Saturday, July 1, 2017

Half Year Review

A few comment responses to start things off.

Pokerdogg said:

FD says "I can be out drawn but I cannot be outplayed."

Do you really believe this? I guess this explains why you don't spend time studying and work on your game, you are already the best.

This attitude, IMHO, is not the recipe for success. Even Phil Helmuth, one of the very few successful tournament pro who may say stuff like this in public, I bet he still work on his game and will tell you a different story in private. 

GL as always

It is not often that I do not agree with something that you have commented on but in this particular case Mr. Dogg I disagree with you quite vehemently.  In answer to your question you're damn right I believe that. The fact of the matter is if I don't believe that, if I don't believe that I am the best player in any and all situations that I am in, then I don't belong at those tables. If I walk into the Golden Nugget to play a $70 tournament and I do not have the confidence and attitude that I am the best player in that tournament then I might as well get back on the bus and go home because I do not belong there. The same same goes for online. If I don't go in with the confidence knowing they can't outplay me they can only outdraw me then I never should have entered that tournament in the first place and I might as well shut the laptop off and watch Mash reruns on cable TV because I certainly don't belong in that tournament.

You also assume a lot when you say I am not spending time studying and working on my game. Quite frankly you don't know what I'm doing in regards to this unless you were sitting right here next to me. I am constantly watching videos, checking out forums, trying to find any insight I possibly can. My latest form of study is watching/listening to Daniel Negreanu's Vlog as he has many many many tips for players, goes over hand histories in various forms of Poker and I think it is a valuable valuable tool.

Toodope4u said

So 10nl showed no results at all? I lost chunks on plo bad to play in a budget but 10nl should have resulted in a ltitle gains no?

No I did not. I ended up playing 4 hours and lost like $2.74. I was actually amazed I played as long as I did for as you know I find cash games to be completely boring. Many times rather than play a no limit cash game I'd rather watch paint dry and in this particular case after 4 hours I was sitting at the laptop staring at the screen making my moves like a robotic zombie because there was nothing there to hold my interest. Blinds that don't change, situations that remain constant it almost put me to sleep on more than one occasion.

J Dubs said:

I only know your blog through TBC but lm impressed you can grind such low stakes. If you show some results I'd be willing to stake $100 to play in a few $20 or up tournaments for an agreed upon split. Good luck

Well thank you very much I appreciate the thought of that. Over the last two years on WSOP as far as $20 tournaments go my performance is as follows albeit somewhat limited. Even though the rebuys are $10 they are a total cost of $20 since I always do the immediate rebuy and the $10 KO is also a $20 buy-in total.

$10 NLH KO
6 for 21 / $173.82

$20 NLH Freezeout
8 for 53 / $170.89

$10 NLH Rebuy $1K Gtd
2 for 7 / $171.31

$10 NLH Rebuy $2K Gtd
3 for 18 / ($112.91)

$10 NLH Rebuy $1250 Gtd
4 for 21 / ($13.20)

Obviously I believe that my sample size is far too few for anybody to be willing to stake me to $20 tournaments per se, but as the bankroll grows I will be able to play more and more of these and hopefully be able to improve on the ones that I'm showing losses on and continue making the earnings in the ones that I am showing earnings on.

So on to the half-year review.

February 27th 2017
Bankroll:  $830.68

That was a very pretty sight to see back at the end of February, so where did I go wrong that I am at this very moment in time temporarily busto until Monday. Well first and foremost I can tell you that I was playing $20 tournaments more often than I should have and I was not even adhering to my own personal bankroll rules in playing these. That is one thing that will change in the second half of 2017.

Another issue was too many sporadic shots at live tournaments. Also shots at live tournaments that did not have the structure best suited to me.  Taking sporadic shots at live tournaments is not the way to go. Poker is always about the long-term and even though I can't realistically do a long-term shot live because it just would take too much money and I need a rush of tournaments to build a live bankroll, at the same time I need to give myself a certain number to be played and not in a sporadic sense.  A prime example is for the second half of 2017 and beyond I will not take $45 and end up at Sam's Town in a structure that is not tuned to my game or even take $70 and play a single tournament at the Golden Nugget and instead will wait until I actually have enough money where I can play 10 live tournaments.  They will be at the Golden Nugget where it has the best structure for a $70 tournament in this town. A run of 10 of them may not be very many, but at least it would give me an opportunity to work in a couple of deep runs in there potentially worth hundreds and hundreds of dollars giving me at the very least 10 more shots or maybe even more of those live tournaments to add on to however many buy-ins I might have left out of that initial 10. I think you get the idea. I can't rush it I just have to let it happen naturally and I think I was rushing things in the first half of the year.

