Wednesday, March 22, 2017

Where The Money Is

For nearly three months now I have been grinding tournaments online and averaging about $225 in earnings a month. However the live tournament play seems so far off in the distance and while I am a good tournament player with the buyins that I am forced to play online and quite frankly with the amount of money being invested on a daily basis it seems that this is not where the money is and I need to be doing whatever it takes to get me into these live tournaments as fast as possible and that means I need to be playing where the money is.

As much as I hate the thought of this the fact of the matter is I can make more month by month on average grinding the online $10 and $20 No Limit cash games then I can grinding the tournaments in the buyins that I am forced to play at this point. $500 minimum a month is a realistic possibility grinding the cash games and furthermore with a lot less risk to the bankroll. If you figure worst case scenario is I may lose for a 5 buyins in a single day that's %m $40 or $50 compared to some days where my tournament buy-ins are over $100 a day. 

Quite frankly I'm getting tired of having to grind online day in and day out and day in and day out when my real life is outside of this house, my real life is in casinos playing live tournaments, that's where my true destiny lies, but it's hard to achieve destiny with lack of capital. Furthermore I want to be playing live tournaments at least a few times a month  to start out with anyway and not having to wait for $2,000 or $3,000 to be able to do it  so therefore, and I can't even believe I'm about to say this because the thought of doing this is about as appealing as a tooth extraction, but if it's going to get me to where I want to be then I'll do whatever I have to and henceforth beginning today Tuesday March 21st 2017, yours truly FlushhDraw, is on a full-time online cash game grind.

It's a whole new ballgame folks and it does not come without certain issues like the fact that cash games online in 2016 were a freakin disaster. Like the fact that I believe cash games have more variance in them then tournaments. Like the fact that I have never proven myself successful in this particular form of poker so why should anyone expect me to be successful now. However, if I can prove myself successful in this I will be able to be playing my live tournaments a half a dozen times a month to start out with because I plan on keeping $500 online and every time I am  $70 above that $500 I will be withdrawing it and headed down to the Golden Nugget for a $70 tournament which generally pay about $600 up top. The first time I bink one of those all of a sudden instead of it being a one shot deal I'm going to have eight or nine more opportunities to keep trying them and and cashing in one or two over the course of those eight or nine following attempts creates more and more opportunities.

Obviously this is a whole new plan and while I have been criticized in the past for changing my plans the way I look at it is you try something if it doesn't work or doesn't work good enough two individual satisfaction, then you try something else and the more you try different things sooner or later you're going to stumble onto one that is perfect for you as an individual. This particular approach has many advantages. The least of which is It gets me in more live tournaments while at the same time always maintaining a 40+ buyin online cash game bankroll and it gets me in the live tournaments much faster even if they are going to be sporadic at first, which gets me out of the house which will thrill my doctors no end, and it will allow me to enjoy my life just a little bit more instead of waking up every morning and saying oh God I got to play online yet again. I think I'm starting to get burnt out by the long hours because my goal seems so far away, but by going about it in this way those goals can be achieved so much faster. It may be sporadic at first and that's okay because when you see even the smallest glimpse of light at the end of the tunnel you're going to run towards it.
I made a withdrawal of over $300 and went out and had a day out yesterday played a couple of tournaments played a little $2/$4 limit however I was not successful. I left $200 online to start the cash game grind and in approximately two weeks another $200 will hopefully be able to be added to this creating that initial $400 cash grinding bankroll so that means I only have to earn $170 at these stupid cash games and my first $70 tournament under this plan.

I am definitely a man alone as as I have become used to people automatically assuming I'm going to fail especially when I step up things and take an aggressive approach. Whether it be strangers or friends the only one that seems to believe in me is me and that's okay because I'm going to be able to show my detractors that even though it took me a few different plans to stumble on the right one that eventually I did get it right and before long I'm going to be sitting across the table from guys like Jeff Boski in tournaments with $10,000 on the line up top. My day is coming I have no doubt about, but in the meantime I'm going to do what I want, how I want, and I will be successful, and I will do it my way. I think that is probably my main theme song in life.



So I suppose the immediate question would be exactly what am I expecting from this cash game grind. I said previously that I think $500 a month can easily be expected. A good player should be able to hit 10 big blinds per 100 hands and I figure grinding 12 hours a day I'll get over 2000 hands played so even if my earn rate is less than that $500 should still be within my range.  On average I'm figuring $20 a day, just 20 little dollars. I don't even want to think about what that comes out to hourly so please no one bother telling me lol, the only thing I'm thinking about is getting to $70 above the $500 bankroll level, then  every 5 days on average over the long term I have the opportunity to play a $70 tournament at the Golden Nugget. That $20 a day and those Golden Nugget tournaments is my soul focus, but only if I can prove that I can actually win playing cash games. After 2016 there is no way in the world I expect anyone to believe I will be successful at this. I certainly did not prove myself last year but I damn well plan on proving myself this year.  I will admit to a certain degree I have a certain amount of pride on the line in this one come but more than anything I see the extra dollars that can be earned and that's what I'm after.

