.i.

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    Replies
    1. Thank you S.I. for looking that up. I was suspecting a severe case of sampling bias. I was hoping FD can reflect on his analysis and tell us more details on how he came to his conclusion.

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  3. I hope the rest of 2017 is the biggest volcano for you. I hope Michelle gets much better and never has to visit that nasty hospital again. It's great she has a friend like you to keep her company.

    ReplyDelete