There is no doubt that the period of depression that I went through equated to a lot of poor decisions and unwarranted thought processes. Me having suspicions about WSOP is a prime example. I think about that now and the more I think about it the more silly I feel even in my last entry I said I was still a little bit uneasy about going back to WSOP the more and more I think about it the more and more I realize that's a foolish statement. Going over to ACR in that state of depression and playing tournaments that have three and five hour late registrations was asinine. What the hell was I thinking. All three of these things contributed to a steady decline not to mention the post that I did at the end of March which said that I needed to try cash games one more time. During the course of the year I was also playing heads-up SNGs as high as $25,  it did not go well. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results. Enough said.

So realizing errors made, decisions that shouldn't have been made, the real question is how will I rectify that going forward. Well first and foremost I believe that it would be prudent to make sure that I have the standard 100 buyins for the lowest cost tournament I'm playing which in this case will be the $3 tebuys which cost $6 total which means I need at $600 to have 100 buyins for those before I can even consider playing any $20 tournaments.  Taking sporadic single shots at $20 tournaments online is no better then taking sporadic shots at single Golden Nugget tournaments. You need to give yourself at least a few to play to give yourself a chance to get some deep runs and I think 20 is a nice round number for online. So 20 shots at $20 tournaments would cost $400, not forgetting that I want to have $600 so I have 100 buy-ins of the $3 Deepstack Rebuys in addition to that $400 therefore $20 tournaments cannot be played until I have $1,000 available and then I can make a 20 tournament run at them. Now that may be a little different since I will be in a partnership with "Daniel" for the upcoming month of July and if he really felt that it might be positive EV for us to take a shot in a $20 deepstack okay then I would because it's not just me making these decisions for July, but when I am playing everything on my own dime once again, these rules will be followed religiously.

Now for the part of the entry I have been sincerely dteading. What does that make my goal amount going forward??  Ughhh I don't even want to have to answer this. One thing I noticed was initially back in January my goal was set at $5,000. That was kind of sort of particularly ridiculous. I then reduced it in February down to $4,000 and came to the conclusion that that too was ridiculous period in March I had brought it down to $2,000 and that's where it should have stayed but let's face it March and April we're not exactly stellar months in my personal life not to mention psychological well-being, but that's where it should have stayed, but then I ended up lowering it and lowering it and lowering it and then taking shots at a live tournament here and there because $2,000 seemed like it was so far away, but in the end that's what it needs to be, the most reasonable amount when absolutely everything is taken into consideration, but it feels like it's a million miles away and that's why I keep changing and adjusting it, but nonetheless when it comes right down to it my goal has to be $2,000. That will allow me to keep $1,000 online in case my run of 10 live is unsuccessful. It would allow me to return to online and still have a 20 tournament run of $20 tournaments along with the $3 deepstack rebuys and it will give me $1,000 for that run of 10 tournaments at the Golden Nugget.  That will cost $700 and the other $300 will be used for traveling and food expenses and perhaps a limit cash game in between tournaments here and there. There is no doubt it has to be this way and considering I am going to be starting on Monday in a partnership which means any earnings for the month of July I only get half of them it's going to make this $2,000 figure seem like it's billions of miles away, I mean we're talking light-years here, but realizing from the errors of the first half of this year, I don't have any choice.  I don't have to like it, but I don't have any choice in jt. Look where rushing things got me......... nowhere fast.

That's a wrap. Provided no last minute snafus occur "Daniel" is supposed to be sending $180 via PayPal on Monday and then I will deposit the whole $360 onto WSOP the same day. It's a 60 buyin start for the $3 Deepstack Rebuys and I can't wait to get back to work. This not playing poker except for freeeolls is pure hell on earth. So until next time take care everyone and I'll see you at the tables.