The first day of this started out horrendous, but what the hell would I expect, this is me we're talking about. I hate cash games with a passion due to the variance. Dollar-for-dollar and buyin for buyin cash games must have 300% more variance than the tournaments will ever hope to and it was no different for me starting out today. 900 hands and down $30 three full buyins. Especially after 2016 I'm a little bit paranoid when I'm taking losses so I immediately went over my hands right in the middle of this session to make sure it wasn't my fault per se. I had a full house on three different occasions and lost every one,  I flopped trips twice and lost, and had a straight and lost. These pleasantries added up to two-and-a-half buy-ins of the loss. I was also running pretty card bad as draw after draw after draw just absolutely went nowhere so although I was down $30 at least I knew it wasn't from any errors or mistakes that I had made just the higher variance of cash games over tournaments in general.

After 1350 hands were played I found myself down $18 a nice little comeback do two specific hands that happened back to back on the same table.






1570 hands and and I'm now down only $10 one little buyin because it took over 1500 hands for me to flop a set. If I had flopped a set previously nothing happened past the Flop and I really don't recall flopping a set before this specific one it was nice to get paid off on it and best of all this guy called a flop raise, a turn pot bet, and a 3/4 riverbed with top pair age kicker. Needless to say a note was written down on this particular player. Game over 1500 hands before it gets paid off, talk about running like ice.





Just over 800 hands later I ended the 12 hour session and over the final 800 hands it was dead on break even just about. 2374 hands place an overall loss of $10.19 less a dollar I got in rakeback. A lousy way to start this adventure off, but it's a damn sight better than being down $30 that I was. Today is another day and hopefully if I don't necessarily run hot I just run to expectation. Full houses not getting beat would be a great start.  

Well that's going to wrap this entry up. Let it be clearly understood that I am not doing this because I like it. I am doing this solely for the earnings potential. Overall tournaments for the first three months of the year I ran above 60% ROI, but the amount of the buy-ins just do not and will not produce the money potential available in these $10 No Limit cash games. I'm not doing this because I want to, but as my favorite departed Uncle used to say "Money talks and bullshit walks." Take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

 

16 comments:

  1. Hmmmmm....didn't we see multiple posts from you saying you were a tournament player and that playing on-line cash wasn't for you? I seem to remember that...

    s.i.

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    1. Ohhh you certainly did and I hate playing this cash game shit, but what choice do I have when we are talking over twice the earnings on a monthly basis.

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  2. Adapting in life is important so good by you, FD. Only worry is the hatred you profess for cash games. People typically do best at activities and games they enjoy. How will you separate that hatred from your play? All the best.

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  3. Best of luck with the new direction. If I were in your situation, I would play 2/4 limit and buy in for $60 and try to double it and cash out. This may take an hour of a few hours, not 10+. This will give you plenty of time away from the table to study. Grinding 10-12,hrs per day for $20-30 has and will continue to take its toll on you health wise and mentally. I would be open for a partial stake if you decided to grind out the 60 hr promo at Treasure island playing 3-6 with the $600 rakeback. We all want to see you succeed and this is just my 2 cents.

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  4. this promo likely sucks as much as the columbus promotion of 45 hours per week for $500. felt like work, and i made very little in it.

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    1. FD has proven to put in long sessions on a regular basis. He would be getting $600 cash plus another $120 in comps each week. He would be starting off at +2 BB/hr and his skill would only increase that number. If he shows a win rate of +2 BB /hr he would be at a total of +4 or $24/hr or $1400/week plus comps. This would be a great roll booster that is easy pickings imo.

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    2. I've never met anyone who can make 2BB/hr in a good 3/6 LHE game. The TI game is a nitfest.

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    3. From my personal experience, 2 big blinds per hour win rate in a low limit game is doable with discipline. Even if 1bb/hr wa achieved, $960/week would be a gigantic boost to FD bankroll and allow him to reach his current goal as of this posting. I have not played TI but think a nitfest would make it even easier imo.

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  5. You averaged $225 / month, at 60% ROI. Let's say you played 22 days a month, which means average total buyin of $18.75 a day. Does this seem right to you?

    You played a whole day of cash game, ran like shut but played perfectly, and down one buyin of $10. Does this really seem like Hugh variance?

    What is your win rate at cash games. What do you need your win rate to be if you are to double your winnings than tournaments?

    We have been through this cycle a couple of times now. How is it going to be different this time.

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  6. It lasted a day and a half. I was so bored I was ready to pull my hair out. Decided I would rather quit poker than do it this way. To hell with the potential extra money, I just can't do it.

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    1. I made a comment yesterday that haven't showed up yet, so here is the repeated question. Why is your average daily total buyin so low? Shouldn't you be spending $50 or more each day in tournaments, which @60% ROI, you should be making $30/day. $600 / month should be an easy reach.

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  7. FD, your biggest problem is your lack of Discipline and Patience. You have very little of either.
    Have you paid back any of the money you have withdrawn from your roll? I wish you the best.

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  8. Save $500 and go play $1/$2 NL with 5 $100 buy-ins. Play tight and in position. If you go busto, don't go back to online poker (it's been holding you hostage). You will gain a lot of free time so enjoy life. If you succeed in live $1/$2, you'll be doing what you love. It's a win-win. Just my opinion. Good luck.

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