Monday, February 27, 2017

Future Plans Adjustment

I have decided to make an adjustment to my future plans. As you know my goal is $5,000 so that I can utilize approximately $3,500 for live play at the Golden Nugget each morning which would give me 50 buyins for them, and keep the remainder for online play. The Golden Nugget tournaments however have 20 minute blind levels, a fantastic blind structure, but nonetheless 20 minute blind levels, and since my playing style is best geared to the highest starting stacks and longest blind levels, I started doing a little poking around and found that I might be far better off instead of playing the 11am $70 tournament at the Golden Nugget each morning, which by the way has a 26% or 27% juice, that it might be better to play in tournaments that have a similar blind structure meaning blind levels of 1000/2000 not happening until approximately level 10, but at the same time finding tournaments that also have at least 30 minute blend levels. 

After some checking, and as I am sure is blatantly obvious to anyone reading this, in order to accomplish this it's going to require a a buy-in higher than $70. It's one of those cases of you cannot have your cake and eat it too. The daily $125 tournament at 1 p.m. at the Aria Monday through Thursday is probably the best possibility. There are other higher-priced tournaments  that have higher starting stacks  comma but let's be reasonable about this  it's starting off my daily life plan I need to keep with the price reasonable for me. This presents a few issues that need to be thought about.  First of all 50 buy-ins for a $125 tournament if I were going to do it as I was going to for the Golden Nugget tournament is $6,250 for the live tournaments alone. Just to round things off let's say another $1750 for online we are looking at a goal amount of $8,000 which is $3,000 higher than the current $5,000 goal. I am not liking this at all since the last thing in the world I want to happen is for this to take a longer than necessary.

Since these tournaments are only Monday thru Thursday perhaps if I just give it a one-month try as an example, then I would not need as much. At the end of that month I could see what the profits or losses were and then reevaluate at that time. Playing a Monday through Thursday tournament the most I would be able to play in a month is 19 of them. I rounded it off to 20 because I can always use the extra $125 for expenses of some sort, but no matter how you slice it and dice it, 20 tournaments at $125 each is $2,500. We leave another $1,500 online and lo and behold my goal amount can actually be decreased to $4000. If I wanted to give myself a two-month try then I would need $5,000 for the live game and then let's say $2,000 for online for a total of $7,000 thus increasing the goal amount by $2,000. There is no doubt in the world which one that I am choosing. New goal is $4,000. Tournament to be played will be the $125 daily at the Aria Monday through Thursday. Friday, Saturday, and Sundays will be played online.

My biggest concern about this plan is undoubtedly the Aria tournament probably gets significantly more players than the Golden Nugget one does so cashing in it could be more difficult, but then again online, where the competition is more difficult, I am facing fields of over 75 almost each and every tournament and I'm killing it as far as ROI goes so I'm just going to hope that even if I don't start out on a heater hopefully I don't start out on an ice cold run. Even if I were to lose the entire $2500, let's say I went 0 for 19 in that first month, I would then simply realized that I need more buy-ins and a longer testing period, perhaps two months, and if that didn't work then it would be three months and I will keep doing this until it works.  If I need to reevaluate and try again I will simply earn the money online and then try again and again and again for as long as it takes.

Today was a good day on the tournament tables. The previous day was a small loss but I had broken an 0 for 14 slump with a couple of small cashes. Going into today bankroll was $707 and today I played six tournaments on my own dime and three $20 tournaments in which MIB decided to get in on half the action. We have decided to put an end to the satellites because I am not a turbo player by any stretch of the imagination but it was worth playing the ones that I did for a chance into a $200 tournament.  The tournaments I played on my own dime I ended up making $43. I cashed twice in the $3 deepstack rebuys one of them being a fifth-place finish in the 9 a.m. tournament for $63. On the three tournament's that MIB had half action in my share of the earnings was roughly $80 so overall the day was about $123 profit for me personally.  In the three tournaments that MIB had have action in I cashed in two of them both 5th Place finishes one for $142 and the other for $111 so overall it was a good day and brought my bankroll up to $830.68 and with the new goal amount being actually dropped by $1,000 I am now 21% towards it. 

I am taking all day Monday off and sleeping late considering it is after 4 a.m. as I complete this entry and on Tuesday MIB and I will be doing another half action arrangement on the three $20 tournaments. With the bankroll of $830 currently a lot of things are happening and will be happening. I am $170 away from a $1,000 bankroll in which I will be playing the $20 tournaments on my own dime exclusively for as long as the bankroll is $1,000 or higher. Also even if I do not cash in a single tournament on Tuesday which I hope it's not the case, I will end February with earnings of at least $533 for the month and a minimum of earnings of $746 for 2017. 

That's going to wrap up this entry for now. I am very happy about the results so far this year and even though it doesn't seem like a lot to some people it is more than I expected for the first two months. It's slow going, but it's getting me to my ultimate goal and that's what I am so focused on right now. That's why I going through borderline sleep deprivation, grinding 16 hours a day because as anyone that's been a long time reader knows, I'll put in what it takes to get to my goal. Long hours playing poker and has never bothered me before it is not about to start now. So until next time, take care everyone, and I'll see you at the tables.

Bankroll:  $830.68
Goal:  $4000
Progress:  21%

 

6 comments:

  1. FD, if you want to take shots at the Aria $125 tournaments, why not just take a shot every time you got $125 above $1500?

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    1. That's a pretty damn good suggestion poker Pokerdogg the only problem is that every single time it would take a side trip to a different casino to pick the money up so that's why I just figured giving myself a month's worth of them all at once would be the best approach. Under any circumstances no matter what I do not want to ever have to restart from scratch online again. My days of $1 and $2 tournaments to cash for $15 or $20 up top is way behind me.

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    2. I see. Are there any other withdrawal methods beside picking up cash at the casino? If they can pay by direct deposit into your bank, or send a cheque, that would solve your logistic problem.

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    3. It may sound counter intuitive why I would suggest taking shots with one buying while I have advocated a traditional high number of buyins for tournaments. The main reason is psychological. If you want to take shot with 20 buyins, there is actually a decent chance you will go bust. It would have taken you a long time to reach the $4000 mark, to lose 5/8 of that in a month would likely be devastating. If you take the one buying approach, you would expect to lose it most of the time. If you lose, at least you had a change of pace, and no big deal to grind up another buying online. If you lucky and bing one, then you are off to the races. IMHO : 100 buyins >> 1 buying >> 1 buyin in your particular situation. Hope that makes sense.

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    4. Actually I think you were a genius for the suggestion and while I am not taking it exactly I have found a middle ground that is between my original plan and your suggestion, but leans much closer towards your end of the recommendation. Next entry published tonight will be explained.

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  2. Hope you can reach your goals fast! I like the sound of the Aria tourney. What is the size of the pot/payouts? This may also help if you can win/cash early in the month. . It will put you ahead.You can do it. Good luck.

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