Bankroll:  $180
Goal $2000
Progress:  9%

11 comments:

  1. Don't forget there's a reload bonus.

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    1. Unfortunately the reload is useless to me. Let's take the best daily scenario. I have a thousand dollars and can play the $20 tournaments along with the $3 ones. The most points I could earn per day Mon-Fri is 14, and maybe 22 a day on the weekends. In 90 days a max of roughly $160 or $180 could be cleared. Starting out with only the $3 deepstack rebuys the most I can make is roughly 4 points a day. I already have $160 in pending bonus. I mean I can put the code in for the new deposit, but it will simply go to waste.

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    2. Yeah the tournament rake-back is slow. Just figured your current bonus will expire so the new deposit bonus would kick in at that point.

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  2. You sir have no patience. You need to stop lying to yourself before you can make any progress. Best of luck going forward.

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  3. Flush, a recreational player, like me, has a job or another source of income that allows for buy-ins when playing poker. A professional poker player has a bankroll which is used for buy-ins.
    Which category are you in?

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  4. You need to stop withdrawing period. And make your goal $500. Then meet that goal 3x. Mini goals to obtain a larger one. Your denying yourself the satisfaction of meeting goals by setting the bar as high as you do.

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  5. Would love to hear your analysis of your bust-out hand in the 3R today.

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    1. Well there are a few different things that I could say about that going out hand. First of all it sucked wind lol. The blinds were 120/240 with a 25 ante. I was in the CO with KQo, there were two limpers and since I had less than 20 Bigs at that point right then and there I had considered shoving, but at the last second I decided that in order to potentially get the most chips possible I would simply limp along with this one and if the Flop was favorable I could get it all in post-flop thus potentially getting significantly more chips or at least more than I might if I had shoved preflop and everybody folded.

      The Flop was 959 with two hearts. Not exactly the Flop I was hoping for I did have to over cards with a backdoor Queen high flush draw, but considering the paired flop I wasn't exactly feeling too great about this. Four of us had seen this flop and when it all got checked around I knew that did not necessarily mean someone did not have a 9. They could have easily have checked hoping somebody else would bet. The king came on the turn and the big blind checks the guy in MP checks and I felt at this point that no one in this hand had a 9. If the big blind or the MP guy had a 9 I found it highly doubtful they would check twice and if the Button had a 9 I found it highly doubtful that he would check on that flop being the last one to act especially with the two hearts out there. I felt that he would have put in some sort of bet if he in fact had a 9 in his hand so at this point I felt comfortable that my paired king is the top hand at this point. AK would have raised preflop undoubtedly so I felt the likely Holdings of my opponents were a potential flush draw and possibly smaller pocket pairs. At this point with the BB and the MP player having checked this turn I felt a bet was a must considering I felt at the time that I had the best hand so I fired half pot. In retrospect I probably should have bet even larger considering the two hearts were out there but it is what it is and I bet half pot the button folds as does the big blind and then the MP calls. At this point I am thoroughly convinced he is on a heart draw or he has some sort of medium pocket pair. The seven on the river was potentially safe it did not complete the heart draw and at this point the MP checks to me and I've only got 3600 left in my stack. I'm obviously going to make some sort of value bet but with the pot being 2500 and the absolute minimum that I am going to bed is another half pot bet which would have brought me down to Simply 2400 chips I felt that shoving here was the best option. First of all at this point I was pot committed and second of all with MP having such a larger stack than me going to the river he had 28k and me with only 3600 behind I felt very confident that if he in fact did have some sort of medium pocket pair then he will call me such as 88 or 66. Obviously if he has 77 he just Rivered the Full House. He snapped calls my River shove and flips over 55 for a flood Full House. To say that I was shocked that he actually checked this twice would be an understatement. There was no way I put him on 55 in this situation, because I had felt that if someone had a 9 to say nothing of 55 and it gets checked around on the Flop they're definitely going to bet the turn, but he flopped the world and I ended up getting knocked out.

      I pretty much feel that there is no way I could have gotten away from this and no matter what decision I made preflop I doubt highly it would have mattered. With MP having a stack above $25,000 even if I shove preflop I'm sure he's going to call with that pocket pair and as played I was trying to extract the most chips I possibly could but I just ran up against someone who flopped a monster. That's poker not much I could do about it and just move on to the next tournament.

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    2. Thanks for the detailed reply

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